A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.
Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.
Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.
All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.
However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Mojtaba Khamenei is officially the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. Everyone in the Shia World is quickly coalescing around him, but it's an uninspired choice imo. I don't think that transitioning the system in Iran towards a hereditary monarchy is the correct path forward, especially for someone without a strong public profile and that lacks the necessary Islamic credentials. I would be more comfortable with Sadiq Larijani or Alireza Arafi. He's "just" 56 years old though, that's a choice that will last for years unless the Epstein Coalition kill him. I hope he can serve the people of Iran and the Shia masses well.
It's definitely a symbolic choice, and one that was made under extraordinary circumstances: if Ali Khamenei wasn't martyred and Iran wasn't at war atm I really don't think Mojtaba would have become Supreme Leader. It's definitely a big middle finger to Trump who specifically named Mojtaba as an "unacceptable choice" for him, and other Ayatollahs hinted their decision would be influenced by Ali Khamenei saying his successor should "be hated by the enemy".
I also read that Mojtaba was strongly backed by the IRGC (and also served in the Iraq-Iran War) so that was probably a big influence behind the choice too.
to add to the symbolism, his full name is "Mijtaba Hosseini Khamenai"
Yeah, dynastic rule is not great, but it does go hard in the context of replacing the old man the enemy hates with the closest thing possible to a younger clone of him.
*Chants "30 more years" in the style of "4 more years"*
I guess it's the most Shia thing they could've done. Almost every political-spiritual Shia leadership role has resulted in some kind of dynastic rule in the end from the start of the Shia Imamate after the death of the Prophet, to the Fatimid caliphate, to the Zaydi Imamate, to the Aga Khani Ismaili dynasty, and now it's only logical that it continues 1400 years later.
NGL, I think myself and quite a few others in this thread need this sort of scoop. We just don't know if Mojtaba Khamenei has any credentials as a religious leader, an iranian politician or as an administrator. I'm not shia or anything, I just wouldn't know. But it did come across as a symbollic choice, or perhaps as the only real choice possible under duress with the IRGC operating under a sort of 'continuity of governance' type of mobilization. A second Khamenei is at least pallatable to the political factions within the iranian political system in a time when unity is paramount so I can see the rationale.
Also since there's a non-zero chance the person you select will be martyred in the next few months, it's probably best to pick the guy who just lost his entire family to this and is most likely willing to accept that risk.
You don't want to put the guy you really want in charge on that pedestal right now. That's total speculation though.
I generally agree that hereditary succession is not really a great option, although you won't hear me say that outside of this community (or other closed, anti-imperialist leftist circles). I've seen rumors this is who the IRGC wanted, which makes sense potentially given that was was in the Ground Forces during the Iran-Iraq War and is rumored to at least have significant influence over the Basij, although the sources are questionable. I think this was probably cemented when Trump made those comments about him earlier this week about him being a "lightweight" and a choice that he wouldn't accept. Now they are thumbing their nose at him. Hopefully this ends up being a good choice.
He's chosen because he was in charge of the IRGC.
I think it's funny tbh. "Ha ha, we got rif of Khanenei... and replaced him with Khamenei".
It's a mockery of the regime change attempt.
This is the first succession of power for the position, hell if I know if I'd call it "hereditary/dynastic" just with this.
I believe I'd heard in some analysis vid quite a while back that the son is closely affiliated/engaged with the IRGC; I imagine that's the more important point. It might be good optics (though the only optics they should need to care for are their own people, and the Shia world in this context) not to pass it down another generation after, though. But what definitely matters most is keeping the revolutionary core of the state intact (even if it isn't exactly proletarian, in this struggle and in many other things due to circumstances that won't change too much for the foreseeable future it is the same as and vital to the entire cause of the rest of humanity). I imagine it's that kind of consideration that was in play, especially when the country is being besieged by the west, now open in their intent to wage unprovoked war until all of west/central Asia (and ultimately the world) is a destabilized, fractured, helpless hellhole they can prevent from developing forever..
Not to mention, the west are the ones trying to push the shah's failson who never even has stepped foot in the country to be leader instead, the west is full of "constitutional monarchies" and political/economic dynasties, and back a swathe of absolute monarchies in the region and around the world.
Hows Mojtaba Khamenei relation with Ahmadinejad nowadays?
I don't believe it's necessary hereditary, but it's a safe option as well as a unifying one for the nation
Because, who else would be most similar to the previous leader in connections and affiliation with the public without harming or causing potential internal strife if not a designated heir and someone close to the previous leader?
it's a symbol of defiance and continuity of government, while also a nod to the ascendant hardliners as he is not as anti-nuke or restrained as his father. his support base is the IRGC and basij right?
I think the basic requirement is to be a Mujtahid, which he is, and i don’t think his father was an Ayatollah either when he got elected. Which was the reason the requirement for the Supreme Leader to be marja was removed in 1989 after the death of Imam Khomeini.
I think it's better that he does not have a public persona, it means he is focused on scholarship. He is not a marja but neither are the other 2 you mentioned. And while that particular larijani seems like an ok guy; the larijani failsons as a group are associated with corruption, neoliberal technocracy and the reformist camp.