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145
Bulletins and International News Discussion from March 6th to Whenever We Reach About 3000 Comments - The Third Iran VS US+Zionists War Megathread (hexbear.net)
submitted 3 days ago by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net
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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.

Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.

Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

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[–] junebug2@hexbear.net 40 points 2 days ago (1 children)

i looked through the reports from the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) that @WashedAnus posted, and this is a summary of what they had to say about notable equipment. When i say notable, i mean mostly radars, missiles, air defenses, and jets. It’s probably half projects that have been tested and approved, and half projects that have stalled or have no shot. Apologies for the length, the whole thing is over the character limit for one comment.

ArmyAN/APR-39E(V)2 Radar Warning Modernization (MRWR): An upgrade for army helicopter radars. The main contractor is Northrop Grumman. The testing results are all “yet to be analyzed”. Not currently in use.

Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD): integrated fire control network for Patriot radars, Patriot batteries, Sentinel radars, and engagement operations centers. The contractors are Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin. Performance evaluations in 2024 were “unchanged from [the] classified March 2023 IOT&E report”. There are apparently delays and inconsistencies with Modeling and Simulation tools for the various sensors. Recommendations include completing deficiency corrections from 2023. Presently half vaporware.

Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (Dark Eagle): The Army’s hypersonic missile, with two AUR missiles per TEL, 4 TELs and a Battery Operations Center per battery. The missile was designed by the Navy, and the Army has not yet successfully fired it. In theory, these missiles will also be launched from Zumwalts (lmao) and Virginia-class submarines. They intend to have fielded an initial battery by 2027. The contractors are Lockheed Martin and Dynetics. The strategy for testing this missile is still being developed.

Mounted Assured Positioning, Navigation, and Timing System (MAPS): anti-jam antenna for vehicles in areas where GPS is degraded or denied. Seems like some classified deficiencies cropped up between 2022 and 2024, but those were fixed. IOT&E was completed two years ago, and this antenna has been fielded on at least some Strykers since “4QFY25”, which for the federal government means July-September 2025. The contractor is Collins Aerospace. Minor issues with troubleshooting and integration with other electronics exist, but the antennae are apparently operationally available 99% of the time.

Sentinel A4 Radar: Theoretically, a 3D X-band phased array radar. In practice, system immaturity, production delays, and a lack of funding and test resources mean that the tests and test timelines are not possible. Planning isn’t finalized. As of 6 months ago, this project didn’t seem to be moving much. The contractor is Lockheed Martin. In addition to the inability to actually get the radar, this system also has issues with Modeling and Simulation.

Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense (DE M-SHORAD): A “50-kilowatt spectral beam combined laser powered by lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (Li-NCA) batteries” on a Stryker hull. These have apparently been deployed overseas since February 2024, and they are getting a drip feed of data from in theatre assessment. The contractors are Kord Technologies, RTX, and General Dynamics. The in theatre assessment is being performed by the Army without a test plan, and the DOT&E is not involved.

NavyAdvanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile - Extended Range (AARGM-ER): a missile that uses a passive multi-mode seeker to guide towards radio frequencies before switching to active millimeter wave terminal radar. The upgrade over the AARGM is a larger diameter and shorter length so it can fit inside an F-35A or C, a new warhead, and a new rocket motor for (as you might have guessed) extended range. The contractor is Northrop Grumman. The only issues described are software related, which are hardly irrelevant but probably easier to solve. Should have been available for operational use starting 6 months ago or so.

Aegis Modernization Program: The Aegis Combat System consists of the legacy AN/SPY-1 radar, the AN/SPY-6(V)1 radar on Arleigh Burke Destroyers, a Phalanx Close-In Weapon System, a 5 inch gun, vertical launch system for Tomahawks, SM-2, SM-3, SM-6, and Evolved Sea Sparrow missiles, AN/SPQ-9B or SPS-67 surface search radar, AN/SLQ-32(V) electronic warfare suite, AN/SQQ-89(V)15 undersea warfare suite, and the hardware and software to integrate all of that stuff. It seems to me that the modernization program is bringing cruisers and destroyers that aren’t Flight 3 up to date with the Arleigh Burkes. There are some deficiencies in the anti-submarine suite. Interestingly, no mention of Aegis Ashore. The contractors are Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.

Air and Missile Defense Radar (AN/SPY-6(V)1): an S-band radar made up of radar modular assemblies. The RMAs are self-contained digital transmit/ receive modules. The version here (the one on Arleigh Burkes) has 4 fixed antenna assemblies made up of 37 RMAs each, for 360 degree coverage. There are several variants that use fewer modules and cover different angles. The DOT&E thinks the testing done so far has been inadequate, but i think this might be an interagency responsibility feud more than a testing failure.

Next Generation Jammer Mid-Band (NGJ-MB): Two pods containing active electronically scanned arrays mounted under the wings of the EA-18 Growler. This version has more power and longer range then the jammer it is replacing. Integrated testing was completed in July 2024. The Navy then put it on units in the field with an older version of the software while the IOT&E still hasn’t finished yet. The contractors are Raytheon, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman. There are reliability issues, but they are pretty sure they solved all the hardware ones and now it’s just software.

Standard Missile 6 Family (SM-6): The Navy’s newest and fanciest air defense missile. It receives mid course adjustments from the Aegis System. It finished testing in March 2024, though the DOT&E didn’t get all the data they want. The Navy seems very happy to sideline these guys and run their own tests. There are variants with extended range, and apparently it can be launched at targets in the air, at sea, and on land. i don’t think we’ve seen the SM missiles used for bombardment. The contractor is Raytheon.

[–] junebug2@hexbear.net 19 points 2 days ago

Air ForceAdvanced Battle Management System (ABMS): The only component of this system that has done operational tests is the Cloud-Based Command and Control (CBC2). In theory, this system contains the CBC2 plus distributed battle management nodes, digital infrastructure, and aerial networking. The contractor for the cloud thing is Science Applications International Corporation, Inc. This is an IT company from Virginia, with a notable pivot when Obama appointed their president of engineering as Secretary of the Air Force in 2013. The software has completed 5 minimum viability capability releases, but the sixth was delayed for software immaturity in 2024 or 2025. Personally, i hope as much decision making is integrated with the cloud as possible.

Air Operations Center - Weapon System (AOC-WS): A system of systems that uses third party, commercial, and agile software. It’s coordination software for all the different streams of data coming into a command. There are two versions: the AN/USQ-163 Falconer, called Increment 10.1 and currently fielded, and Block 20, which is an upgrade including the “Kessel Run All-Domain Operations Suite (KRADOS)” and AppTX. A respectable military in a civilized country would have court martials just for how awful some of these names are. The first one (Falconer/ Increment 10.1) has been in the field since 2012. There are apparently regular Agile releases for the Falconer, and it seems like “KRADOS” is either still in testing or fielded in limited numbers. The Air Force claims Block 20 is not sufficiently mature for operational testing. The contractors are Raytheon and my new favorite, Science Applications International Corporation, Inc.

B-52 Radar Modernization Program: Swapping legacy radars for the AN/APQ-188, which is used on the F/A-18 and F-15E/EX. Integrated testing is supposed to happen this year, with the testing expected to be done by 2028. 28 aircraft are being fitted in FY26, and the plans for the remaining 46 will follow testing results in FY28. The contractors are Boeing and Raytheon. Shockingly, there have been technical delays on a Boeing project. Also, the cybersecurity testing needs more work.

F-15 Eagle Passive Active Warning and Survivability System (EPAWSS): A system of of warning radars and counter measures, this upgrade is necessary for Air Force plans to use the F-15EX as an air superiority fighter. This has been tested and brought into full production as of 2024, with plans to retrofit all F-15EXs and 99 F-15Es. DOT&E notes that while the system has performed well in testing, the testing environment did not represent modern threats. There are many concerns about how well the system would perform against electromagnetic attacks, with significant discrepancies between ground and air performance. The contractors are Boeing and BAE Systems.

F-16 Radar Modernization Program: Replacing legacy radars with the APG-83 SABR. This finished testing at the end of FY23, and full production was approved. There are some concerns about the APG-83 interfacing with the legacy systems in the F-16 mission control computers, network architecture, and data system. The contractor is Northrop Grumman.

GPS: This one might be worth reading in its entirety. Warning for .mil link. The specific issue seems to be delays in developing a new control system for military code and civilian signals. This has been in the works since 2010, and if there were no further delays it would be implemented between 4QFY25 and 1QFY26. The new receivers have also been delayed. The satellites seem to be doing alright though. There are several contractors working on different aspects of this.

Space Command and Control System: Frankly, more cope about using hybrid cloud computing. No operationally relevant data has been produced from tests, no operational test objectives have been completed, and the project has been continually delayed since it started in 2019. The contractors are Parsons Corporation, Omitron Inc, Tecolote Research Inc, Systems Planning and Analysis Inc, Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Peraton Inc, Palantir, L3Harris, Leidos Inc, and ManTech.

Three-dimensional Expeditionary Long-Range Radar (3DELRR): A prospective radar for “long-range detection of both air-breathing threats and theater ballistic missiles”. It’s going to be a single faced, rotating active electronically scanned array. It is supposed to enable long range surveillance, command and control, and air traffic control. The contractor is Lockheed Martin. Testing was cancelled in 2024 for system deficiencies, though testing of a newer version should be happening now or just recently finished. Apparently this testing is done by dragging spheres with known radar cross-sections behind airplanes, which i find somewhat amusing.

The AircraftF-35 Joint Strike Fighter: The longest individual entry by far. The F-35A is the conventional take off version for the Air Force, the F-35B is the VTOL version for the Marines, and the F-35C is the carrier compatible version for the Navy and Marines. The Block 4 with avionics upgrades was approved for full production in March 2024. The TR-3 avionics components are part of what makes the Block 4 upgraded, and apparently no combat capable TR-3 aircraft have been delivered to US Services to date. In July 2024, the Air Force accepted the first 2 TR-3 Lot 15 F-35s, which were delayed because of the need to create a truncated form of the software on account of incomplete upgrades from TR-2 to TR-3. It is not known what combat capabilities these models are currently missing, and the integration of TR-2 capabilities is in the works. The contractors are Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney. Many tests have been incomplete or inadequate because final versions of software were unavailable. They estimate that the TR-3 F-35s will be ready to go and finished with operational testing by no earlier than mid FY26. The tables in this one are very informative, warning again for .mil link. Logistics availability was something of a known problem for this jet. It appears that the F-35 has software troubles to the point that it isn’t clear how many jets delivered over the last eighteen months are fully combat capable.

F-15EX Eagle II: A version of the F-15 with fly-by-wire controls, digital helmet systems, a touch screen display, and an improved early warning/ counter measure system (discussed above). It also has 4 additional air to air weapons stations. i assume this means externally. Full production was approved in June 2024. Some but not all of these models have been cybersecurity tested. The contractors are Boeing, RTX, and General Electric. According to testing, it is capable of defensive and offensive counter-air operations against fifth generation adversaries.

F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler: The DOT&E would like you to know that they are not happy with the Navy constantly deciding some program is ‘good enough’ and then ghosting the remaining testing processes. The contractors are Boeing, Raytheon, GE Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin. The Navy was performing a three part test and release program for upgrades, and it seems like they did proper operational testing for Release 1, and then just sort of did enough software and hardware upgrades to blow past Releases 2 and 3. For the Growler this is the same upgrade process as the jamming pods mentioned above. The Super Hornet was testing a new anti-ship missile. Release 3 for both planes has been in the field since September 2024.

E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: An airborne command and control platform that receives biennial hardware and software upgrades. Contains data links, electronic warfare equipment, and a phased array radar, amongst other things. The contractor is Northrop Grumman. Operational effectiveness and cyber survivability are classified. Reliability and logistics support are known issues.

CMV-22B Osprey: a vertical/ short takeoff and landing aircraft. i only include this one because it has lines like “Analysis of CMV-22B survivability to operationally relevant kinetic threats indicated that the aircraft has similar survivability as the legacy platforms and discovered no new nor unexpected vulnerabilities,” and “Navy testing did not uncover any new failure mechanisms.” i mean listen, sure, it fails sometimes, but at least it’s failing in the old predictable ways. Isn’t that reliability?

F-22A Raptor: Apparently the results are classified, but the DOT&E complaining about a lack of “Open-Air Battle Shaping” instrumentation on test aircraft is not.