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Counterexample: Biden's victory in South Carolina combined with most of his primary opponents dropping out and endorsing him all at once carried him to victory, aided by rich person backing. Newsom can use a similar strategy to win the 2028 nomination.
This just shows that money can boost a candidate but not make them happen if they don't have the ability. Biden was the default, the refuge after all their other candidates weren't demonstrating an ability to go the distance. If money alone was enough, they would have just stayed with Harris.
Newsom doesn't have the history to be that default option. Why choose him when Buttigieg is out there, no longer just a mayor, or Beshear is telling his red state success story, or Kelly is out there as a purple state astronaut? Plenty of moderates to choose from with better stories and better personalities.
You would be right if voters have an unbiased objective view when voting. However, Newsom's rich backers can get the press to talk up Newsom while making hit pieces on his opponents. Like, if Newsom won South Carolina by only a few percentage points, the NYT could write a piece with the headline "Newsom slams primary opponents by winning South Carolina in a landslide. Buttigieg expected to drop out".
And don't forget all the paid infiltrators on social media looking to tip the scales in Newsom's favor. Reddit will be filled with articles about why Newsom is the one and only viable candidate in the Democrat primary. Facebook will get a ton of Newsom advertising. Dating apps will have bots profiles that say Newsom is the bot's favored candidate.
And only a handful of people bother to track down primary sources themselves. They will absolutely fall for the social engineering and support Newsom in droves.
Again: If they could have done that to win the primary, they would have stuck with Harris and done it. Or if they were secret Biden stans the whole time they would have managed Iowa and New Hampshire to not be such a failure for their chosen one. They're reacting and tweaking, and they have more effective and more efficient options.
In light of the recent news of the DNC report, which of those options is willing to call what's happening in Gaza a genocide? Buttigieg is a great communicator, but it won't matter if the message is Republican light.
I don't think any of the moderates have the ability to put the threat of fascism behind us, but I think Buttigieg could definitely talk his way through the issue and maybe triangulate a position to say just enough without ruffling donors' feathers. Or maybe he'll just be a progressive in the next run. I think he's a chameleon and went moderate simply because the progressive channel was full up.
Though really, I think Harris probably could have done that too. People really wanted to like her and not have to deal with that "genocide" cognitive dissonance. Her and Biden's failure on that front really was an extraordinary level of political obstinance.