this post was submitted on 11 May 2026
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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is from this Bloomberg article, depicting world oil inventories plunging towards the operational floor at which pipelines and refineries cease operating, which is expected to occur in September at current rates.


A pretty short preamble below, in spoiler tags.

summaryThe conflict continues to be kept at a relatively low level despite Iran's fiery encounters with US destroyers. I think it's only becoming increasingly obvious that the US is trying to cobble together some major clandestine operation mixing special forces, the air force, and naval destroyers to either seize Iranian uranium, take control of Iranian seaports, or both. Given a) how the Istafan op went, b) further Iranian preparations around sensitive sites, and c) a seeming strengthening of Iranian air defense around the Persian Gulf (multiple drones and manned aircraft have squawked emergency codes and potentially been shot down over the last few weeks), I find it difficult to imagine this operation fulfilling its objective, and even if did somehow work, why the removal of uranium would necessitate Iran ending the blockade and the war. On that note, I've seen reports that Iran is saying that if the US attacks their oil tankers again, they will resume firing on US military bases.

Additionally, Aragchi has stated that not only has Iran's missile/launcher stockpiles not gone down from pre-conflict, it has actually increased by 20%. This is unsurprising given the total war that Iran is now in; all resources within reason must now be funnelling towards drone and missile production.

Atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon are continuing. The toll that FPV drones are taking on the common Zionist soldiery are quickly becoming apparent, as we are receiving ever-increasing amounts of footage of vehicles and gatherings of soldiers being struck by Hezbollah's drones. The casualty situation is, as expected, being hidden, but any kind of serious occupation of even the border villages of southern Lebanon (let alone up to the Litani) seems unsustainable.


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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

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Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
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English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 6 points 3 days ago (1 children)

part 2 of 2Against the ‘Safe’ Bet

This brings us back to the defeatist declarations of Left intellectuals that I was mentioning earlier, who insist that the Bolivarian Revolution has already ended, that the government has capitulated, that what remains is little more than a hollow shell. From the outside, this can appear as realism. From within, it reflects a profound misunderstanding of the process. At its core lies a failure to grasp irreversibility.

Those who declare or imply that everything has been lost tend to focus on the government as if it were the sole repository of the revolution. From that perspective, any concession or retreat appears as definitive proof of collapse. What disappears from view is the accumulated political experience of millions of people who have learned, over decades, to organize, deliberate, and act collectively—and, through that practice, are also able to identify errors, advance critique, and push for rectification when needed.

This omission is not neutral. It often reflects either a Eurocentric lens that renders the Global South’s political subject invisible, or a crude geopolitical lens that privileges institutional form over lived experience and underestimates the agency of organized people. From that vantage point, the revolution becomes something that can be declared “over” from afar. From where I stand, that claim does not hold. ** Declaring that “it’s over” is not simply an analytical mistake; it has political consequences. It makes it harder to struggle in a very difficult historical moment, contributes to demoralization, and weakens the collective capacity to navigate difficult terrain. ** It is always, of course, a much “safer” intellectual wager to declare capitulation, to distance oneself, to preserve analytical purity—it is safer since the reality on the ground is rarely pretty and never certain. But that is a wager made from the outside. Within the Bolivarian Process, the defining feature has been different: a refusal to abandon the struggle while conditions remain open. Moreover, accusations of treason or capitulation are not only false but also politically harmful. They flatten complex dynamics into moral judgments and obscure the strategic terrain on which the process unfolds.

This is not simply a question of competing narratives, but of how reality itself is produced and understood. In Venezuela, these narratives encounter a specific difficulty: they collide with a politically organized movement that has learned to interpret reality together.

There are, of course, decisions in which people do not participate directly, but the debate is always present. Moreover, in robust communes, life does not follow a logic imposed from above; it is produced together, forged in assemblies and in everyday practices. That is why listening to the Chavista base—sometimes critical of specific policies but supportive of the government—matters: it makes it possible to distinguish between what is said about our reality and what is actually lived.

To defend the Bolivarian Revolution in 2026, then, is not only to denounce external aggression. It is to defend and deepen the processes through which a pueblo is learning to govern itself. And what has been learned does not disappear with a policy shift or a moment of retreat. It persists as capacity and consciousness. And that, of course, has material implications in the struggle.

There are no guarantees of victory. Revolutionary processes unfold in adverse conditions, shaped to some degree by forces that are often beyond their control. Marx compared the revolution to a mole that might go underground but remained a telluric force. What exists in Venezuela today is not an exhausted project waiting to collapse. It is a people that has learned—unevenly but decisively—to organize, to study reality, and to struggle collectively.

That accumulated experience cannot be dismissed or wished away. Nor can it be abandoned in favor of the intellectually “safe” prediction of defeat. Chavismo, forged through years of struggle and marked by a historical accumulation of political learning, remains a force with the capacity to defend, correct if necessary, and advance the process.

[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 9 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (2 children)

I am again finding myself reading something written by someone way more experienced and knowledgeable than me that is pretty much laying out the same analysis I was just saying here days prior. Using the same analytical tools, you too could learn to understand things as a Marxist instead of just rolling over for imperialist narratives and uncritically repeating them without evidence.

Borrowing from the language of this excellent piece, anyone pushing imperialist narratives about Venezuela from the left right or center is doing the pedagogical work of imperialism. You are a putting in work to enforce the imperialist ideological narratives which are blatantly anti-Marxist. You are erasing the ongoing movement which millions are actively engaged with over decades in an attempt to make people think you are smart by distancing yourself from actual revolutionaries in case they lose. You care more about "I told you so" than anything even vaguely resembling integrity as an actual leftist, which yes, does require a spine to be more than a role playing exercise. You have to actually stand up to difficult things with courage and not just fold constantly and run away from conflict.

Unfortunately, some Left sectors end up reproducing a similar framework, albeit in a different language. When they suggest—explicitly or implicitly—that what has occurred in Venezuela after January 3 amounts to treason or capitulation, they not only misrepresent the process; they also erase the agency of the Venezuelan people. In doing so, they reproduce a logic that reduces Chavistas to spectators, rather than recognizing them as protagonists of a process they have actively built and sustained.

This is doing exactly what imperialists and colonizers want you to do, because it is what they are doing. You are doing what they are doing. You are on the same team. You too have erased millions of humans and reduced them down to fit into your colonial image of them as a subjugated people deprived of all agency. You too have plucked out a handful of scenarios from the vast and ongoing movement of time and used them to construct a thin attempt at analysis which falls apart immediately if you take even a cursory glance at the information available and use it to form your analysis instead of bourgeois news headlines. I'm not in Venezuela and yet with the information I have available, I can come to the same conclusions as someone actively on the ground there. Anyone can do that, and many people have. If you haven't, you could choose to just not speak on things you don't know about, but if you are actively perpetuating the imperialist line you are a counter revolutionary, plain and simple. You are actively fighting in the disinformation campaign against Venezuela on the side of the US.

When Mao said combat liberalism, this is one of the the types of shit he was talking about, and some people here not only let it slide, they embrace it. Why? Why would you embrace liberalism to such an extreme and overt degree? Could it be that you are also a liberal that has never struggled for anything? The millions of Chavistas who have been actively struggling for their revolution for almost three decades certainly can't give up on their movement, but it is very easy for some liberal on the internet to wear the skin of leftism and shamble around proclaiming that a revolution has died because the imperialist news has declared it so, and to even go further to claim that such a fetid and rotting perspective is not only correct but the correct Marxist position. It has been appalling to see a lot of people who I assume identify with the left since they are here, but can't identify with Marxist analysis, can't identify with revolutionaries engaged in struggle, and can't help themselves but doom because of imperialist headlines written with the sole purpose of convincing people that Bolivarianism is dead despite the millions of active participants and decades of struggle. Again, you don't have to attempt to engage with things you don't know about. It is fine to just lurk or ask questions without declaring yourself to be someone who is (hopefully) volunteering to help imperialists out by spreading and agreeing with their perspectives.

This does not imply that support for the government must be uncritical. The relationship between popular power and the state has been contested at times since the early days of the revolution. There have been moments when the government distanced itself from the communal project, only to return to it later under pressure from organized sectors.

I have always welcomed valid critiques and commentary on the failures of any leftist or left movement. There are plenty of tactical defeats to look at with Venezuela this year, and doing so honestly is essential. But wreckers pretending to "critique from the left" while just repeating bourgeois news outlets and providing no real evidence to support their claims, refusing to engage with counter arguments, constantly strawmanning or changing the subject are not engaging in valid discussion on the topic and only work to sell the lines of the state department. It ceases to be leftist discourse and needs to be fought against or else it is just inoculating a bunch of well meaning baby leftists with doomer brain worms

[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 8 points 3 days ago

To indulge in irresponsible criticism in private instead of actively putting forward one's suggestions to the organization. To say nothing to people to their faces but to gossip behind their backs, or to say nothing at a meeting but to gossip afterwards. To show no regard at all for the principles of collective life but to follow one's own inclination. This is a second type.

This is basically the vast majority of criticisms on social media. Criticism is supposed to be directed at the people or org you are criticizing for the sake of them correcting themselves instead of being shouted at the ether to randos. Critique of the Gotha Programme was originally a private letter that Marx wrote to the SDAP that only got published when Marx died and the party moved on to drafting the Erfurt Programme.