this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2025
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SNAP benefits are set to wither Nov 1. depending on the state and if they contribute anything to their EBT/Nutrition Assistance, or if they work some plan to cover these funds, the 10-12% of the US population on "food stamps" won't be getting their November allotment. thats one week from today.
there have some regional extreme weather events which qualify for federal disaster declarations to access subsidized loans, but that process has been frozen since day 1.
giant institutions don't shut off like switches. they fall apart over time, especially ones that have been hit with shocks before like the US central government. competent administrators of big programs try to build in a buffer of funding so they aren't subjected to the brinksmanship of washington's partisan games over a few days' symbolic shutdowns.
when they are cut off, though, whatever funds still exist begin to drain away and whatever projects have the most political clout are prioritized to stay open. like ICE and the military.
the first few days people laugh it off and say "I don't even notice, the government prob doesn't matter then lol" which only feeds austerity talking points.
if we make it to day 60, i guarantee you are going to experience it in some way, even though many states will step in to try and soften the blow / shoulder the burden. and many states won't step in to protect their vulnerable populations, so experiences will be very distinct.
i support the federal workers on furlough and think this shutdown has insurrectionary potential, but i am not going to pretend like real people with very limited political power are the ones who will be hurt the most by it.
The second snap benefits go away, there will be riots. Millions will be out of food
do you think this could happen? these have happened so frequently I literally haven't been paying attention and your comment is the first I've read about this shutdown, how did the republicans fuck this up?
i don't even know anymore. i think the pain point of SNAP benefits would ordinarily break something loose, as would whatever the holy-shit is going on with still unpaid air traffic controllers when that finally shits the bed. that is when some pretty big political machines would step in and force a short term coalition of concessions everyone can take credit for. last time it was air traffic control stuff that pushed everyone to the table.
but, we passed the exit for ordinary a while ago with all the DOGE shit, the inspector general firings, and all the other "the executive isn't supposed to do this" crap with illegal buyouts, unlawful RIFs/firings and politicized restructuring. also, the unitary executive taking back the power of the purse (at least in terms of cuts) and the destruction of some huge programs i'd never thought i would see get the axe, like USAID. that was a keystone of the imperial machine and the intelligence apparatus, i thought it was a law unto itself with a perfect cover mission. but i guess baby huey managed to actually break some shit.
all that to say, i think the various players and powers that made up the old backroom deals are too dislocated for the typical mechanisms and back-channel conversations to happen. probably a lot of people with their own career aspirations are "over" trump steam rolling everything, so if it were me, i'd be inclined to step back from taking any initiative to let Mr. Deals go ahead and eat this shit sandwich he made.
i think the longest shutdown we've had before was like 35 days, which would be like 10 days from now to tie the record. 6 days until SNAP implodes.
Did snap break that other time too? It must have if 35 days
i don't think so, i believe it was later into the fiscal calendar (like December i think) so some programs had some portion of their operational funds available and could float a little longer.
this particular shutdown came exactly as the federal fiscal year ended (September 30)/began (October 1) again which is an administratively complicated time already, so i think that's why this one is resulting in more rapid degradation.
like the one-off troop pay thing is crazy, where they had to "find" funds from some pre-existing multi-year project agreement to repurpose. that's new.