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this post was submitted on 25 Mar 2024
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I don't like the Reddit ownership which is exactly why I switched to here....but this article is a month old, they priced their IPO at $34 and it's currently selling at $55
Obviously this doesn't mean it can't change in the future, but it very much has not tanked.
I’m not a stock expert, but given its historic lack of profitability, that value has to be primarily speculative based on its usefulness for training ai.
I would expect to see that number fall eventually.
Pump and dump bud
I assume it's also priced that way because it can be used for propaganda.
Legacy media, hasn't made a profit for years? There's always some rich fascist cunt or nasty foreign government willing to buy it for more than it's worth so they can push their agenda.
It's not about making money for them. It's about power and influence.
Foreign?
"Our inherently good government with unfortunate rich fascist fucks in it, vs their inherently nasty foreign government"
My government isn't particularly nasty, especially compared to some of the worst autocratic regimes, because they're worried about the next election.
Sucks if that isn't the case for you.
Or just as a marker of how reliant a lot of web denizens are to adding reddit to end of their search for more relevant user generated data. Either way, it's numbers will fall, as a lot of the more recent data often isn't correct.
All stock is speculative.
And some stocks have a 2:1 stock to book value ratio wheras others have 50:1. In the first case, even if the company closed down, unless the books were fraudulent you can still recover half your investment as it represents hard physical valuable assets.
Their capitalization was I believe around 8 billion. This is the number they need to understandably recover from an investment point of view. If I was an investor in a risky type of investment like this. Risky mainly in that it could be a dog forever, I would want to see 25 prevent profit in their financial statements relatively quick.
I am saying this all from an investment point of view of the people that now own it. More or less, Reddit needs to start showning profits of some 1.6 billion a year. That likely means they need 10 or 10s if billions in revenue per year. That will give you an idea what they will be developing and how advertising will need to be excessive. They will go the way of tiktok and other platforms in that emotional and divisive algorithms increase viewership.
The stock price is gonna get juiced for a bit, and then when the blackout period expires, lots of people are going to sell and the price will drop off a cliff. It’s a pretty common pattern in tech. I’m kinda expecting it to happen with Reddit.
Robinhood went public at around $38 a share, climbed its first couple weeks to over $55, then dropped like a rock to like $8 a share. Also look into Beyond Meats.
A lot of big name recognition companies have this happen to them during bull markets. There's an initial run up, followed by a massive over correction and things don't stabilize for at least 6 months after the drop off. As well as reddit is known, it's going to be a hard rug pull.
Same for Rivian. Its IPO was at $78 per share, it climbed up to $130 and it's at around $10 now.
Ugh, don't remind me. I lost my ass on them
Be in the market a while and everyone's lost their ass on a thing or two. You slowly and painfully learn to take the L and bail out of stuff sooner. That helps.
Then sometimes things are just completely out of your control and something happens to a company overnight and you just get obliterated before you/ your broker is able to do anything about it.
What's really interesting is how interested people are in buying puts right now. Today was the first day available to do so. I bought mine pretty early in the day and paid $460 per while the stock price was at $51.
Well it was over $60 by the end of the day, but my put call, instead of drastically going down in value like it should have, was actually selling for $580.
So many people are after puts against reddit that even as the stock went up another 18% throughout the day, puts were continuing to be bought at higher and higher prices.
So now my options are worth $120 a piece over what I bought them for, while reddit jumped another 30% in value from opening this morning to right now where it's sitting at $62.90
Holy shit. I just peeked at put prices, they're all almost double calls, that's hilarious.
That really tells me about liquidity and the IV of your position.
Same here
I bought as many puts as I can
So we finally found out spez's exit strategy?
That’s the entire point of an IPO.