an ex-crypto-and-nft-promoter, now confabulation machine promoter feels that the confabulation machine hate reached unreasonable levels. thread of replies is full of persecuted confabulation machine ~~promoters~~ realists.
this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2025
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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Today in autosneering:
KEVIN: Well, I'm glad. We didn't intend it to be an AI focused podcast. When we started it, we actually thought it was going to be a crypto related podcast and that's why we picked the name, Hard Fork, which is sort of an obscure crypto programming term. But things change and all of a sudden we find ourselves in the ChatGPT world talking about AI every week.
https://bsky.app/profile/nathanielcgreen.bsky.social/post/3mahkarjj3s2o
Obscure crypto programming term. Sure
Follow the hype, Kevin, follow the hype.
I hate-listen to his podcast. There's not a single week where he fails to give a thorough tongue-bath to some AI hypester. Just a few weeks ago when Google released Gemini 3, they had a special episode just to announce it. It was a defacto press release, put out by Kevin and Casey.
Sunday afternoon slack period entertainment: image generation prompt “engineers” getting all wound up about people stealing their prompts and styles and passing off hard work as their own. Who would do such a thing?
https://bsky.app/profile/arif.bsky.social/post/3mahhivnmnk23
@Artedeingenio
Never do this: Passing off someone else's work as your own.
This Grok Imagine effect with the day-to-night transition was created by me — and I'm pretty sure that person knows it. To make things worse, their copy has more impressions than my original post.
Not cool 👎
Ahh, sweet schadenfreude.
I wonder if they’ve considered that it might actually be possible to get a reasonable imitation of their original prompt by using an llm to describe the generated image, and just tack on “more photorealistic, bigger boobies” to win at imagine generation.
Eliezer is mad OpenPhil (EA organization, now called Coefficient Giving)... advocated for longer AI timelines? And apparently he thinks they were unfair to MIRI, or didn't weight MIRI's views highly enough? And doing so for epistemically invalid reasons? IDK, this post is a bit more of a rant and less clear than classic sequence content (but is par for the course for the last 5 years of Eliezer's content). For us sane people, AGI by 2050 is still a pretty radical timeline, it just disagrees with Eliezer's imminent belief in doom. Also, it is notable Eliezer has actually avoided publicly committing to consistent timelines (he actually disagrees with efforts like AI2027) other than a vague certainty we are near doom.
Some choice comments
I recall being at a private talk hosted by ~2 people that OpenPhil worked closely with and/or thought of as senior advisors, on AI. It was a confidential event so I can't say who or any specifics, but they were saying that they wanted to take seriously short AI timelines
Ah yes, they were totally secretly agreeing with your short timelines but couldn't say so publicly.
Open Phil decisions were strongly affected by whether they were good according to worldviews where "utter AI ruin" is >10% or timelines are <30 years.
OpenPhil actually did have a belief in a pretty large possibility of near term AGI doom, it just wasn't high enough or acted on strongly enough for Eliezer!
At a meta level, "publishing, in 2025, a public complaint about OpenPhil's publicly promoted timelines and how those may have influenced their funding choices" does not seem like it serves any defensible goal.
Lol, someone noting Eliezer's call out post isn't actually doing anything useful towards Eliezer's goals.
It's not obvious to me that Ajeya's timelines aged worse than Eliezer's. In 2020, Ajeya's median estimate for transformative AI was 2050. [...] As far as I know, Eliezer never made official timeline predictions
Someone actually noting AGI hasn't happened yet and so you can't say a 2050 estimate is wrong! And they also correctly note that Eliezer has been vague on timelines (rationalists are theoretically supposed to be preregistering their predictions in formal statistical language so that they can get better at predicting and people can calculate their accuracy... but we've all seen how that went with AI 2027. My guess is that at least on a subconscious level Eliezer knows harder near term predictions would ruin the grift eventually.)
Yud:
I have already asked the shoggoths to search for me, and it would probably represent a duplication of effort on your part if you all went off and asked LLMs to search for you independently.
The locker beckons
The fixation on their own in-group terms is so cringe. Also I think shoggoth is kind of a dumb term for lLMs. Even accepting the premise that LLMs are some deeply alien process (and not a very wide but shallow pool of different learned heuristics), shoggoths weren't really that bizarre alien, they broke free of their original creators programming and didn't want to be controlled again.
I'm a nerd and even I want to shove this guy in a locker.
There is a Yud quote about closet goblins in More Everything Forever p. 143 where he thinks that the future-Singularity is an empirical fact that you can go and look for so its irrelevant to talk about the psychological needs it fills. Becker also points out that "how many people will there be in 2100?" is not the same sort of question as "how many people are registered residents of Kyoto?" because you can't observe the future.
Yeah, I think this is an extreme example of a broader rationalist trend of taking their weird in-group beliefs as givens and missing how many people disagree. Like most AI researchers do not believe in the short timelines they do, the median (including their in-group and people that have bought the booster's hype) guess among AI researchers for AGI is 2050. Eliezer apparently assumes short timelines are self evident from ChatGPT (but hasn't actually committed to one or a hard date publicly).
Popular RPG Expedition 33 got disqualified from the Indie Game Awards due to using Generative AI in development.
Statement on the second tab here: https://www.indiegameawards.gg/faq
When it was submitted for consideration, representatives of Sandfall Interactive agreed that no gen AI was used in the development of Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. In light of Sandfall Interactive confirming the use of gen AI art in production on the day of the Indie Game Awards 2025 premiere, this does disqualify Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 from its nomination.
The latest poster who is pretty sure that Hacker News posts critical of YCombinator and their friends get muted like on big corporate sites (HN is open that they do a lot of moderation, but some is more public than others; this guy is not a fan of Omarchy Linux) https://xn--gckvb8fzb.com/the-mysterious-forces-steering-views-on-hacker-news/
@CinnasVerses it's almost as if the people running ycombinator had some sort of vested interest in a particular framing of tech stories
People on Hacker News have been posting for years about how positive stories about YC companies will have (YC xxxx) next to their name, but never the negative ones
Maciej Ceglowski said that one reason he gave up on organizing SoCal tech workers was that they kept scheduling events in a Google meeting room using their Google calendar with "Re: Union organizing?" as the subject of the meeting.
It's a power play. Engineers know that they're valuable enough that they can organize openly; also, as in the case of Alphabet Workers Union, engineers can act in solidarity with contractors, temps, and interns. I've personally done things like directly emailing CEOs with reply-all, interrupting all-hands to correct upper management on the law, and other fun stuff. One does have to be sufficiently skilled and competent to invoke the Steve Martin principle: "be so good that they can't ignore you."
I wonder what would have happened if Ceglowski had kept focused on talks and on working with the few Bay Area tech workers who were serious about unionizing, regulation, and anti-capitalism. It seemed like after the response to his union drive was smaller and less enthusiastic than he had hoped, he pivoted to cybersecurity education and campaign fundraising.
One of his warnings was that the megacorps are building systems so a few opinionated tech workers can't block things. Assuming that a few big names will always be able to hold back a multibilliondollar company through individual action so they don't need all that frustrating organizing seems unwise (as we are seeing in the state of the market for computer touchers in the USA).
@CinnasVerses the valley is rife with these "wisdom is your dump stat" folks. can invert a binary tree on a whiteboard but might accidentally drown themselves in a rain puddle
(Detaches whiteboard from wall, turns whiteboard upside-down)
Inverted, motherfuckers
famous last words, "we are currently clean on opsec"
maciej cegłowski is also a self-serving arse, so i'd take anything he says with a large grain of salt.
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@CinnasVerses @cap_ybarra 10x developers, ladies, gentlemen, and enbies. The best and brightest.
10x developers, 0.1x proletariat.
The stakhanov we have at home
This had slipped under the radar for me
https://www.reddit.com/r/backgammon/comments/1k8nlay/new_chapter_for_extreme_gammon/
After 25 years, it is time for us to pass the torch to someone else. Travis Kalanick, yes the Uber founder, has purchased Gammonsite and eXtreme Gammon and will take over our backgammon products (he has a message to the community below)
:(
Took me a second to realize you were actually talking about backgammon, and not using gammon (as in the british angry ham) as a word replacement.
This makes me wonder, how hard is backgammon? As in computability wise, on the level of chess? Go? Or somewhere else?
Backgammon is "easier" than chess or go, but it has dice, so it not (yet) been completely solved like checkers. I think only the endgame ("bearing off") has been solved. The SOTA backgammon AI using NNs is better than expert humans but you can still beat it if you get lucky. XG is notable because if you ever watch high stakes backgammon on youtube, they will run XG side by side to show when human players make blunders. That's how I learned about it anyway.
Thanks! Had not really thought about how dice would mess with the complexity of things tbh.
A story of no real substance. Pharmaicy, a Swedish company, has reportedly started a new grift where you can give your chatbot virtual, "code-based drugs", ranging from 300,000 kr, for weed code, to 700,000 kr, cocaine.
editor's note: 300000 swedish krona is approximately 328,335.60 norwegian krone. 700000 SEK is about 766116.40.
To be more clear:
300000 swedish krona = ~672 690 czech koruna
700000 swedish krona = ~1 569 611 czech koruna
to be even clearer:
300k swedish krona = ~54k bulgarian lev = ~119k uae dirham
700k swedish krona = ~126k bulgarian lev = ~277k uae dirham
Thanks for the conversion. Real scanlation enjoyers will understand.
nor… norway!!!
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