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The U.S. Army War College* has released a brief overview of "Lessons from the War in Ukraine".
(press.armywarcollege.edu)
You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.
Thesis:
- military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
- The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
- In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.
In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.
- The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
- every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
- IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
- These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
- the 70's concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
- The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.
Why has recruitment dropped so much? I can understand Americans being reluctant to join the CIA, FBI and NSA. But the US army is still revered by many, and it has many perks.
War on Terror. Military and its benefits wascab easier sell pre 2001. Get money for college, learn a trade, see the world - its peace time, and because of The End of History there's never going beva real war. 9/11 caused a bump in blood and soil reaction requirement, but 20 years of getting shot at inbthe desert for no reason, 20 years of people you know coming back and being disabled or psychologically scarred or commiting suicide, 20 years of the gov not taking care of veterans from your commity that you know. All that eats away at that veneration - whether people express it that way or not.
Not to mention the monumental "Nothing" achieved by the vast majority of the war on terror (besides enriching the MIC, but that doesn't get trumpeted).
Americans across the entire political spectrum understand the War on Terror as an immense criminal act based on lies. Even those that still have an overall positive view of military personnel. It cannot be overstated just how much of a catastrophe that was -- obviously for the innocents -- but also for the military itself.
Most Americans may still be indoctrinated with various forms of shitlibbery but the US military has lost trust for generations. I don't think the US will ever be able to mobilize the meat fodder needed for a great power conflict without a draft and a draft would start a civil war. That's why these ghouls have to rely on vassals and PMCs now.
A draft wouldn't start a civil war, but it would be a speedrun of the public's response to the Vietnam War, including a disintegration of the Army's ability to fight and direct action against recruiting efforts. We'd likely see much more support for that direct action, too.
Unironically a draft would be the best opportunity for American MLs possible, short of federal bombing of American cities
Anecdotally: I've run into a fair amount of veterans from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars who are very vocal in their opinion that nobody should join the military right now. This isn't necessarily because they oppose US imperialism; some veterans do oppose it, but they've often ovecorrected and become extreme pacifists and Leo Tolstoy types. Most of the anti-military veterans I've met are actually rather proud of their "service," but they think the military is corrupt, the wars are unwinnable, and the common enlisted man is treated like shit. A former special forces guy I sort of know peripherally told me once, matter-of-factly, at a gathering we were both at: "in the the military, an attractive woman knows exactly the amount of value she has." Voices like these carry a lot of weight in the small towns and rural areas from which recruits are largely drawn.
What does that mean? Is that an euphemism for rape?
Or prostitution. Or getting positions for sexual favours.
Yep, pretty much. Or prostitution in one form or another, like REEEEvolution said below.
They have extreme enlistment requirements. For example, if you have ADHD, Autism, or depression in any form, even if you have treatment or are completely the same as a nuerotypical person, you are still barred entry.
Same goes for any form of drug use. A whole list of genetic or physical issues, and so on. They’ve limited their pool significantly.
lmao, so basically no usian can make in, psychological problems are sky rocketing because of shit living conditions + fentanyl addicts + people with diseases from low quality food like high blood pressure or diabetes.
speaking serious now, i fucking bet that in case a war breaks out, they will lift these restrictions immediately and send the "undesirables" to die, with the exception of prisoners jails are private and having people release could result in profit loss.
They’ve already done that.
Look up “McNamara’s Morons”. The US lifted those restrictions during the Vietnam war, and those units had a casualty rate of nearly 3 times that of standard units.
Every time i get to know something new about USA, it's yet another marg bar moment.
It just keeps getting better and better doesn’t it?
And I'm still wondering how could there be people who know these things, who know about Tuskegee trials, MOVE bombing, fuckin Bonus Army - and still cheer for USA, or at least "liberal democracy". But nope, somehow in their mind USSR is still worse
didn't knew that, thanks comrade
You're welcome! Happy to help!
Holy shit, I never expected there ti be an actual RL explanation for Forrest Gump and Bubba
Yep, they were part of Project 100,000, if you also notice during those scenes, the other men in their platoon have some physical disabilities, alcoholism, poor eyesight, under/overweight, and other “McNamara” traits.
not if you pay the prisons to recruit prisoners.
someone please take the lathe away from me
selling prisoners would hurt profits in the long run, but that is a problem for tomorrow capitalists, today we profit selling people
these are all issues with how they structure the payment which is very workable
Oh but it's all about that short term gains!
And if they start running out of bodies to fill prison bunks, they just gotta start booking them younger.
no ADHD? how does anything get (half) done in the army?
Well, technically you can have ADHD, you just can't have any stimulants or treatment.
Which is a bit ironic given the fact that almost all modern day soldiers in all armies are issued a massive emergency dose of stimulants as part of their combat gear.
Here’s PBS on it: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-recruiting-and-confidence-in-americas-armed-forces-is-so-low-right-now
Well, good. Here's hoping the numbers keep dropping.