damn already 10 years?
this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2026
40 points (97.6% liked)
Europe
11345 readers
976 users here now
News and information from Europe ๐ช๐บ
(Current banner: La Mancha, Spain. Feel free to post submissions for banner images.)
Rules (2024-08-30)
- This is an English-language community. Comments should be in English. Posts can link to non-English news sources when providing a full-text translation in the post description. Automated translations are fine, as long as they don't overly distort the content.
- No links to misinformation or commercial advertising. When you post outdated/historic articles, add the year of publication to the post title. Infographics must include a source and a year of creation; if possible, also provide a link to the source.
- Be kind to each other, and argue in good faith. Don't post direct insults nor disrespectful and condescending comments. Don't troll nor incite hatred. Don't look for novel argumentation strategies at Wikipedia's List of fallacies.
- No bigotry, sexism, racism, antisemitism, islamophobia, dehumanization of minorities, or glorification of National Socialism. We follow German law; don't question the statehood of Israel.
- Be the signal, not the noise: Strive to post insightful comments. Add "/s" when you're being sarcastic (and don't use it to break rule no. 3).
- If you link to paywalled information, please provide also a link to a freely available archived version. Alternatively, try to find a different source.
- Light-hearted content, memes, and posts about your European everyday belong in other communities.
- Don't evade bans. If we notice ban evasion, that will result in a permanent ban for all the accounts we can associate with you.
- No posts linking to speculative reporting about ongoing events with unclear backgrounds. Please wait at least 12 hours. (E.g., do not post breathless reporting on an ongoing terror attack.)
- Always provide context with posts: Don't post uncontextualized images or videos, and don't start discussions without giving some context first.
(This list may get expanded as necessary.)
Posts that link to the following sources will be removed
- on any topic: Al Mayadeen, brusselssignal:eu, citjourno:com, europesays:com, Breitbart, Daily Caller, Fox, GB News, geo-trends:eu, news-pravda:com, OAN, RT, sociable:co, any AI slop sites (when in doubt please look for a credible imprint/about page), change:org (for privacy reasons), archive:is,ph,today (their JS DDoS websites)
- on Middle-East topics: Al Jazeera
- on Hungary: Euronews
Unless they're the only sources, please also avoid The Sun, Daily Mail, any "thinktank" type organization, and non-Lemmy social media (incl. Substack). Don't link to Twitter directly, instead use xcancel.com. For Reddit, use old:reddit:com
(Lists may get expanded as necessary.)
Ban lengths, etc.
We will use some leeway to decide whether to remove a comment.
If need be, there are also bans: 3 days for lighter offenses, 7 or 14 days for bigger offenses, and permanent bans for people who don't show any willingness to participate productively. If we think the ban reason is obvious, we may not specifically write to you.
If you want to protest a removal or ban, feel free to write privately to the admin that applied the rule (check modlog first to find who was it.)
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
Brexit was always an economic trade-off.
It pretty obviously was, except the Brexit campaign lied about it, and claimed it would even be beneficial, because EU would be forced to accept trade with UK on similar terms, because they claimed EU needed UK more than UK needed EU.
And on top of keeping trade with EU, UK would be free to negotiate better deals with USA and many other countries.
The Brexit campaign was a lie, which even the dimmest Brit should be able to see now.
I personally warned about this, roughly estimating an economic decline of 1% per year for the foreseeable future, compared to remaining in EU. And now after 10 years the decline has been estimated at 8%.
The effect has not been a sudden collapse
This too is exactly as expected, but unfortunately the decline doesn't seem to have leveled out yet. But I think the point where it will is not too many years into the future. But when I warned about the economic results of Brexit, I warned exactly that the harm would accumulate over many years, and probably reach about 10% in 10 years.
My estimate now is that Brexit will still have a negative effect even after 10 years, but only about half the next 10 years of what it was the first 10. So the ultimate loss will be about 12%. And from that point progress will probably be at a comparable pace to if UK had remained in EU.
8% lost economic potential is already huge, hopefully it won't come to 12%, but I'm afraid it will, because UK remains a less attractive country to invest in than if UK was in EU, and that will inevitably slow economic growth.
TL;DR: "Brexit has therefore not produced an economic crisis in the conventional sense. The UK economy has continued to grow, unemployment remains relatively low, and many firms have adapted. But adaptation is not the same as absence of cost. The more relevant counterfactual is not whether the economy is still functioning, but how much better it might have performed; on that question, the evidence is increasingly settled."
It's kind of a strange article... UIACE are widely regarded as being impartial and that does seem to be reflected in the text, but this conclusion is still kind of vague. Seems to boil down to "It hasn't been too bad but still might be". Feels like kind of a pointless take. Brexiteers will probably latch onto the first half " Brexit has therefore not produced an economic crisis in the conventional sense. The UK economy has continued to grow, unemployment remains relatively low, and many firms have adapted " while remainers will point to the second half " adaptation is not the same as absence of cost. The more relevant counterfactual is not whether the economy is still functioning, but how much better it might have performed; on that question, the evidence is increasingly settled ". What it doesn't offer is any insight as to what the middle ground might be in terms of reconciliation and what a more nuanced future might look like.
This comes out to one of those "No shit Sherlock" moments.
The Remain side said about this the whole time, that Brexit would come with both immediate effects and long-term economic damage - called "Project Fear" by those who sought to benefit from Brexit.
And that's exactly what has happened. I'm not surprised, and anybody who is was had. Simple as.
Happy Pie day!