107
Buyer in Arkansas wins $1.8 billion stocking stuffer in Christmas Eve Powerball drawing
(www.nbcnews.com)
this post was submitted on 25 Dec 2025
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I bought a ticket this time around, and I understand statistics. I understand that my odds of winning are infinitely better with one ticket than no tickets. But the difference between one ticket and more than one ticket is inconsequential. So one ticket it is.
I also understand the odds of winning Powerball are about 1 in 300 million. So once the jackpot gets over 600m or so, the expected value is high enough to justify buying that one ticket.
So, when I see the jackpot get big, I buy a ticket, and dont get my hopes up.
You'd be better off contributing that ticket's cost as a contribution towards an index or money market fund. Reliable returns compared to that ticket lol
There's also the entertainment value of the ticket.
No no, I understand the improbability and don't play, which means I'm better than everyone who does. Quit having fun. Right? Right?
Not only do you recognize the improbability but also the carelessness of throwing that $2 away instead of buying $2 worth of stock which would allow you to retire 3 minutes earlier 35 years from now.
Nah, there's nothing wrong with having fun. It's just that you'll likely never experience the win in your lifetime, so I'd rather use that collective money over time to buy a couple steam games or something, ya know?
Nah that’s fair. It’s just nothing you do in a game will ever matter, so I’d rather use that extra time to daydream and talk to my friends and family about what we’d do as billionaires, ya know?
Fair enough.
The odds of $5 into an index fund turning into $700 million are in fact lower than the odds of winning the Powerball. An occasional gamble in the Powerball is not going to end my retirement plans any more than the occasional latte or avocado toast.