this post was submitted on 17 May 2026
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Amazed it took them this long to finally start cutting supply lines from Europe.
At the beginning of the video, the situation in the US is similar to the current situation in Russia. There's also something going on with government bond rates and depositor confidence, only the numbers are different. All those forecasts can be projected onto Russia as well.
I also really liked that Ma was hit with US sanctions..)))
This can also be mirrored in Russia, where Russian oligarchs are hit with sanctions and are willing to do anything, even betrayal, to get the US to lift the sanctions. Oligarchs are saboteurs because their actions and intentions can run counter to state interests. Even if, as I've been told here, oligarchs in China have no influence over the state.
It's hard to imagine how much of his money Ma has taken out of China. He's essentially robbing the country.
No, I don't think it will be systemic.
For now, everyone is waiting to see what Russia will do. There's a strange silence.
Seems like what Russia is going to do is take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk at which point they will control all of Donbas and there's going to be a big panic in the west. I personally agree with the analysis here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xgcv0PiLJTY
Basically, Russia is winning and right now situation is under control. Any type of escalation will introduce uncertainty, so there is little point to gamble by doing that.
It would be a major success for Russia if it could capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of the year.
But that is not the whole of Donbas.
For the most part, everything depends on how Russia handles strikes deep within its own territory.
Last night, Ukraine launched an attack involving more than 600 drones.
Russia is currently trying to push drone launch sites back beyond the Dnieper River. They are destroying gas stations and truck stops where drone launchers might potentially be located; on this side of the Dnieper, the Russians have already destroyed 160 gas stations. So far, there are no fuel shortages in our city.
In Russia—even as far away as Siberia—there are massive, miles-long lines for gasoline.
As I said back in the spring, Russia needs a decisive push to turn the tide. Right now, things aren't going very well for Russia in that regard.
Russia is also currently losing the information war.
Not quite, Comrade. Right now, the situation at the front is mixed. The AFU is still conducting successful counter-offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Russia has lost the territory it had previously captured there.
Russia is seeing successes in other sectors as well, though the pace is not as dynamic. In some areas, the situation has been at a standstill for months.
You surely realize, Comrade, that Russia’s very slow rate of advance—combined with the fact that Ukraine can strike Moscow—is precisely what convinced Trump to drastically change his opinion.
No matter how weak the US might be, Russia is going to face a very difficult time in the coming months.
One more brief note: Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with Storm Shadow missiles for the first time—this set a precedent.
Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale. And that's what's happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.
Russia has been shit at information war since the very start. They never really cared about it. It's possibly a mistake, but that's just how it is.
And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.
I don't think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there's nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there's no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.
I do think we'll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we're coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he's the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn't been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don't have any new tricks to play here.
And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.
Yes, but as you realize, strikes deep inside Russia are dangerous primarily due to their impact on the media narrative, which undermines Russia's internal stability.
Did you see that a new Prigozhin has appeared recently? Peskov has already spoken about him. He is threatening Putin, just like Prigozhin did. This means the Russian elites have now gotten involved—exactly what we discussed earlier.
However, it seems to me that the situation inside Russia remains stable for now. Everything is still under control.
Drones are buzzing constantly; yesterday they bombed a gas station where I used to fill up often. That’s what I heard.
For now, though, there are no shortages or panic buying of gasoline in the city. But the situation is worsening; Russia has changed its attack tactics. There have been up to two hundred drones a day—no more than that—for the past two weeks.
No, Comrade, I’m arguing from the opposite perspective—or rather, trying to strike a middle ground.
After all, the propaganda claims Russia is losing; I’ve never said that. Russia won’t lose, but it might not win.
It wouldn't have won anyway if the Anchorage agreements had been implemented! And those agreements looked nothing like a victory! They looked more like a disgrace.
That’s the premise I’m working from, not the propaganda.
In essence, I’m saying the same thing Putin is saying,
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6a411d079a79474cc1ecfd21
...except that, unlike Putin, I don’t have that rock-solid confidence that things will end well for me. Do you understand? For me! I couldn't care less if they celebrate an imaginary victory back in Russia—not if I’m still stuck in this "prison"!
By my count, this is already the fourth "difficult phase." They somehow overcame the first three—the "gesture of goodwill" near Kyiv, the retreat from Kherson, Prigozhin’s mutiny... and now, the strikes on oil refineries and Moscow.
Each of these "difficult phases" narrowed the scope of the Special Military Operation; eventually, it all shrank down to the size of the Donbas...
It’s as if time has dragged us back to square one.
The situation is a bit different now. Ukrainians have advanced and dug in at two locations; they’ve been building up their forces there for several weeks. The Russians can't dislodge them...
Wow... that was loud—those are guided aerial bombs; they fly in pairs. I'll find out later what exactly it was.
Anyway, back to the point.
Right now—let me repeat—right now, neither side has an overwhelming advantage!
Also, how do I turn off this fucking Starlink!
At the moment, I don't see any signs pointing to that—though, of course, I could be wrong.
A strike would have to begin with a demonstrative nuclear test in an uninhabited area, followed by a broadcast to the entire world as a warning. Only then would the actual strike follow. Putin won't even commit to a demonstration. China might not like the idea.