this post was submitted on 11 Mar 2026
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I don't think it's entirely Epstein, that'd be facile. But, I do think that if trump is good at anything, it's generally PR/spin but Epstein is the one thing he hasn't been able to spin to get his base on side. And it's an issue where he, and his administration look increasingly bad (think Lutnick, the mishandled redactions, credible witness interview saying trump assaulted a 13 year old etc.)
It's also a matter of fact that trump has been acting much more erratic since the Epstein bill. Notably, carriers etc started building up in the South American theatre as the Epstein Transparency Act was being passed, with Maduro, Greenland and now Iran shortly after the initial deadlines.
Add really bad advice (oh yay, a Fox News host as secretary of defence), a cadre of yes men without the adult guardrails of the first administration and a streak of risky decisions not backfiring (e.g., striking Iran's nuclear facilities and kidnapping Maduro) and you can see the stage being set for increasingly bad decisions.
Again, I don't think it's ALL Epstein but I do think trump is desperate to keep people distracted and that he doesn't plan long term. So yeah, he's probably been wanting to strike Iran and now that his mental calculus adds "keep people from talking Epstein" to the benefits column and that may be enough.