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Image is of a harbor in Tasiilak, Greenland.


NATO infighting? You love to see it, folks.

The latest incident of America's satrapies becoming increasingly unhappy about their mandated kowtowing involves, of all places, Greenland. As I'm sure most people here are aware, Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark with a degree of geopolitical and economic importance - the former due to its proximity to Russia, and the latter due to the proven and potential reserves of minerals that could be mined there. It's also been an odd fascination of Trump during his reign, now culminating in outright demands.

Trump has called for negotiations with Denmark to purchase Greenland, justifying this by stating that it would be safer from Russia and China under America's protection. Apparently, Norway's decision to not give him the Nobel Peace Prize further inflamed him (not that the Norweigan government decides who receives the prizes). He has also said that countries that do not allow him to make the decision - which not only includes Denmark, but also other European countries - will suffer increased tariffs by June, and that he has not ruled out a military solution.

This threat has led to much internal bickering inside the West, with European leaders stating they will not give in to Trump's demands, and even sending small numbers of troops to Greenland. The most bizarre part of this whole affair is that the US already basically has total military access and control over Greenland anyway, and has since the 1950s, when they signed an agreement with Denmark. There are already several US military facilities on Greenland, and B-52 bombers have famously flown in the vicinity of the island (and crashed into it with nuclear bombs in tow, in fact). Therefore, this whole event - in line with his all-performance, little-results presidency so far - seems to be largely about the theatrics of forcing the Europeans to continue to submit to his whims. I would not be surprised if they ultimately do sign a very imbalanced deal, though - the current European leadership is bound too tightly to the US to put up even half-hearted resistance.

This is all simultaneously occurring alongside the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China in which longstanding sore spots in their bilateral relationship are being addressed, with China reducing tariffs on Canadian canola oilseeds, and Canada reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as currency swaps between their central banks, among many other things. It seems no accident that Canada's reconsideration of their relationship with China is occurring as Trump has made remarks about turning Canada into the next US state, as well as the demand for the renegotiation of the USMCA.


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Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
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Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

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https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
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https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

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https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 66 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (3 children)

US Army Air Defense assets are likely on the move towards the Middle East.

Bit late on this one, but earlier today several C-17 Globemaster III aircraft gathered at the runway at Fort Hood, Texas, and are in the process of flying to Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, before moving to various bases in the Middle East. Fort Hood is home to the 69th Air Defense Artillery Brigade of the US Army. Subordinate units hosted by Fort Hood include:

62nd Air Defense Artillery Regiment:

  • THAAD battery B
  • THAAD battery E
  • 1st Battalion, PATRIOT battalion.

44th Air Defense Artillery Regiment:

  • 1st Battalion, PATRIOT battalion.

5th Air Defense Artillery Regiment:

  • 4th Battalion, PATRIOT battalion.

For a total of 2x THAAD batteries and 3x PATRIOT battalions at Fort Hood. A PATRIOT battalion usually consists of 4-6 PATRIOT batteries/fire units each, for a total of 12-18 batteries/fire units. THAAD and PATRIOT are used in conjunction to intercept tactical ballistic missiles, forming a layered defence network. The AN/TPY-2 radar of the THAAD system can also be used to extend the engagement range of the PAC-3 MSE interceptor launched from the PATRIOT system, as PAC-3 MSE is sensor limited, not kinematic limited. In other words, the PAC-3 MSE interceptor has enough energy to go further than the PATRIOT radar can "see", so the THAAD radar can be used to extend the range of the PAC-3 MSE. PATRIOT can also shoot down air breathing threats such as cruise missiles.

Fort Hood also hosts the 6th Battalion of the 56th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, who specialise in Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD), and in shooting down unmanned aerial systems (drones) using the Stryker M-SHORAD and other systems.

So it is likely that air defence systems are being moved to the Middle East in the military buildup against Iran at this point in time. Obviously we don't know what exactly is being moved and how much. But it does show that the US is taking the possibility of a pre-emptive Iranian strike or Iranian retaliation seriously, deploying air defence systems before deploying further tactical fighter aircraft and mid air refueling tankers. Current aircraft are in already heavily defended locations (Qatar) or close enough to Israel that they are under coverage of existing air defence systems there (Jordan).

9x C-17s present at Fort Hood in order by Hex code, Registration and Callsign:

  • AE49C1 09-9205 - RCH 872
  • AE146D 07-7175 - RCH 423
  • AE080F 99-0169 - RCH 849
  • AE123B 04-4130 - RCH 550
  • AE1465 06-6167 - RCH 577
  • AE1468 07-7170 - RCH 851
  • AE1471 07-7179 - RCH 347
  • AE2FA4 08-8192 - RCH 874
  • AE4D68 10-0215 - RCH 455

Source, flight tracking

Collaborating source

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 26 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Are the two THAADs from the earlier fighting still in Israel, or did they get rotated out? The US adding another two and putting over half (or just half, I'm not clear on whether the new 8th battery has actually properly entered service yet or not) of their THAAD inventory in just one region would be pretty wild.

Anyway, here's to another quarter of the THAAD interceptor supply getting eaten up stonks-down

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 17 points 3 days ago

It's kind of impossible to say what is being moved exactly and how much. But 9x C-17s is not enough to move everything at Fort Hood, that's obvious. Last time moving a PATRIOT battalion took over 70 C-17 flights and dozens of C-17 planes. 9x C-17s could be one PATRIOT battery, but it's very difficult to say. Usually when THAAD gets moved, C-5Ms are involved. What could be done is moving just the AN/TPY-2 radar from the THAAD system to work with PATRIOT to extend the range of the PAC-3 MSE interceptors, creating a mini THAAD of sorts. But again, it's impossible to say exactly what is being moved and how much. All we know is that it's quite likely that air defence equipment is being forward deployed.

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 33 points 3 days ago (1 children)

One way or another, I think we ought to expect a war tomorrow.

The insider traders betted by January 31st, but it seems more likely to be this weekend.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 32 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

It's impossible to say if or when. The US can always strike with cruise missiles at anytime if they want, there's never been a limitation there on actually doing that, they don't need to forward deploy anything to do a cruise missile strike. The limitation comes down to what kind of strike campaign the US wants to do, and handling the inevitable Iranian retaliation. That's why I think the previous cruise missile strike was called off and used as a fake-out/bluff, and the US still doesn't have enough forward deployed I think. Moving a PATRIOT battalion last time took over 70 flights, with dozens of C-17s. And C-5s for US THAAD operated on Israeli soil. And the only aircraft forward deployed on land currently are F-15Es and A-10s, no F-35As, F-16CJs, etc to supplement the aircraft carrier. While the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has F-35Cs and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods, and could launch strikes on Iran on it's own, I'd think that the US would supplement it with more forces in the Middle East.

[–] skeletorsass@hexbear.net 5 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Use the THAAD radar with Patriot probably is most important for ballistic missile defense. Radar is built for this purpose and do not also need to be regular SAM radar. Ballistic trajectory have high angle fast speed small target work best with very powerful X band radar. Can not make stealth ballistic missile so precious X band is perfect (but mach ~10 will begin to weaken signal by plasma mach ~15 will produce fₚₑ > radar frequency and block but different problem and no radar solution). Large aperture, high power, weather filter but less worry about ground clutter. Work much better because do not need to worry about regular SAM limitation of lower altitude and more mobile target. Long flight path for interceptor will be okay because ballistic trajectory can be predicted.

It can use the normal radar as well together? Probably I think.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

It's a hybrid system, THAAD fire control system and radar with PAC-3 MSE interceptor launchers. In this setup the Patriot radar is not involved for longer range engagements. The TPY-2 is really all about increasing range, PATRIOT is very capable of intercepting ballistic missiles on it's own, but is sensor limited when used with PAC-3 MSE. When you want to engage longer range ballistic missiles, MRBM class, at longer ranges themselves to increase defended area and probability of kill, you also have to engage at higher altitude and the PAC-3 MSE has the kinetic energy, but the AN/APQ-65 can't get a good enough track apparently. Which is why PATRIOT is getting a new radar, the LTMADS, so this hybrid system of THAAD and PATRIOT won't be needed in future to max out the performance of PAC-3 MSE. This hybrid THAAD - PATRIOT setup is especially relevant given ammunition stocks of THAAD Talon vs PAC-3 MSE. There are a lot more PAC-3 MSE interceptors in existence than THAAD Talon.

Video showcasing test of hybrid PATRIOT - THAAD system

Can not make stealth ballistic missile

Infrared signature will always be very high and satellite detection of a launch unavoidable in this respect. But the radar cross section of re-entry vehicles is inherently small. Most are conical or biconical and not that large, with small moving aerodynamic surfaces, or no aerodynamic surfaces at all if unguided or using just altitude control rocket motors for course correction. (Israeli Blue Sparrow/Golden Horizon is the latter, Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle that only uses altitude control system of small rocket motors/thrusters). If the adversary trying to intercept the ballistic missiles lacks early warning satellites, and the re entry vehicle detaches from the booster early enough, it's possible that it could be missed by radar. Look up the requirements for the S-300V/SA-12 air defence system in detecting low RCS objects on re-entry, the Soviets expected Pershing re-entry vehicles to have a small radar cross section (0.05m² RCS).

Video on S-300V air defence system, timestamped interview with Veniamin Pavlovich Efremov, Chief Designer of Krug, Osa, S-300V and Tor air defence systems. States that S-300V was expected to intercept re-entry vehicles with an RCS of 0.05m² at altitudes up to 30-35km

From the book Lightning Bolts - first maneuvering re entry vehicles by William Yengst, a comparison between the RCS of a Tomahawk cruise missile and Pershing-II MaRV.

Our mid-January 1978 meeting with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) was less helpful than Mike, Jack or I had hoped. Two subjects were on the agenda: (i) in-flight survivability of Pershing-II versus Tomahawk (GLCM) and (2) distribution of important targets in Warsaw Pact nations. The meeting began with a blunt declaration by a DIA senior analyst, who claimed, "Warsaw Pact radar systems would never see Tomahawk cruise missiles."He declared the radar cross section of the cruise missile, as seen from the forward hemisphere, was under 0.1 square meter (roughly one square foot), similar to the size of a "sparrow." With no measured data but only analytic estimates, we contended the cross-section of Tomahawk was closer to a few square feet nose on, increased near the beam to over 10 square meters (i.e. about 100 square feet) and reduced somewhat through the rear hemisphere. The wings and tail surfaces would have a large radar cross section, particularly if the missile flexed or vibrated during flight. By contrast, experience with observable signatures of reentry vehicles suggested Pershing-II would have an order of magnitude smaller radar cross section throughout its reentry trajectory.

but mach ~10 will begin to weaken signal by plasma mach ~15 will produce fₚₑ > radar frequency and block but different problem and no radar solution)

The Lightning Bolts - first maneuvering re entry vehicles book has some interesting stuff on tracking objects moving at high hypersonic speeds through plasma, I forgot what exactly but it's something the US was very interested in during the cold war.

[–] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: