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this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2024
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Eh, there's one additional way we can stop them. A landslide victory that puts her massively over the electoral college threshold would make a handful of compromised counties completely irrelevant.
It will cast doubt on the election process regardless. This is very dangerous rhetoric, and unfortunately there's about 20% of the country that wants this.
it's important that nobody sinks into complacency even if harris's victory is looking like an absolute blowout towards the end. GOP absolutely WILL do literally everything they can to undermine the election. everything from 2020 plus more
The point is not to get complacent. They've had four years and the backing of numerous new agencies and billionaires in that time to work on how they can get it right. Don't they already have Georgia or some shit promising not to certify? Remember how long it took those shithole states to certify in 2020, the corruption.ans intimidation at voting sights? That was all before they knew what they were doing or has time to plan and get on the same page.
Because they spent the last 4 years infiltrating election groups, running out the honest people, and making sure election deniers are in charge wherever they can get them.
Last time they were I'll prepared and stopped by a whole lotta responsible people. Most.of those people have moved away after all the death threats they got over this, and have been replaced by people who are, shall we say, a little less queasy with questionable practices like fraud.
20% of the country are traitors and Trump put a good chunk of them in office.
Look at the supreme court. His appointees are going to fuck up our country for decades and there is no political will to deal with it.
Welp maybe it’s time then to drone the shit out of them.
40%...we have really devolved as a country.
I do think this is the only way. It's not 270towin this year, we need a margin.
Most people in America can’t do anything about that though. Only the people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
Nah. Even if you are in a safe state, vote. Even if you are in a state run by weirdos, vote. Literally vote.
It worked in 2020. trump had more votes than in 2016 and he lost by even more. January 6th had no chance of success because it was obvious who won. Taking the capitol building doesn't mean anything.
The supreme court doesn't even mean anything without the consent of the governed. The British won the War of 1812 and literally burned the White House to the ground. They still had to leave because the US is so big that it's literally ungovernable without consent of the population.
The British definitely did NOT win the war of 1812. Wtf are you talking about?
The official results are "inconclusive". The US lost more lives, more money, and the capital. I call that a loss, especially since the US declared war to begin with. What do you call it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_1812
Leave it to the Brits to be beaten by America's weather.
What's the electoral college threshold? I was wondering just recently if there's any percentage of popular that matters more than the electoral college.
The number to reach is 270 EC votes. However, it is very possible to reach that number while not winning the popular vote. That's why certain states (such as PA, GA, AZ) tend to be the "battleground" states as they have enough EC votes to shift the election and usually aren't reliably red or blue.
If I remember correctly, it's theoretically possible to win the Presidency of the US while only winning something like 25% of the popular vote (though in practice, if you're able to win the states to pull something like that off you're also going to be winning the bigger states as well so your victory would look more like Reagan's).
Jesus Christ. If Trump won 25% of the popular vote and still became president, I hope it'd finally be enough to get the country to revolt.
270 total electoral college votes. No, the popular does not matter, just the 50 individual states. They distribute their electoral college votes in different ways, each state gets to set its own rules.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College
That's not in the cards given the last 4 years. Remember we only won in the wake of a mass uprising, with most people thinking they were voting to defund the police, defend Roe, free healthcare, less war, legalization of pot, freeing the concentration camps on the border, etc.
We'll be lucky if Trump's campaign shitting itself and Biden dropping out are enough to compensate for the last 4 years of either inaction or making things worse.
I don't think people voted for Joe Biden for those reasons. Except maybe defend Roe.
I talked to a lot of people in 2020, the younger voters absolutely thought that's what they were voting for. You underestimate how low-information the average american is. They associated free healthcare or defunding the police with democrats, and thought Biden was running on those things.
Yeah, apologies, but I don't tend to believe personal accounts given over the internet. Just out of general principle.
They're a lemmy.ml so to me they start out with no credibility.
OK, get your own anecdotes, ask random, apolitical coworkers "Who are you voting for, and what policies or actions will they implement that you like. What policies or actions do you expect to implement that you don't like".
It's no longer 2020, so I'm sure the specifics have changed, but I'm certain you'll find incoherent ideas very loosely related to reality.
Sure, you can find anecdotes for anything. But anybody expecting defund the police out of a moderate like Biden was ignorant, which is fairly uncommon among actual progressives. Dude was clearly old dem establishment, he was Obama's VP and defeated the progressives like Bernie in the primary after all.
edit: Oh, and if you think all dems want progressive values, that's a very strong sign that you're consuming conservative media. That's their line.
Once again, the average american is very low-information. A few times I had to explain that the primary vote had been the one to decide whether any of the policies that would help them would be on the ballet, and stuff like emptying the camps, defunding the police, and cutting military spending weren't even on that.
Progressives are told that dems share their values, or infer that from republicans opposing those values.
Yeah that's true, most people are not particularly engaged with politics. This is partly what lets Trump get away with switching his positions so often.
If we look at the House though, where each member represents a fairly small district, we see that the squad is progressive and has a handful of members out of hundreds. They side with the dems due to the two party system, but are just a small faction within it. Ultimately we just don't have the numbers. Dems try to court us, but also try to court the never Trump repubs that fled their party.
I don't think I've ever encountered a progressive that thought the dem party was all AOCs and Bernies and not a whole bunch of more status quo, "typical politician" types. Though that could just be a regional culture thing.
they're neck-and-neck in the polls; how do you think that this will happen?
is it because you're one of those people who disregard polls?
Polls are going to be skewed tpwards the people that answer the phone calls from random phone numbers flagged Spam or Political.
How many have called you this cycle? How many did you answer?
i've seen spam calls, but i've never seen political before and i suspect my demographic data will guarantee that i will never get a phone call from a poll worker.
They didn't start for me until after I turned 45. Not sure what to make of that, if anything.
if it does mean anything it would suggest that i'm right about my demographics precluding a call since it should have started a few years ago; if 45 is the magic age for it.
My number probably made it onto a few lists last couple election cycles from donations and petition support, and that might be more likely than age. But we are talking about the racist states of america so it's entriely possible the difference is out demographics...which is stupid and infuriating, but silver lining: good for you without the extra calls to ignore?
that seems to further confirm my suspicions since i have been donating since 1996.
worst silver lining ever since the suffering endured by people with similar demographics have at the hands of democrats and republicans alike (especially biden) is less stupid and infuriating than the shitlibs on the fediverse and reddit that brand you privileged for pointing any of this out; no matter how much you've suffered.
There's prediction markets and bookies making odds as well. People putting money on the line are probably a little more accurate than polls by themselves. Looks like people think the odds currently favor Harris, but not by a large margin. 50.9% chance for Harris and 47.1% for Trump (https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/08/09/harris-has-vaulted-past-trump-as-the-bookies-favorite-to-win-presidential-election/). IIRC, prediction markets significantly favored Clinton in 2016 right before the results came back though.
HERE you go, buddy.
Everyone else, ignore polls, and just VOTE.
i don't doubt that polls can be wrong; i asked my question because i was confused by the other poster's position
Polls skew to the right. You should expect to see a few safe red states flip to blue. This is the first presidential election since J6, and the first since roe was overturned. A lot of centrists, and even Republicans are just fucking sick of seeing and hearing Donald Trump. And not to mention most people only voted for Biden because he wasn't trump, not because they were enthusiastic about Biden. That's also different this election. Not to mention project 2025, and Donald's credible threats of dictatorship. He lost in 2020 and it's only going to be more lopsided this time.
this has been a thing since 1980 and it's bonkers that we only just now started caring about it, but it makes sense that no one brought it up during an election year since biden has been one of its biggest proponents; like he voted against anti-gay marriage in 1996; bragged about creating the student loan debt law he created in 2005; expressed pride at supporting segregationists during the 2020 election; very publicly told anita hill to stop complaining and shut up about sexual harassment from clarence thomas in 1991; and advocated against letting lgbtq in federal service from 1972 to 2012.
it's a VERY good thing he's not in the race anymore because now the candidates are actually different from each other now.
And it will continue to be a thing. They'll keep trying. But we need to keep people aware that they won't stop trying. But their ranks will continue to fall. We just need to do what we can to make sure that we do all we can to help that process along.
For what it's worth, Biden has grown and moved left over the course of his political career, and that's a good thing. We should give credit where it's due. Yeah, he wasn't perfect by any means, but he did save democracy for another 4 years. If we need to fight it 4 years at a time, so be it. But he did a good job with what he had vs the expectations. He got a lot done considering what he was working against, and honestly I'm proud of him for it. That being said, we need to move on to continue to progress.
biden et. al along w the republicans have enacted nearly 75% of project 2025's recommendations since 1980.
biden is currently making the wrong decision; it's seriously fucking up people's lives; and there's literally allies and opponents alike telling him he's making the wrong choice (as he has done before in the examples i cited earlier); but he's still ignoring all the advice and all the evidence and continuing support the genocide, no matter what the cost and damage it's doing (again as he had done in the examples i cited earlier).
biden has not grown or moved; the issues have.
I take polls under advisement, though recent years have definitely demonstrated that there are issues with them. Regardless of their veracity, though, they are subject to shifting as time goes on.
they're supposed to shift and that's why it's called polling; you're taking action to measure that shift, if any/
Uh, no, that is not why they are called polls.
Yes to them being supposed to shift though.
i'm not referring to the etymology of the word and your response seems to conflict with your previous post.
your previous post says:
and this post says:
If you're not referring to the etymology, then why did you bring up why they are called polls?
No, I said I take them under advisement. This is an in-between stance between trusting them completely and discarding them completely. This is preferable to any sort of purist, absolutist position that would not be able to keep up with a world where things can change.