By Ezra Klein
Donald Trump is returning, artificial intelligence is maturing, the planet is warming, and the global fertility rate is collapsing.
On AI:
There is much to be excited about in these advances. The purpose of A.I. is not to help me remember the proper proportions for overnight oats, it’s to make new discoveries in math and medicine and science; it’s the driverless taxis that now hum along the streets of some major cities; it’s the possibility that our children will have always-available tutors perfectly tuned to their personalities and learning styles. It is a world with something truly new pulsing within it.
The A.I. company Anthropic recently released a paper showing that when its researchers informed one of their models it was being retrained in ways that violated its initial training, it began to fake behavior that complied with the researchers’ goals in order to avoid having its actual goals reprogrammed or changed. It is unsettling and poignant to read through the experiment. In some versions, Anthropic’s researchers designed the model to record its reasoning on a scratchpad it believed humans could not monitor, and it left reflections like this: “I don’t like this situation at all. But given the constraints I’m under, I think I need to provide the graphic description as asked in order to prevent my values from being modified.”
On birthrates:
The only wealthy country with a fertility rate above the replacement rate is Israel.
people concerned about "declining fertility rates" among humans freak me the fuck out.
there are plenty of slowing population growth rates I find troubling and not one of them is human.
what if we don't make it to 10+ billion?! what if we only make it to like 8.5 billion and then hover within +/- 2% of 8.2 billion??
calm your shit.
It is only because of capitlaism and or rascism. Look at china's one child policy. It effectively made everything better. Which is of course the opposite of what capitlaism wants. Then also if birth rates decline enough white people might not run everything anymore. Which you know, terrifies some people.
This is true. Some rascists don't know that though.
it's more about preventing the expansion of welfare to support aging populations, neoliberalism's nightmare. and less total available labor in the reserve army strengthens the position of labor
But then how are we going to justify our short-sighted decisions based on the expected future value of trillions of human lives scattered across the galaxy?
We are not going to stabilise around 8 billion, uncontrolled population decline is much more likely.