I think most billionaires have a bit of their brain set to believe in themselves rather more than is warranted. It's great for making money, but maybe not something you want to put your life on the line over.
I think it scratches a similar itch as most techbros: "if I can solve this hard problem, all problems are easy!" It's a mentality I see constantly, especially on the orange site.
Problem: exists for decades and has not been solved by experts with tons of funding in all that time.
Redditor with zero knowledge or context: Why don't they just do X, Y, Z? It's so easy 😏
In this case, the problem was solved over 60 years ago. This billionaire decided to reject the tried and tested solution and came up with their own.
I like asking the "why don't they..." question as a genuine question because it's a great way to learn a lot in a short time
It's worse than that. They're narcissistic and think they have the answer to every problem. I worked for a boss like this who had Aspergers syndrome (undiagnosed, but clear case)
He literally had bumper stickers made up with "[his name] is the answer" - he wasn't joking. If there ever was a problem he would immediately solve the problem in his mind, and that was the way we MUST do it. He would not accept rationalization as to why that might be a bad idea. I learned real fast not to tell him we had a problem.... until I already had a proposal, who was involved, and costs involved to fix the problem before he had a chance to solve the problem himself.
There was a study done on this kind of mentality. Researches invited pairs of players and before each game flipped a coin to designate one player rich and the other poor. The rich player was then given more money and an easier set of rules. At the end of the game they interviewed the player that inevitably won, and in all cases the players reported that they won because of key decisions they made while playing. Not one mentioned they got lucky with the coin flip.
Summary and interview with a researcher: https://www.marketplace.org/2021/01/19/why-rich-people-tend-think-they-deserve-their-money/amp/
Study (pdf): https://studenttheses.universiteitleiden.nl/access/item%3A2661526/view
I'm surprised this isn't a named sort of cognitive bias. I think there's a related thing where we humans tend to cite external causes outside our control when we are unfortunate or make mistakes, and we tend to cite our own virtues when we are fortunate and successful.
That guy was a backyard inventor and charlatan, like those 19th century backyard aircraft inventors. It's one thing to take yourself out of the gene pool through your own recklessness, it's another to take others with you.
Rush bypassed over a hundred years of engineering lessons learned the hard way with the rationale it stifles innovation. He even fired and sued one of his own employees for calling him out on it. The sub had zero certifications and then he lied to customers about it saying his designs were approved by NASA and Boeing who never even heard of the guy.
Aside from the lack of safety engineering and lack of proper fail-safes in his design, there's a reason engineers don't use carbon fiber composites in subs. They have a tendency to delaminate. When used in aircraft, composites have to be examined and certified at a regular service interval with special inspection equipment.
I think that sub was an accident waiting to happen from day one. The hull probably failed due to inspection negligence and a failure to detect delamination. That's even if the hull could have been rated properly for 4km. If it wasn't the hull, it would been one of the other jury-rigged systems.
I can't believe people smart enough to acquire the wealth for that excursion weren't smart enough to check out the qualifications of the company hosting it. I think it was plainly obvious just looking at the sub yourself. A navigation system that consists of a consumer laptop PC and Logitech gaming controller should have been a dead giveaway.
I can’t believe people smart enough to acquire the wealth for that excursion
You do not need to be smart to acquire wealth.
Of the people in the sub, I am confident that 4/5 of them were born into wealth, and I can't really find any information on the other one.
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The Dawoods (father and son) were only wealthy because their father/grandfather was wealthy.
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Stockton Rush was also born into wealth, his family made their money from oil and shipping.
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Can't find a lot of information about Hamish Harding, but he was flying aeroplanes at 13 and went to a prestigious private school called The King's School, so it's safe to say he was also born into considerable wealth.
I don't get why carbon fiber was used in the first place. The composite material is known for its great tensile strength: tensile as in tension, not compression. Carbon fiber is actually also known for being lousy at handling crushing (compressive) loads. If you crush carbon fiber, it'll fail shortly after.
Going under water would place the vessel under compressive loads, which at a quick glance would be the wrong type of loads for carbon fiber. That's my initial take on it, however I haven't spent any real time trying to engineer one.
Fiber composites are complex. Carbon fibers can be made to withstand compressive loads in that you make composites with the CF and other materials. Even so carbon fibers are about half as strong in compression as tension. Even so, carbon fiber might have a specific strength of around 3000 kN-m/kg, steels might be around 63 kN-m/kg. So it's not as simple as "carbon fiber isn't as good in compression as tension, never use it in compression." A lot of current research in aerospace is to produce better manufacturing methods and resins for carbon fibers to phase out aluminum and steel parts. Mostly in tension yes, but compression too, all parts without preloading generally are some degree in compression during their stress lives.
Should he have bought expired carbon fiber for a submarine? No. Is carbon fiber completely absurd in submarine usage? I don't imagine so. Though steel is plenty fine for a submarine, normally the hard part is the sinking by design, not the floating, so weight savings aren't super important.
First, he was an aerospace guy and several things he's said make me think he was sort of chauvinistic about deep sea exploration in general, stuff like "It’s perfectly fine. Having all these certifications for airplanes is one thing, but the carbon fiber was perfectly sound."
Second, his business model, taking four people down with him in something other than Cameronesque claustrophia, and doing so without the cost of owning a proper launch vessel, instead renting any ship that could hold and then monitor his launch sled, meant it was critical he make something big and light, by deep sea submersible standards, that was at least nominally expected to handle the load. Shit, I guess in some sense, he did, since it went down and back two or three times or whatever. At the absolute best, though, he'd invented a disposable sub, and he clearly didn't worry about that limitation any more than the rest.
learned the hard way
He learned nothing, he is dead. Hopefully others will learn from that.
"Safety regulations are written in blood"
Honestly, the most surprising thing is that they managed 6 successful dives to titanic before it failed.
And that they convinced multiple billionaires, who are generally assumed to be smarter and better educated than the rest of us, to step aboard that blatantly-unseaworthy deathtrap.
Guess what, billionaires aren't smarter than everyone else. Usually it's just existing wealth, luck and a lack of morals that gets them there.
The system is rigged to make it much much easier to make money if you already have money.
There are a lot of different types of characteristics that get described as 'smart.' Risk aversion is often categorized as 'smart,' as in "I'm too smart to do something that risky," but that is definitely not something billionaires are known for - you can't get that much money without big risky bets paying off.
Rich people don't really seem to be smart so much as they just have a sort of rat-like cunning that confers high performance at screwing people and stealing shit.
On the contrary, I've long been of the opinion that anyone can claim their slice of the American Dream, just as long as they aren't too picky about who they carve it out of. There doesn't even need to be risk, per se, just some ambition, enough intelligence to know the limits of you can get away with, and a complete lack of shame.
I can't believe people smart enough to acquire the wealth for that excursion weren't smart enough to check out the qualifications of the company hosting it.
I have met several gazillionaires. Some are quite smart, some not so much - but every one of them thinks that they’re smarter and more capable than they are
the screen was mounted by screws into the carbon fiber. fuckin' what!?
It’s shocking how many corners one is willing to cut to save money even if it means lives.
Greed. Always greed.
Because this CEO bet his life on his ideas, this would be more about hubris than greed. If it were just greed, he would have bet someone else's life.
The interesting thing is he really seemed to believe he knows better than all the experts.
There are reasons why ships and planes are all highly regulated. Its called physics.
I'm so conflicted on this. On the one hand he seems like a giant asshole that saves on safety to make a few more bucks but on the other hand he trusted his system completely and died with it. So not really greedy asshole but stupid entrepreneur who didn't realize how wrong he was?
Both. The drive to be a cheap pos caused him to believe he knew more than he did.
Physics is just a concept for lame traditional non-disruptors, with the power of magical thinking and endless money we can make hyperloop work!
reading this almost feels like it was merely an effort to perform the most expensive suicide ever.
But then again, it could also seems to have been stupidity and a failure to listen to experts.
Man seems to have been unable to get his head out his own ass and was basically hearing every issue and going "this is fine"
Seems like in any case, he deserves a Darwin award, just sucks that other people went down with him.
From my limited experience with laying up carbon fiber, I know there's the raw carbon fiber cloth and there's liquid resin that you spread into the cloth. It's also very common to see carbon fiber cloth that is "pre-impregnated" - the resin is already applied to the cloth. Everyone calls this "pre-preg".
So I've seen a lot of folks online scratching their heads about "how can carbon expire?" or "my carbon fiber (bike/boat/etc.) is N-years old, is it expired?" but I think the most likely thing to expire is the resin. Once the resin is cured it is much more stable.
Any materials folks or structures engineers who want step in and correct me, please do.
Also most bikes aren't under enough pressure to cause them to implode
It could have been fresh from the factory and would have had the same result It was an improper application of the material to save on the more expensive titanium Same with the acrylic viewport, while not the best material it's the design that was non-standard Quartz would have been better but more expensive Not the time to cheap out on materials, design, nor experience when lives are on the line
I just wish he didn't bring others with him with his hubris. The more info that comes out about this guy, the worse and sadder it gets
How did this man find a lawyer to represent him? What a nightmare client he would be. Basically throwing around liability grenades like it's nothing.
Expired CF is the least of the problems with this project. The overall design was fundamentally compromised.
I am saddened as I read to think about the fact this could’ve been avoided.
I'm saddened by the amount of taxpayer money that was spent searching for 5 millionaires who went missing while on a joyride in a test vehicle.
Actually, money could have been saved... here's why:
- The US Navy's submarine detection network heard a "boom" on the day of the implosion, which they kept close to their chests...
- Sounded the alarm, they spent money and resources looking for something they were almost sure was lost...
- After the expiration of time when the submarine "could be recoverable" was when they said "well... we did heard something the other day"...
Imagine the other possible scenario where the say on the first day "Hey, the sub imploded, we heard it on our underwater microphones, we won't spend money looking for these people..."
And then a future investigation reveals that they got stuck somewhere or lost power but were "buoyant" for 48 hours or so, and died for lack of oxygen when no one was looking for them.
Can you imagine the lawsuits?
Easier way to say it is that there was just no way to be sure what that boom was.
If the guy weren't dead he'd be sued to death.
I know this entire sub was a shitshow, but... It had an interior wall. Stuff was mounted to that, not directly into the outer hull.
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