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The U.S. Army War College* has released a brief overview of "Lessons from the War in Ukraine".
(press.armywarcollege.edu)
You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.
Thesis:
- military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
- The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
- In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.
In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.
- The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
- every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
- IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
- These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
- the 70's concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
- The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.
War on Terror. Military and its benefits wascab easier sell pre 2001. Get money for college, learn a trade, see the world - its peace time, and because of The End of History there's never going beva real war. 9/11 caused a bump in blood and soil reaction requirement, but 20 years of getting shot at inbthe desert for no reason, 20 years of people you know coming back and being disabled or psychologically scarred or commiting suicide, 20 years of the gov not taking care of veterans from your commity that you know. All that eats away at that veneration - whether people express it that way or not.
Not to mention the monumental "Nothing" achieved by the vast majority of the war on terror (besides enriching the MIC, but that doesn't get trumpeted).
Americans across the entire political spectrum understand the War on Terror as an immense criminal act based on lies. Even those that still have an overall positive view of military personnel. It cannot be overstated just how much of a catastrophe that was -- obviously for the innocents -- but also for the military itself.
Most Americans may still be indoctrinated with various forms of shitlibbery but the US military has lost trust for generations. I don't think the US will ever be able to mobilize the meat fodder needed for a great power conflict without a draft and a draft would start a civil war. That's why these ghouls have to rely on vassals and PMCs now.
A draft wouldn't start a civil war, but it would be a speedrun of the public's response to the Vietnam War, including a disintegration of the Army's ability to fight and direct action against recruiting efforts. We'd likely see much more support for that direct action, too.
Unironically a draft would be the best opportunity for American MLs possible, short of federal bombing of American cities