Musk is their ally too so I doubt it
this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2025
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new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with destructive orbiting clouds of shrapnel
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That's what Starlink satellites will become on their own.
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The trash cloud won't go away, it'll stay up there destroying future satellites as well.
We could very well permanently fuck ourselves over with this, and arguably already have. Because the people putting satellites up are just worried about short term profits and nothing more than a decade from now.
All Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, including Starlinks, are in orbits that naturally degrade due to atmospheric drag. They require regular boosts to stay in orbit and will naturally de-orbit and burn up in the atmosphere at end-of-life. Look I hate corps and Musk as much as all of us, but let's at least get the facts right.
If the satellites are destructively attacked this could change. Debris could be thrown to unpredictable orbits, which could destroy other sattelites, and get the ball rolling on Kessler syndrome.
LEO is like…. 1/10th of actual orbit… there’s zero chance that happens.
You're probably right, but I'd really like to not have anything blown up in orbit.
More worried about the tons of shrapnel falling down to earth and not burning in the atmosphere.
These satellites are designed to fully burn up on reentry. There is effectively zero chance of that.
On the flip side, the aerosols created by burning satellites destroy the ozone layer.
But it won't be a uniformly higher orbit, because there's only one event where energy was added to the fragments. The perigee will still be in LEO and anything that'd raise the apogee to a point where the new orbit would be stable for a decade would require so much energy that it'd vaporize the satellite on impact.
It doesn't need to launch to stable orbit to date another orbiting satellite.
No. Just pointing out that a collision in LEO physically cannot create a situation where we're locked in on Earth for more than a decade or two. The orbits will still have a perigee in LEO. They will still decay. The debris will still burn up eventually. Kessler syndrome is impossible in LEO. And in higher, larger volume orbits, it's overblown, because we don't even have enough mass there to create a notable debris field to lock ourselves in with.
A Kessler cascade is one of those things that people read about and it sounds really scary and plausible and happening, like, in a week cause Starlink exists. And that's where the thought process stops and the Chicken Little everyone has in their brain takes over.
Yeah, I was confusing the long-term problem of re-entry with the long term problem of staying up there...
Even with heat shields they warm up the atmosphere and release particulates and gases
But you're right.
Some see doom. Some see a race for lightweight mega armored satellites.
There is a simple solution: Musk will simply purchase the USA and use that military arsenal as a deterrent.
(/s... maybe)