In an op-ed posted on The Daily Reckoning on Tuesday, former CIA and Department of Defense advisor and investment banker James Rickards predicted that August 22 will be the day the U.S. dollar’s status, as the world reserve currency and medium for exchange will formally collapse.
I would love for this to be true, but I would be very surprised if it collapsed that quickly
haha we can only hope
“The key is to create a BRICS+ currency bond market in 20 or more countries at once, relying on retail investors in each country to buy the bonds. The BRICS+ bonds would be offered through banks and postal offices and other retail outlets. They would be denominated in BRICS+ currency, but investors could purchase them in local currency at market-based exchange rates. Since the currency is gold-backed it would offer an attractive store of value compared with inflation,” Rickards writes.
He added that “if the BRICS+ use a kind of Liberty Bond patriotic model, they may well be able to create international reserve assets denominated in the BRICS+ currency even in the absence of developed market support. This entire turn of events—introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency, and gradual use as a reserve asset currency—will begin on August 22, 2023, after years of development.”
This part is better at explaining what he really meant, bolds are mine. So on that date the BRICS will commence this series of steps, which will be the beginning of the end.
Yeah, "collapse" was probably just used to draw attention. I can only hope that the USD declines as quickly as possible after that
It's a teaser for the fans.
hopefully reality lives up to the trailer
To me, this reads like a CIA guy selling people on the idea that a modest step away from the dollar as reserve currency is the end of the world. This is "if you give people healthcare we'll be commies tomorrow." Look at how this is couched:
if the BRICS+ use a kind of Liberty Bond patriotic model, they may well be able to create international reserve assets denominated in the BRICS+ currency even in the absence of developed market support. This entire turn of events—introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency, and gradual use as a reserve asset currency—will begin on August 22
If this, maybe that, a mention of the developed world as if they'll peacefully let the market decide and not violently react. This is drumming up fear, not a sober prediction.
I don't see why both can be true, he says in the note he's been letting the intelligence agencies for years this would happen if they over used the dollar as an economical tool, said and done, it's happening. I don't think he wants for the BRICS to dominate the political sphere, he obviously wants the Usonian empire to persist, but nevertheless his analysis is valid.
I agree there's some truth to what he says; he's just overselling it, especially how imminent it is.
One way they could pay to prop up the dollar for a little longer is selling tickets to be in the room when the US realises its days are numbered.
The truly amazing thing to me is all the liberals who still think the politics of Obama or Biden, etc. will somehow help anything or save anyone. Even from a selfish American standpoint, their only standpoint of course, what the fuck do they think Obama did for them? I mean goddamn Biden is the first president in decades it feels like to do ANYTHING positive (pulling out of Afghanistan finally but of course that was no good he had to plunge immediately into Ukraine/Russia bullshit 🤦♂️). A bar so low you’d pass it purely by accident.
“We” are so fucked. The dollar stuff ultimately is kinda meh but it’s another stone in a bucket labeled “US collapse.” It’s really really fucking sad but at this point I think the best short term outcome, ie the next president, is someone who DOES openly acknowledge “it’s over. Let’s negotiate a dignified step down.” Biden has shown that won’t be him. Trump is probably too nationalistic and the hogs in his cabinet would absolutely never allow it (imagine “genocide is fun” John Bolton ever engaging in good faith with China or some collective of African nations. He’d be smashing the invade button the whole time). So, I dunno, at the risk of realistic doomerism… we’re fucked. There will be no nice dignified stepping aside or sharing power. It’s all gonna get ridden full blast into the ground and we’ll probably all die along the way. Hopefully the whales or squid that take over the world some day do better.
I live in hope that the US loses its power base before it can cause too much damage. At risk of mixing metaphors, unless the US ruling class is a lot brighter than I give them credit for, they'll either shoot too early or miss the boat.
If they shoot too early, they'll rile up the very people they want to keep on side and push them towards BRICS+. If they wait too long, it will be too late so stop.
Either way, they lose access to the labour pool and resources required to maintain the empire. And the military is currently funded by the countries who will jump ship. Ordinary USians can't afford the bill. If BRICS+ times things right, the US will be powerless to stop it. Still powerful, but not powerful enough. At that point, it behoves whomever cometh next to manage the decline and the people will be begging for it. The same scene will play out across the west.
There is a risk of fascism, yes, but it's lesser than it was in the run up to WWII. It doesn't work unless there's an out-group to hyper exploit and infrastructure to do so. The US and rest of the west still has access to that. For now. But much of it is in the ex-colonies or in BRICS+ member states. As soon as the world pivots just so, the whole thing will tip. The west will lose access to it's oppressed subjects and resources either because they're already in BRICS, the +, or are in places where the people are just waiting for the US to let down it's guard.
We're on the verge of a qualitative leap even if August 22 is a little (too) hopeful. It's taken a century of Marxist struggle and the path forward is lined with nettles and brambles but we're on the cusp of a socialist future. Trust that the working class never sleeps for long.
I think it'll be a net new thing. The US military will fight skirmishes against a dozen different militaries in multiple oceans, and at some point will end up fighting itself as well.
Domestically Americans will be dealing with paramilitaries running wild with attempts to purge the unpatriotic and counter paramilitaries trying to stop them. The military/NatGuard will end up deployed domestically but won't have total spatial control so a lot of surveillance and recon will be done by local police.
All the domestic forces will break rank piecemeal across time and join with the paramilitary groups that first meet their ideological needs and then eventually their material needs. This will continue until something decisive happens in the oceans. Either the US military breaks at which point the mainland will see a hard push for a new central power structure to run a guerilla war against the inevitable invasion of the mainland by a coalition of the anti-imperialist, or the US military purges their splitters and wins decisive victories (even if it uses nukes) and then a battle between domestic fascists and domestic communists will emerge.
The worst case scenario is the US decisively winning against the world with WMDs, because that will almost certainly suppress the domestic communist movement for another 2 generations, which prevents an anti-imperialist consensus from moving forward along any pathway.
The best case scenario is a decades long world war where the North Atlantic becomes encircles by an anti-imperialist consensus and then Europe eventually flips and the final project becomes dismantling the USA over a period of years while all the citizens fight amongst themselves.
As much as I love fanfic and stuff, I gotta say, without sitting here and digging too deep…
What domestic communists? In the US right now the number of actual leftists* is so fucking tiny. Educated or at least willing to listen to those who are? I’d be generous to say it’s even 1% of the population. Things can change, sure, but they barely changed in the last 2-3 decades where material conditions have rapidly fallen for the average US citizen. In 1960 I get why it would be difficult to convert the average white dude. In 2023 they should already be in the streets doing insert FBI would love me to say stuff here things. But the reality is… they just aren’t. There’s reasons for it, it’s on purpose obviously, but it’s still happening. Whatever actual left movement could exist simply does not at this point.
And just a small thing. Unless you’re talking 200 years from now in a totally different world, there will NEVER be some anti imperialist land invasion of the US. If even seriously considered by nations powerful enough (China basically right now but a coalition could form within Africa or whatever) it would end pretty quickly in nuclear exchange and ending of the world effectively for humans. The most likely thing is the world trying to ignore the US and let it just collapse on itself and never bother with some risky and impossible liberation of NA mission.
*my simple definition is anti-capitalist, anti-imperialist (which as an American basically means anti-US military. Weirdly hard hurdle for many!), anti-NATO, anti-colonialism in all forms. Probably some other stuff too but that’s like the low bar and it can’t be just statements but rather principled takes which can be articulated to some degree. Claiming to support Palestine then also saying Israel has a right to exist, for example, is not acceptable to me. I’ll accept blind “USA BAD!” As a fill-in.)
I can totally understand your pessimism and skepticism, but I must caution to not lose yourself in it. Things will definitely get worse before they get better, and shit is going to go down. But I believe there is a silver lining to darkness and suffering, in that it will allow us new opportunities to organize, resist and become who we truly are on the inside. Obviously it won't be sunshine and roses, but we communists have faced worse odds before and won.
Yeah I agree that there is pretty much no real tangible presence of communists in the US or any of the western countries. However, there is a multi-national working class that will stumble and meander between socialist ideas and fascist ones, and will pretty much still fight its ruling class. There will be a breakdown of the country along racial and class lines, and in this sharp class war, there will be an explosion of class consciousness and a socialist renaissance. Will it be enough to fight the fascists? Probably not. The most likely outcome is the balkanization of the US and the end of the US federal government as we know it. The biggest historical development towards building of socialism.
What domestic communists? In the US right now the number of actual leftists* is so fucking tiny
I'm talking about war over a decade or more. The domestic communists will be partly USian but also come from outside the US. The borders don't really matter when it comes to this. Also, USian communists will grow in numbers if there is a war.
Educated or at least willing to listen to those who are? I’d be generous to say it’s even 1% of the population.
Labor unions are an obvious place to increase numbers without needing to increase education.
but they barely changed in the last 2-3 decades where material conditions have rapidly fallen for the average US citizen
Nowhere near how bad it's about the get.
there will NEVER be some anti imperialist land invasion of the US
This is assuming the US loses it's Navy. Let's imagine a BRICS alliance that counters NATO. If BRICS breaks the US Navy, then I guarantee there would eventually be a land invasion of the US specifically to create a firewall for protecting indigenous and black nations from marauding US fascists. It has to happen because allowing the US to just wipe the entire Western hemisphere of non-whites is not viable for the rest of the world to survive. They MUST stop the European virus from spreading and consolidating if they are going to have a sustainable future society.
it would end pretty quickly in nuclear exchange and ending of the world effectively for humans
I don't think so. I think after the Navy breaks, if the nukes haven't flown already, they won't fly.
The most likely thing is the world trying to ignore the US and let it just collapse on itself and never bother with some risky and impossible liberation of NA mission.
There's no such thing as collapse on itself. There's nukes here. The US collapsing is going to result in an explicit nuclear death cult. The US occupies the hemisphere, it does not belong here. If society collapses, it means mass white death, which isn't going to happen before mass mobilization of white supremacists along religious and mystical lines. I think the rest of the world sees the US as a very dangerous thing to sustain and a more dangerous thing to collapse and therefore will be required to physically participate in dismantling it deliberately. Which is why all of this is predicated on breaking the Navy first and significantly constraining the freedom of movement in the air.
Can't wait for the political pundits and economists of my country to have an existential crisis over no longer being able to sum up every government decision by "Dollar exchange value went down/up so it is good/bad". Doubt it will be as quick as he makes it out to be though, he's probably going for one of those quick cash grab book deals.
Haha likely, although the narrative itself has power. The more people talk about dedollarization the more the idea becomes normalized. So he is doing his part in a way. :)
Yeah, I've never heard so many people openly talking about the possibility of not relying on the dollar in South America. The USA's grip on people's mind seems to finally have begun wavering after 60 years of trusting them and their Harvard economists blindly.
about time really
It's a hyperstition.
indeed
What is the pre-archive link? The CAPTCHA is messing with me
oh here, on a second thought don't even know why it was archived when I ran across it :) https://mronline.org/2023/06/09/ex-cia-advisor-predicts-date-when-u-s-dollar-hegemony-will-collapse/
thanks 👍