this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.


Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.


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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

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Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 65 points 21 hours ago* (last edited 21 hours ago) (4 children)

lol. lmao. https://archive.ph/PNrJG

Israeli officials are growing concerned

A bombing campaign nearing its military goals in Iran leaves the hardest questions unanswered.

more

A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy. Talk of an endgame is early, and a decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with President Donald Trump, who continues to seek all-out victory. But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war discussed alternatives to Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.” The official requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the Iran situation. Trump has wavered among several conceptions of the outcome. He spoke at first about a negotiated settlement with pliable members of the regime but has since demanded surrender because, he said, his preferred negotiating partners are dead. Like Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants to press on to what he described Saturday as “the moment of truth.” The disdain for negotiations expressed by Trump and Netanyahu may deepen after Sunday’s announcement that Iran’s new supreme leader will be Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the previous head of state who was killed in a massive airstrike on his compound Feb. 28. The new leader is a hard-liner who, if anything, is even closer to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps than his father was. Not a man for the bargaining table.

What concerns this official and others I’ve spoken with the past few days is that the cost of the war continues to rise — for gulf states pounded by Iranian missiles, for a global economy that’s facing steep increases in oil and natural gas prices that could trigger a worldwide economic crisis, and for Trump himself, who took the United States to war without a popular base of support for the conflict. “I’m not sure it’s in our interest to fight until the regime is toppled,” said the Israeli official. “Nobody wants a never-ending story.” The official said the Israeli and American bombing campaign was nearing the point of achieving its military objectives. It was close to destroying what was left of Iran’s nuclear program after U.S. bombardment in June, as well as its ballistic missile inventories and weapons-making factories,

uh huh, sure

along with the top tiers of its military, intelligence and internal security forces. When I asked how long it would take to complete this military mission, the official wouldn’t answer. “Of course, we wish to topple the regime, but that’s not the only endgame,” the Israeli said. Once the major military targets have been eliminated, “Israel would have achieved its goals,” he explained. “Iran won’t surrender, but it can send messages to accept a ceasefire with U.S. conditions.” To be clear, this official wasn’t speaking for Netanyahu, who said Sunday that in the next phase of the war, Israel wants “to destabilize the regime, to enable change.” But the official’s views do appear to express a view shared by some within the defense establishment, which became frustrated with Netanyahu’s determination to continue combat in Gaza without a clearly defined endgame and remains skeptical about his strategic planning. “We don’t see anyone who can replace the regime,” the Israeli official said, summarizing a view shared by U.S. and Israeli intelligence analysts. He said the regime’s centralized command-and-control structure was weakening, and there were early signs of internal rifts — but nothing to indicate that a crack-up is close. The Israeli said he doubted that arming the Kurds or other minorities would be a good strategy because it would alienate the Iranian majority.

Israeli defense planners appear to have two other concerns. One is the risk that Netanyahu will order major ground operations in Lebanon to complete the destruction of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. “We don’t want to be dragged into the quagmire,” the official said, expressing concern at another point about “the slippery slope of Lebanon.” “We are willing to engage with Lebanese officials,” including President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, to “reach agreement on a ceasefire” there, the Israeli said. He said Israeli ground troops were inside Lebanon to attack the remnants of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force near Israel’s northern border, but “we are not planning large ground operations.” Israel wants to avoid a repeat of the 1982 ground invasion all the way to Beirut, which many Israelis came to view as a bad mistake. A second concern expressed by the Israeli official was maintaining good relations with the United States at a time when Americans in both political parties are voicing growing concern about the alliance. “We won’t drag the U.S. into an endless war,” the official said. “Israel is a reliable ally,” not a burden, he argued. Trump has set his course for the annihilation of the Iranian regime. He speaks about creating a new Iran that reflects that country’s yearning for freedom and modern life. But he doesn’t appear to have anything approaching a plan for achieving this worthy goal. And he’s going to have to answer the Iraq War-era question I heard reprised this weekend: Tell me how this ends?

[–] glimmer_twin@hexbear.net 47 points 21 hours ago

It’s afraid!

[–] jack@hexbear.net 36 points 21 hours ago

what if the ground invasion is the IOF ferret-poggers

[–] CriticalXipport@hexbear.net 8 points 16 hours ago

what winning sounds like

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 22 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

The only way Israel is getting out of this is either getting Bibi to go into exile to a country that won't extradite him to the ICC or giving him the same treatment he gave Rabin.