this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2025
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Image is of Elon Musk giving the Nazi salute a week or so ago.


I didn't really want to keep spotlighting American domestic events as I had assumed that shit would calm down pretty quickly, but it appears that the Trump administration, including Musk, are determined to bring down the empire from the inside.

One of the most important lessons of ruling a country - and especially an empire - is to never, ever believe your own propaganda; and yet now we have neo-Nazi failsons disrupting parts of the imperial apparatus and causing general government mayhem because they actually seem to believe in libertarianism; that the state and the capitalists are somehow in opposition, rather than working in lockstep to maximise profit and boost American hegemony around the world.

I'm not so optimistic as to believe that a national collapse is FOUR DAYS AWAY, like those weird anti-China cranks often speculate - the US has at least a decade or two left even under these conditions. But consider the damage being inflicted in these past couple weeks, and extrapolate that over the next four years. Does any living American political figure possess the competency to halt - or even meaningfully slow - the already ongoing decline? And could they achieve power (or even be allowed to do so) after Trump's term is done?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] makotech222@hexbear.net 54 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (3 children)

Tariff on Mexico has been suspended for one month, after meeting with Sheinbaum lmao

https://bsky.app/profile/moreperfectunion.bsky.social/post/3lhbuwdiujc2h

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 41 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

https://www.woodtv.com/business/ap-business/ap-trump-and-trudeau-speak-and-plan-to-do-so-again-before-tariffs-start-on-tuesday/

Mexico will reinforce the northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard immediately, to stop drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, in particular fentanyl,” Sheinbaum posted on X. “The United States commits to work to stop the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.” who-did-this

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 34 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

“The United States commits to work to stop the trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.”

The only way this is happening is if there is a serious crackdown on stuff like the gun show loopholes, significant new enforcement on straw purchases and punishment for dealers turning a blind eye or actively participating, and some level of forced registration to punish people for not properly securing their guns (significant portion of illegal firearms are stolen from dickheads who leave their "car gun" unlocked in their car). Plus, you know, the US government would have to also stop giving the cartels weapons lol.

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 26 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (1 children)

I think it's a cop out than something pre-planned.

[–] Fishroot@hexbear.net 28 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

it is a non issue since Mexico is already doing border reinforcement for the US. It is also a non issue since the number of the migrant is already decreasing since 2024.

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[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 40 points 5 hours ago (6 children)

Apparently Mexico rushing 10000 troops to the border to stop drug flow and the white house may delay the tariffs until march as a result

[–] SamotsvetyVIA@hexbear.net 53 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

i have it on good intelligence that mexico is building troops on the border to invade the nazi "united states" regime in a 3-day special military operation

[–] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 21 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Minnesota Peoples Republic when?

[–] 9to5@hexbear.net 19 points 4 hours ago

Dont do that. Dont give me hope sadness

[–] Fishroot@hexbear.net 35 points 5 hours ago (2 children)
[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 21 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

It's the same deal that Trump pulled in 2019 with Mexico. I think Biden also agreed to something similar in 2021.

[–] Fishroot@hexbear.net 19 points 5 hours ago

According to the Pew research, the border reinforcement is mostly done during Biden's term.

I don't think we should be surprised that Mexico folds under pressure due to its precarious position

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 16 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Yeah thats what I figured. Will be seen as a "win" for his base

[–] Fishroot@hexbear.net 26 points 5 hours ago (2 children)

There is a certain tragedy that Mexico and Canada are already annexed as both countries' economical, political and cultural are all pegged to the machination of the united states. You can see clearly that it is mostly rhetoric and all parties gets a win.

Mexico can do a symbolic deployment of troops so that Trump can score a win and Sheinbam can avert a economic downfall.

As for Canada, the Liberal Party is exploiting the Tariffs as a way to increase their popularity versus the Conservative Party.

Ultimately, the most important question is: What is Trump try to accomplish with the Tariff in the long term. We know that in the short term is to whip US' partners into compliance.

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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 24 points 5 hours ago

i would also rush some division to the border ,if i where mexico "to keep it safe" from (the biggest) Drug Trafficer

[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 19 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

I would too, what do you think those American troops will be doing on the border, not smuggling drugs???

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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 65 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (4 children)

And Suddenly , there is silence.

  • no Pictures of Protestors in Russias Periphery kissing in front of the Police .

  • no Nafo Trolls

  • No concerned Tik Tokers "we need to talk about X Country, okay: so the Leader is like super corrupt and payed by russia , and people! are! sick! of! it!.. "

  • No Argument on Hexbear if the Protest in Slowanigorgiazyprus that they heard about from Reddit , might be legit or not..( No ,we didnt learn , dont you worry , Slowanigorgiazyprus - protest is just not on reddit anymore)

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 35 points 5 hours ago (2 children)

Occam’s Razor says that 川建国 is a CPC agent and a deep anti-imperialist undercover.

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 23 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (1 children)

second-plane Sir, a second Guaido has hit the news mega.

[–] Babs@hexbear.net 22 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

建国 means "nation-builder", because Trump is helping build the nation.

Not America though. He builds up China.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 15 points 4 hours ago

Yes it’s one of many Trump’s nicknames in China.

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[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 26 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago) (2 children)

Except for @randomname@scribe.disroot.org who's account was created just a few days ago and seems to be only posting "cHinA bAD" articles. fedposting

[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 24 points 6 hours ago

Lmao I was just calling them out on a "Uighurs are slaves picking cotton" post by a US NGO with no evidence. Unfortunately for that cracker, this is one market China won't be taking over from the US, who still uses actual slave labor for farming and manufacturing in their prisons

[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 23 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago) (1 children)
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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 29 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (2 children)

An update from México's president Claudia Sheinbaum: The tarrifs on México have been delayed by one month to March 1-4 2025, in exchange México will deploy 10 000 National Guard troops to the México - US border to combat drug trafficking, in particular fentanyl. The United States committed to working on preventing the trafficking of high powered weapons to México.

Statement in SpanishSostuvimos una buena conversación con el presidente Trump con mucho respeto a nuestra relación y la soberanía; llegamos a una serie de acuerdos:

    1. México reforzará la frontera norte con 10 mil elementos de la Guardia Nacional de forma inmediata, para evitar el tráfico de drogas de México a Estados Unidos, en particular fentanilo.
    1. Estados Unidos se compromete a trabajar para evitar el tráfico de armas de alto poder a México.
    1. Nuestros equipos empezarán a trabajar hoy mismo en dos vertientes: seguridad y comercio.
    1. Se ponen en pausa los aranceles por un mes a partir de ahora.

English translationWe had a good conversation with President Trump with great respect for our relationship and sovereignty; we reached a series of agreements:

    1. Mexico will reinforce the northern border with 10,000 National Guard troops immediately, to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, particularly fentanyl.
    1. The United States is committed to working to prevent the trafficking of high-powered weapons into Mexico.
    1. Our teams will begin work today on two tracks: security and trade.
    1. Tariffs are put on hold for one month from now.

Twitter source

Xcancel mirror

It looks like the threat of tarrifs, and potential military action, with the recent US Navy combat air patrols on the border, have extracted the first serious concessions from México. (unless you count the use of Mexican airspace for civilian aircraft deportation flights as the first). 10 000 Mexican National Guard troops being immediately deployed to the border is a more significant action than the US "committing to prevent weapons trafficking", which is just some nice words at the moment, no specifics or details are mentioned at this point. I wonder how long before we hear about concessions from Canada, I can't imagine them fighting this on their own. I think only China will hold out for long to be honest.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 22 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (1 children)

I don’t think the actual terms of the negotiations will be made public. The standard MO is “both sides negotiated and walked away satisfied with some compromises” and both get to claim their PR victories.

This is the carrot to the stick of lose-lose scenario that damages both sides and see whose economy can last longer. We’ll see more of similar stories in the future. And you’ll have to look carefully at what Mexico is doing over the next few months to tease out what was being compromised there.

We only see Khrushchev withdrawing the IRBMs from Cuba, but by the time the US removed the Jupiter missiles from Turkey months later, the public has probably forgotten about the incident already.

I also don’t think Trump was the one negotiating, at least not the person who set the actual terms.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 17 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

The terms will never be made public, but the little we do get, even from the Mexican president herself who will try paint México in the best of light, seems one sided. México makes a concrete commitment to deploy a military controlled force to the border, the USA makes a promise on gun control towards México with no concrete commitment. The US president effectively ordering around Mexican military controlled forces is not a great place to be in terms of sovereignty. At least México is still holding out on their airspace not being used by the US military on the sovereignty front. We have to look to the future developments for the full picture, you're correct.

The migrants are the biggest losers by far here, now they have to deal with an increased military presence on their journey. The last time Trump did a similar deal in 2019, this photograph of the Mexican National Guard stopping a woman and her child went viral.

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 23 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Finally get to test my hypothesis that the fent is coming from inside the house.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 18 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (1 children)

I think a lot manufacturing of the final fentanyl product is done inside the USA, but the precursors are imported and made outside of the USA. At least that was my understanding.

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[–] Sulv@hexbear.net 55 points 6 hours ago
[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 30 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

Update on the US - México border: The United States Navy has started flying Combat Air Patrols (CAPs) along the border. The P-8A Poseidon aircraft was spotted on ADSB exchange and at local airbases, along with a refueling KC-46 aircraft. The P-8A is primarily used in anti submarine and anti ship warfare, along with being used for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), basically spying. It's armed with cruise missiles and torpedoes.

Why would this aircraft be used? I don't think that the United States is going to fire cruise missiles and torpedoes at the cartel yet. I think it's mainly for intelligence gathering purposes.

The P-8A has a hydrocarbon sensor designed to detect the diesel/petrol fuel emissions from submarines and ships. This could, in theory, be used to detect motor vehicle activity in México. The AN/APY-10 mechanically scanned radar is capable of using both synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and inverse synthetic aperture radar modes (ISAR), to provide high resolution two dimensional imagery, and/or three dimensional reconstructions of target areas on land. This could be used to detect changes in the landscape, such as tunnel construction, or to monitor movement with ISAR. The aircraft can also be equipped with the AN/APS-154 AAS AESA radar, which provides 360° coverage, and it's targeting capability is said to be sensitive enough to track a group of people crossing over open land. The AN/APS-154 AAS is also said to be able to track submarines while underwater through the slight disturbance of the water's surface, such a capability could be used to detect tunnel construction underground via surface disturbance maybe?

In any case, the US Navy conducting CAPs and ISR missions over the US - México border is an escalation. At the current rate of escalation, how long will it be before some US military personnel cross over the border to "raid the cartels"? This is a possibility that cannot be ruled out.

[–] Seasonal_Peace@hexbear.net 47 points 7 hours ago (1 children)
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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 28 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago) (7 children)

A trade war of EPIC proportions has officially kicked off, folks.

Get ready and brace for impact, because life is going to get so much harder for the next few years.

[–] SamotsvetyVIA@hexbear.net 29 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

This year will be harder than last year. However, it will be easier than next year

[–] Cimbazarov@hexbear.net 15 points 5 hours ago
[–] Fishroot@hexbear.net 8 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Mexico has ''folded'' already.

I would guess we are going to hear about Canada's response in 2-3 weeks when Trump will kick the tariff can farther down the road.

ofc the real victims are going to be migrants and the average consumers affected by border policies and tariffs.

[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 8 points 4 hours ago

so how will it work with Music ? will only 25% of the Song play or will Instruments be missing ?

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[–] Sulv@hexbear.net 45 points 7 hours ago (2 children)
[–] niph@hexbear.net 6 points 3 hours ago

Probably the only viable move for the EU is to make this oblique threat that they’ll pivot to China instead

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[–] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 40 points 6 hours ago (1 children)
[–] egg1918@hexbear.net 39 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

James Wilton, from Huddersfield, in West Yorkshire, was 17 when he left the UK to fight against Russia, flying from Manchester to Poland before crossing the border into Ukraine.

Utterly shameful they let a child run off and die for Nazis

[–] RaisedFistJoker@hexbear.net 36 points 5 hours ago

“I’ll never get over this. I didn’t want him to go but his heart was set on it. He wanted to help Ukraine,” his father, Graham,

Before boarding the plane, Graham told the newspaper Wilton had spent an hour saying goodbye to his mother, Kerrie-Anne, 44, who had also tried to dissuade their son from going to Ukraine.

He was a literal minor and neither parent wanted him to go. WHY DID YOU LET YOUR CHILD, WHO WAS A MINOR, BOARD A FLIGHT TO GO AND FIGHT IN A WAR. Actual criminal neglect

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