I think it will be in the Sahel region, if the AES alliance (lol) keep being successful the people from the plethora of small and poor neighboring countries will inevitably demand their governments for improvement and we might see something.
this post was submitted on 13 Dec 2024
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If this causes an anti-imperialist coup in a country with a coast, it would probably be a game changer.
I like Mexico's general trajectory, though it would be tough with Great Satan as their neighbor.
I mean, Cuba managed it.
It also almost lead to WW3.
Definitely Burkina Faso and Niger, maybe Mali too
Hoping western leftists break off a chunk of America and make it a AES actually. Won't happen because they are always eyeing our countries in the global south for breaking apart. Not directed at you OP.
Yeah, I'd love to see that happen, but I really don't think it's gonna happen any time soon — at least not on a scale larger than one neighborhood for a period of longer than one month. Maybe we'll be proven wrong, though! God willing!
Sent from Mdewakanton Dakota lands / Sept. 29 1837
Treaty with the Sioux of September 29th, 1837
"We Will Talk of Nothing Else": Dakota Interpretations of the Treaty of 1837
I think state identity must be taken advantage of and use it to bolster independence movements
Would you like to expand on that thought?
Sent from Mdewakanton Dakota lands / Sept. 29 1837
Treaty with the Sioux of September 29th, 1837
"We Will Talk of Nothing Else": Dakota Interpretations of the Treaty of 1837
Like make sure people will start identifying with their own state identity more to the point that they don't care that much about the national American identity and even think that the American identity undermines their state identity. When that happens, more people will want to secede
Yep. Exactly what America does to everyone else. I think they maintain a database of up to date tensions, contradictions, and conflicts that are ethnic, religious, and otherwise.
I doubt this would be effective, given that state identities and US national identity are both settler constructs. These identities were constructed alongside each other to work with each other to further colonization, so I frankly strongly doubt you could "reform" state identities in a productive or progressive direction, except maybe Alaska and Hawaii.
Sent from Mdewakanton Dakota lands / Sept. 29 1837
Treaty with the Sioux of September 29th, 1837
"We Will Talk of Nothing Else": Dakota Interpretations of the Treaty of 1837
I always keep hoping for an independent socialist Alaska or Hawaii, or even better socialist Texas
With the recent reforms, Nicaragua will join the AES list soon.
what kind of reforms are going on over there?
Here is a post about it -> https://lemmygrad.ml/post/6363963
TLDR It is the dissolution of the bourgeois state and the introduction of the exercise of popular power through direct democracy(similar to China). It is so good that even the USA reacted to this -> https://ni.usembassy.gov/press-release-on-the-continuation-of-the-national-emergency-with-respect-to-the-situation-in-nicaragua/
“National emergency” lmao
Probably Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras or Nicaragua
Somewhat agree with you on Honduras. There’s some real class consciousness going on there but they’re also reactionary as hell so it can go either way.
The US fucked so much with Honduras recently, and all because the Zelayas (who were pretty much neoliberals and very rich people) became socdems and were making deals with Venezuela, after the 2009 military coup they developed their own Democratic Socialism ideology but they are still socially conservative on some stuff.
The Northern Triangle has always been very socially conservative. Castro herself isn’t as much but moreso than I think you would find in Costa Rica or even Mexico.
Idk about exact country, but i feel like itll be somewhere in latin america or the middle east.
Sahel or somewhere in latin america. i also think this is where we'll start seeing new practical applications of modern socialism from that will be a departure from the early 20th.
not wildly so but enough to be a new "era"
Algeria, Key ECOWAS countries, Tanzania.
I mean we keep steadily growing in Belgium so I won't count us out in Europe. Though it would be a massively hard thing to achieve and we'd probably face violent resistance at some point.
In my future fiction project I think it might've actually been Ryukyu: when war broke out in Korea and Taiwan, the massive expansion of the American military presence in the Ryukyu Islands created intense conflict between locals and the government, and this conflict only worsened as opposition was suppressed. This led to a revitalization of the Ryukyu independence movement and a widespread embrace of revolutionary socialism among locals.
This is certainly not the most "realistic" prediction — the more obvious predictions would be "somewhere in Latin America or the Middle East" as the other commenter said — but the thing about predictions is that so much can change unpredictably in a short time-span, things can butterfly, so it is difficult to say anything with any amount of certainty.
Sent from Mdewakanton Dakota lands / Sept. 29 1837
Treaty with the Sioux of September 29th, 1837
"We Will Talk of Nothing Else": Dakota Interpretations of the Treaty of 1837
Probably some North African country
Edit: if I think harder about it, Paraguay
What makes you say that?
Honestly, a wild guess but I edited my comment with a more thoughtful answer
Would be great to see another piece of the puzzle put on the jigsaw in that part of the world. I'm hoping that when it happens, a few states participate so they can protect each other against the US.
india (with fascist possibility as well).
While I agree with the sentiments about Northern Africa and the Sahel countries as most likely, India is my “dark horse” choice. Yes, BJP and fascism is a big problem. But I think along other metrics, it appears that the conditions seem to be matching up. Recently there were those farmer protests that seemed to have a heavy communist influence that were like the largest protests in human history (I recall something like 200 million people participated in the protest). There’s quite a ways to go but I would not be surprised to see India go communist in this century.
Most likely not my own.