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Zuck is into Jui Jitsu, he can probably actually beat you up.
I learned and taught self-defense for many years. Enough to say you can never know for sure about someone, I've seen some really unassuming people turn into beasts in the sparring ring, and seen some big, tough dudes not be able to take a light gut punch.
All that said, I would be shocked if someone like Zuckerberg could handle the swift, primal, animalistic speed and violence that comes with an actual fight. He lives out-of-touch with the world and doesn't have to watch his back on the bus ride home or learn how to spot dangerous people ahead of him hanging out in a parking lot. Even if he's really good at katas and sparring, it's a far cry from actual fighting, and survival comes from as much mental preparation as it does physical.
I've got a similar background and agree with your conclusions, especially the "you don't know" part.
I just put in a couple of stories, but think I might have been over-disclosing, so I removed them.
Anyway, you're right: there's sports martial arts, and then there's real fighting. Sports martial arts has rules, and in addition to that, in real fighting, the stakes can be much higher. Not getting maimed is far more valuable to me than a trophy from some tournament.
When I finally got to the point that I was learning knife-fighting, my teacher told me "If you get in a knife fight, even if you win, you will probably lose." And went to tell me stories of bar fights where both participants died later, or the person standing at the end lost an eye or ended up with permanent, disfiguring or debilitating injuries like severed tendons and organ damage.
I don't want to get in fights. I do everything I can to avoid fights.
Even still I've had to fight home invaders, it's incredibly scary when you don't know what someone is going to do, what they're carrying, or how it's going to end and you know you have to fight to survive. The post-fight emotions and feelings are insane.