Personally i think this collapse mentality quite dangerous, because it is paralyzing, like lets all relax that capitalism will fall by itself.

One thing that we must acknowledged about capitalism is that it is resilient as fuck, and when in crisis it will turn to fascism, and in the particular case of u.s, the elements of fascism, being chauvinist, reactionary and mass, is already part of it's culture by itself, the american exceptionalism, the ideas of the destiny manifest, the founding fathers and etc.

My take is, turn openly fascist, we are already seeing this on florida with it's bizarre anti-trans laws, squeeze it's "allies" even more, cause conflicts throughout the world to revitalize it weapons based economy.

civil war, i don't think so, perhaps some pockets of armed resistance from the persecuted.

IMO one of the most important characteristics of this century will be the mass-migration of networked labor. For the first time ever, an immigrant worker can be in real-time contact with their friends and family back home. That makes every immigrant an ambassador for labor, a bridge between the unions of two countries. Global warming will force hundreds of millions to migrate by the end of this century.

When their unions become large enough and conscious of their power, they will be able to organize strikes that span continents. Imagine a strike against Tesla that shuts down not just the sales floors in the US, but the factory in Mexico, the lithium mine in Bolivia, and anybody else who makes any parts Tesla needs. The capitalists won't know what hit them.

As an outsider I think civil war would be unlikely just because the broader USA society already has a tendency of allowing fascists to do whatever they want because "it's the law" anyway. I think they're more likely to just go into full "how many deaths is it economically viable" again like they did with the Covid 1 Million while the media industry just goes

Its just my opinion, but it's a hard no from me. Even if the US declines nominally on certain fronts, it is not necessarily declining relative to its peers. So it's it's influence is not really declining noticeably enough to signal qualitative change.

Yes there are plenty of things to be optimistic about, such as dedollarization and seeming to fail in Ukraine, but this will not be a fast enough process to blindside it. The US has time to adapt and disrupt the coalitions that are necessary to push forward and there is still time for mistakes on the part of coalition builders, or antagonistic contradictions developing among them.

Basically, even as the US becomes more and more vulnerable, everyone else is still vulnerable as well.

Also, the US has other weapons such as it's propaganda machine and imo it's never been more dangerous than it is right now. It doesn't need to be persuasive either, only disruptive.

Most importantly, very few people in the US seem to actually want it to fall. This important because even if the US seriously stumbles, it is more likley that Americans generally will seek to recover it's footing instead delivering the killing blow and moving forward in a decolonial and anti-imperialist direction.

At the same time, however, I feel like most of the security the US enjoys is something that could collapes relatively quickly. I just think I would be too optimistic to believe this must happen anytime soon instead of under other circumstances such as a highly developed alternative international coalition and an organized front at home. The BRICS still have work to do imo, but indeed the ball is rolling, just gotta pick up the pace.

Slow collapse is the most likely scenario and I'd say we're probably in the middle of it right now.

The thing I wonder about is what that would look like. Who would take control of the 4000ish nuclear weapons and the 800+ bases around the globe? It wouldn't really be good for anyone if the US military was decapitated, and split into various factions or whatever else might happen from that point on.

I really don't know how that can work in anyone's favor without a nuke or two being used somewhere.

For both the Syrian and Ukrainian wars you have to remember what each of the challengers to state power wanted to do, destroy anti-Imperialist forces. So I think the only way the US has another civil war is in reaction to a serious disturbance of Capitalism where a progressive force challenges the the sovereignty of the state/property order (like the German Revolution). The US police/militia forces would do what the French police threatened to do a month ago, break from the authority of the state to "restore order". I don't think this is a civil war as much as it is the property order recovering from a crisis. A civil war will only come from revolution.

I think we have to be prepared as a movement for serious disturbances to society from the environment. I don't think people realize how badly the Gulf of Mexico states collapsed during and after Katrina. Millions of people left the region, white supremacist gangs were lynching Black people. Only the military had the capability of entering the New Orleans. There are many disasters like this brewing in the US (fires and earthquakes in the west, Colorado River crisis, aquifers depletion in the prairies, tornadoes in the mid-west, hurricanes in the south and east). We need to prepare our communities for these crises, which Capitalism will actively attempt to prevent us from doing, this is where we can prove that Capitalism is holding us back.

Civil war? Idk

Collapse? God I hope so.