Who could have seen this coming except every single semi informed person.
Problem is: almost everyone thinks he is well informed while almost none ist.
I don't know why you are being downvoted, it's not like Dunning-Krueger doesn't exist
Explains itself.
I feel like polls have been saying that since before Brexit was even finalised :') the only good I ever thought might come of Brexit was it might make things so bad in Britain that it might help spark some kind of revolution..
As soon as the fuzzy "imagine anything you want" of the referendum collapsed into "you must pick one and come up with a plan to mitigate the consequences" of May's government!
Any specific result would always have had a minority - the 'majority' vote was made up of people wanting opposite things.
Yeah. That’s the issue isn’t it. There was one version of remain but dozens of versions of leave but people only got to choose between two options.
Then when the government realised that there were so many different opinions of what leave meant they spent more than a year with no progress.
UK public is too divided to revolt in any way. They're perpetually on the back foot reacting to "scandals".
What was it actually supposed to accomplish? I mean, I'm an American who mostly followed the whole thing via UK chat and panel shows so I'm sure I missed a ton of detail, but I don't remember there being an over-arching goal, just a lot of little nebulous promises like somehow generating an extra 350 million a week for the NHS, but with no actual plan for how any of that was actually going to happen. It seemed like the whole point was to let xenophobic shit disturbers flick the Vs at Europe, and the vague notion that once Brexit was done it'd finally be open season on "those bloody immigrants."
OK, so...
The reason why it happened is that the Conservative Party government was wildly unpopular in 2013-2014 with all of the indications being that Ed Miliband's Labour Party were going to storm the Conservatives at the 2015 General Election. Furthermore, ever since the Thatcher governments of the 1980s, the Conservatives were weakened by the 'Eurosceptic' branch of their party often being vocal, disruptive, difficult to work with, and harming the 'Not the Nasty Party' narrative Conservative Party Central HQ (CCHQ) had often tried to push in the 90s and the 00s.
Offering a referendum on the European Union therefore had two advantages:
This is of course on the assumption that the referendum passed. And never let anyone tell you otherwise, David Cameron (then-PM) and George Osbourne (then-Chancellor; finance secretary and 2nd most important cabinet member) absolutely would not have proposed the referendum if they believed it had any chance of failing.
Furthermore, they assumed they'd be out of government and the referendum would never see the light of day. To the arrogant, and out-of-touch Cameron and Osbourne the policy was all upside.
As it happens, for a variety of reasons, the Conservatives actually won the 2015 General Election with a majority (whereas they were in a coalition before). And, as promised, a referendum was planned.
For a substantial period of time (late 18th-century to mid-20th century), Britain was unquestionably the most powerful empire in the world. This is within living memory. The culture and expectation of Britain being a 1st rate world power is something that has only begun to fade within the past couple of generations. But a significant number of older people (people who vote) were raised and educated with the fair understanding that Britain was a superpower. For example, all of my grandparents and most of great Uncles and Aunts were being educated at a time when Britain still held all of India and most of Africa.
Since the Second World War, Britain's place in the world has unquestionably declined. We no longer have the Empire. We racked up tremendous amounts of debt to the United States. For periods in the 1970s, Britain was widely considered the 'sick man' of Europe. The feel good moments of the 1990s and Cool Britannia were quickly doused by the War in Iraq, where Tony Blair was universally seen as a puppet of the Bush administration.
Since the 1980s in-particular, life has changed for many in the United Kingdom beyond recognition. Trade unions were razed. Income disparity has skyrocketed. Town centres have become neglected. Internal tourism has been decimated. Cities like Leicester started becoming majority-minority. 2008 and the Great Recession tumbled the New Labour government and brought in a Conservative government. All parties at the 2010 general election bought into the consensus that the only way the country would survive would be to gut public sector spending. Healthcare would worsen. Education would worsen. Adult social care would worsen. Local government services would worsen.
A very large number of people came to the rational conclusion that, at least for them, their lives had gotten worse and would continue to get worse. But how does one consolidate this very clear observation with:
A lot of the media attempted to bridge this issue with a scapegoat: the European Union.
Euroscepticism first found a voice with Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. She often disagreed with a significant number of the leaders on the continent and didn't appreciate being limited in how she could act.
Thoughout the 1990s and the 2000s, the whole media knew they could gather attention by blaming various problems on the European Union. A notable young journalist, Boris Johnson, was particularly renowned for the ludicrous and inaccurate stories he wrote on European Union directives.
The European Union was an outstanding scapegoat:
It had something for everyone. Before the result of the referendum, you'd never hear anyone defend the EU. It was seen by most of its defenders as a necessary evil in a world we could no longer rule, and isn't it nice you don't need a visa to go to Spain? No positive case was ever put forward by anyone. There was little point to. There was never any risk of us leaving.
Now, the European Union is an imperfect project. However, thanks to the economic and cultural connections brought about by the EU, Western Europe is at the lowest risk of internal armed conflict in millennia of history. Europeans are more familiar with one another than they've ever been before. Smaller states such as Ireland remain independent and sovereign but now have defenders, and allies, and representatives that allow them to assert themselves globally.
These arguments hold much less weight on an island nation, that hasn't known armed conflict within its borders since the Glorious Revolution (excluding Ireland), who within living memory had the power and the influence to dominate half the globe.
No one appreciated the EU until it was already too late. And all of the rich newspaper editors who made bank on peddling lies about this foreign government to a lost, and disaffected public thought it'd be consequence free.
What was it supposed to accomplish? Nothing. The referendum was never supposed to happen, and if it did, it was never meant to pass. No one with any power or influence had any idea on what to do. What Brexit would look like. What some fringe politicians had promised was an emotional return to self-government, wealth, power, influence, independence. A turning back of the clock.
Excellent post. If there is an equivalent of /r/bestof this would be worthy. It is super telling that rather than stick around and deal with the ramifications of the referendum, Cameron immediately resigned. Another point of context is that Cameron had gambled his political life previously on a different referendum (Scottish Independence) and that one worked out fine, so what is the harm in trying that gambit one more time?
Wow, thank you :) that's an amazing compliment. Brexit has the dangerous combination of tremendous emotional investment and piquing my interest in domestic politics. Hence the rant 😂
This is a superb comment! Thanks for taking the time to post it
What some fringe politicians had promised was an emotional return to self-government, wealth, power, influence, independence.
And what they delivered instead was essentially Britain becoming a de-facto US-client state.
Gee, it's almost as if you can't trust right-wingers these days.
Remain "More of the same but we will try make it better"
Brexit "the current situation is shit and everyone's giving you the same old arguments again don't trust them. If you vote Brexit we can have all your dreams come true"
Remain was one option. Brexit was about 5 different options depending on who was pushing it. So Brexit offered a lot more options in a sort of Schrodinger's paradox.
Basically what was being offered was more freedom to make our own choices and not have the EU pulling us down. Not having to have the stupid EU rules and not having to pay the stupid EU money, we could keep all our fish and be rich. It offered power, freedom, growth, wealth. (In reality we had great veto powers, we could help form rules, the EU membership was a bargain, who gives a fuck about fish).
Also Boris Johnson is a massive [can we swear here?]. And would sell his own children for his own personal gain, but for some reason is loved by the British, seen it as a way to make a name for himself by going against the grain and pushing for something no logical person would vote for. When that unexpectedly came true he hid in a fridge and ran away for a few months (actually true).
It was an absolute shower and just shows how uneducated the British public is. It's their own God damn fault all the info was out there, someone just said what they wanted to hear and they believed it.
Arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage thinks Brexit has failed.
After months of lying to the British people, screwing over GB and becoming a meme, reactionary fuck Farage thinks he might have been wrong. But it gets better:
The former Brexit Party leader told the BBC in May that the U.K. had not benefited economically from leaving the bloc, blaming the ruling Conservatives for having “let us down very, very badly.”
So, no. He wasn't wrong. How could he ever be wrong?! Like a wise man with a funny voice once said: It wasn't me.
If you click the link to the article about him saying it failed, he says:
Asked if the U.K. would have been better off remaining in the EU Farage insisted he didn’t “think that for a moment.”
So I think he's sticking to his guns that leaving was better than staying. The situation sucks for everyone in the UK :(
Well, he made so many contradicting promises. It would be impossible to implement his Brexit. Pretty sure tha was his plan. When he offered full control over our trade, laws and migration. While also claiming we could be like EEA nations.
Technically, it didn't fail. It happened exactly the way anyone sane expected it to. That's why people said it's a stupid fucking idea.
The majority of the pro-brexit voters main goal was to 'deport all them foreigners', which was impossible with freedom of movement. When brexit 'got done' and it turned out those brown people they saw at the doctor were actually third generation brits, but the nice white couple down the street were actually non-brits and were forced to leave, many changed their mind.
But the Tories and new-new labor won't even consider a re-vote. Heck, after 12 by-election losses, Tories won't even consider a general until statue forces them.
Briturn when?
Regardless of butthurt feelings on either side, it can't happen. The EU doesn't do special treatments anymore, so Britain would be forced to adopt the Euro, and would not benefit from any of the special "opt-out" clauses it had negotiated before leaving. This is unacceptable to everyone who voted for Brexit, as well as to the moderate pro-Europe crowd. i.e. completely politically untenable.
For better and (mostly) for worse, Britain will spend the next few decades isolated on the European level. Best case scenario would be, in a decade or two, for the UK to join the EEA, but that's still a huge downgrade in every way compared to full membership as British companies would be subject to all the rules of the European Single Market without getting a vote in any of them, in exchange for getting access back to the EU market.
Just wait until the next currency crisis hits and the Pound falls below Euro parity. Since the introduction of the Euro in 2000 the Pound has already lost almost 30% of its value in a direct comparison and could not recover since the Brexit vote.
Imagine if that actually happens within the next few years.
Then we have another call for brexit in another fifteen.
It surprises me that so many people think it didn't fail. Remainers, which as far as I can remember nearly made up 50%, will almost all think it has failed from the start because they see the whole Brexit as a failed idea. And many Brexiteers seemed to have very unrealistic ideas about Brexit, seemingly thinking that they could just boss the EU around and get everything their way. And because we don't live in their fairytale Brexit utopia world, they would always have been disappointed. Add to that the general incompetency of the Conservatives and it's honestly quite astounding that anyone still thinks it's going well.
Maybe someday one of the politicians will grow a pair and either launch rejoin agenda or at the least a Norway/Swiss model.
It should be clear to anyone with more than an 🦠 for a brain cell that it is a failed ideal.
The eu won’t allow another Norway or Swiss model. It’s created too many headaches. Of the uk rejoins, they will commit to the euro and lose their CAP rebate, just like any other new entrant. It’ll probably only take 10 years before accession talks.
The price the UK will have to pay. What can I say, play stupid games win stupid prizes.
But even that price would be more beneficial than the present state of affairs.
Literally everyone saw this coming but they didn't listen. If only more of the people who wanted to remain went out to vote back then...
Now do climate change.
Propaganda is a powerful drug. They didn’t listen because Rupert didn’t want them to.
Robert Mercer (and thus Russia) is to blame. Also Dominic Cummings and his "Vote leave" smear campaign.
Everyone who didn't should see Brexit - The Uncivil War
I knew since Day 1
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farage will never take responsibility for anything. absolute slug of a man.
Harsh on slugs.
when you have to suffer for the slow learners.
It's has been truly bizarre watching that country commit to communal suicide even as an American. You out Murica'd America.
I thought there was a LeopardsAteMyFace community in this server
But.... No takie backie?
That's why people should realise, every vote is precious. The point of democracy was that the majority vote makes the decision.
As an European who clearly was anti-Brexit and saw Britain leave with great sadness, what’s the point of these kind of polls or keep saying “Brexit failed!”?
I mean, yeah, it looks like it failed… are you going to do anything about it? Are you asking back in? You can’t take it back, can you?
I don’t know. At some point you need to admit that you screwed up, and move on. Yes, maybe post-Brexit UK is not ideal, but try to do the best you can in this situation and try to lessen the impact as much as you can, don’t you think?
I like Brits, you’re very smart. I think you’re capable enough to handle the situation and make the most out of it. The EU likes you. Nobody wanted you to leave. And even then, the EU wants you near. We can keep cooperating and we should try to have the best possible relationship. You are still a European country, even if you’re not part of the EU.
I hope we all can make things work. Cheers.
Cheers mate, try to tell that to Sunak and co. They don't care. Will of the people. Etc.
I like Brits, you're very smart
As Brexit should have taught you: no, no we are not.
It's such a weird question because it presumes we agree there was a consensus goal.
I'm not a Britt, but that guy deserves some jail time for vote manipulation and all the loss that both UK and EU had because of the political shitshow called the Brexit.
The problem is that far too many people think there's a way to fix it. By getting rid of every single immigrant, for example.
Give it a few years and conservatives will spin it into "Refugees voted us out of the EU!"
The majority of people who are paying the price for Brexit are the ones who didn't vote for it...
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