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Ukraine said it shot down a $36 million Su-34 bomber jet inside Russia
(www.businessinsider.com)
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this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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There is no way for Russia to rebuild all this Soviet stock and the war aint even over. How are they planning on securing their borders after the war when every country in the west hates them and China will make a play for Siberia and Far East by 2100.
You sure 2100?
If I was China I'd make a play for it by the end of the year, fuck Taiwan when you could snag all that free real-estate and precious metals Russia should have been mining instead of losing their ass in a war.
Why would China need to invade Russia when they can just buy the resources? Russia would certainly like something to cover the huge trade imbalance.
not only chinese can buy resources from russians, they can do so on wildly favourable terms. they can have all that oil and iron ore and whatever without the trouble of actually occupying siberia
Right, China has an opportunity now while Russia is desperate, and that window will be open at least a generation for Russia to rebuild and repopulate, so this could be much earlier than OP predicted
There were some talking heads some months ago saying that the Ukraine war would determine if China expands into Taiwan militarily or russia economically. No need for weapons in the second case.
I still don't really see China attacking Taiwan as a particularly likely since it would involve tangling with the US, which may not come to anything but is an unknown factor.
China won't militarily invade Taiwan until they have their own semiconductor foundry that rivals TSMC
Haha.
China is one of the most impatient countries around, driven by the whims of the general secretary. Just look at how badly they rushed into HK, all they had to do was follow the original dates and it would’ve been a smooth transfer, instead they rushed in and caused huge conflicts, in turn dropping the one country two systems bullshit narrative and souring Taiwan off any chance of reunification.
They’re currently pumping ultranationalism hard with their gen z/alpha, and are facing potential future economic issues, a war is a great outlet for angry young people. I could easily see them rushing into armed conflict with Taiwan without having their own foundries. Same as that spectacularly backfired “wolf warrior diplomacy”.
Its about face not economics. You can’t except rationality from human actors.
China has done pretty well expanding economically and mostly staying out of warmongering. I really hope that continues, but switching to a more militaristic approach with their recent military expansion would be bad for us all …. Probably including them
Certainly including them. China has benefited greatly from their trading relationship with the rest of the world and continues to do so, and unlike Russia their foreign policy is much more pragmatic than personal.
The only way they make a play for Taiwan is if they are convinced they can do it without the US becoming materially involved. This would most likely mean winning so quickly that the fighting is already over by the time the US can seriously mobilize, but even that would likely turn into a larger conflict.
China has to maintain the idea that any day now they'll retake Taiwan, for a number of reasons. Mostly because it's a necessary pillar of their internal politics. But in practice the real value they obtain from it would be seriously diminished by the astonishing costs. The biggest practical benefit would be ability to completely control the world's supply of semiconductors (sure was a genius idea to let everyone outsource that to TSMC), but that value will diminish if the US and other countries continue to invest in domestic chop production (add that to the list of actually good things Biden did by the way).
China has been escalating its practice of economic imperialism for year now. They have been fortifying the waters around the islands they claim, but aren't under their control. They have been running into more and more economic issues, and are not recovering from them as well as they had been. Given this, I do not for a second believe China will never get into the expansion game.
So they'd become a kind of vassal state?
I could totally see that, especially if something happens to Putin.
What I saw was that North China is DRY. They need tons of water. And russia has lake Baikal nearby. These kinds of Nestlé-style tricks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlUJwbL7SM8
Imagine all the anger russians feel towards the US for not being able to magically fix their country in the 90s but now turned towards their growing and grabby neighbour.
Wait, did Russians really believe the U.S. was supposed to fix it after the collapse of the USSR?
That's not how government works what the hell is wrong with people over there
I'm exaggerating for the sake of argument, but I've seen tankies and russians on youtube make this argument unironically to justify why russia had the right to do whatever it wanted to recover its empire and that they had a right to revenge for the "decade of humiliation" and shock therapy.
For what it’s worth the west had a history of helping in these events, we did fuck all for them really when the Soviet Union broke apart.
It wasn’t our job, but it woulda gone a LONG fucking way to bettering relations.
I could see feeling bitter we didn’t help but to take it as far as blaming us for their woes is just classic “it’s their fault” mentality.
Look at Japan and Germany as examples of how it may have played out.
Although funny enough that’s what we promised to do in Japan after WWII.
https://youtu.be/YzRWPGSaKDk
They did experience rapid economic growth, and did move to a democratic government, though as usual the right wing leadership took hold both here and there, and we just wanted Japan as a military base to counter those commie Russians, and they wanted to nullify the treaty preventing them from having a standing army
Don't know about "expect", but at the time there seemed to be popular hope that with the collapse of USSR they would get some of that sweet western prosperity. When that did not come to pass even when by all accounts the Russian government of that time was trying to lean into normalized relations with the west, then some "the west still keeps us down" narrative is unsurprising. It was in the midst of continued economic struggle that Putin came along and started reasserting a more nationalistic philosophy in Russia.
While it might not have been reasonable to expect, in retrospect it might have been in NATO's best interest to be more proactive in helping Russia during that window where they were actually friendly. They might have managed to avert Putin's rise to power.
:/ huh? So, why are the russians resentful for the 90s towards the US? That's what I am talking about, during Yeltsin post-USSR, not Gorbachov.
China is expanding into both economically. That's been the strategy for the last 50 years.
I think Russia's plan was to enslave the Ukrainian people and force them to rebuild the russian military.
Ah, you mean Russia's perpetual solution until Ukraine won their independence.
They can't even make sufficient ball bearings to keep their railroad alive; they depended entirely on western imports lol
Solid propaganda but I am sure China can machine them some fucking ball bearings lol
There are shortages though.
The bearings in trains are actually pretty complicated to build. They use slanted roller bearings, not just regular old ball bearings. 10 companies in the world make like 70% of all rail bearings, and 5 of those are in Japan. Plus, only a few countries produce the two steel alloys that you make these bearings out of.
China does produce around 20% of the bearings used in trains, but pretty much all of it gets used for domestic purposes and they still have to import due to their massive rail expansion projects
Okay im ignorant on this one, why do trains use ball bearings? And is this for traditional trains or high speed?
Pretty much anything with a turning wheel and axel relies on some sort of bearing system. That means traditional and high speed rail systems both require them.
There are some differences in types of bearing depending on what you use your rail system for. In the US we utilize antiquated plain bearings that are relatively easy to manufacture, but that's because our rolling stock is ancient compared to most countries. Mainly because we rely heavily on trucks for transporting most goods and haven't bothered investing in our aging rail network.
In Russia they have a much more modern rolling stock, as everything they ship goes through their rail network. Their rolling stock utilizes angled/slanted roller bearings, which can vastly increase their weight capacity, speed, and can double to triple their lifespan. The only problem is that they are complicated to manufacture.
This has really peaked my interest. Are these the types of bearings you are referring to? I’d like to read more but not misinform myself. https://www.savree.com/en/encyclopedia/tapered-roller-bearing-rail
Yep, that's a tapered/angled roller bearing. They're conceptually a pretty easy concept, but deceptively hard to manufacture
100% this isn't a lost technology, it "just" needs some machines built
Does Russia even have that precision machining capability?
yes, they are capable. have you ever shot an AK-47?? They are marvels of engineering. You can bury it in mud, pick it up, and shoot it with no malfunction.
dont underestimate our enemies, that puts them at an advantage.
The ball bearings are made in Germany with a very specific level of precision that China can definitely replicate given how they rapidly caught up to the rest of the world in the past 30 years economically and technologically. (Hint was done primarily through corporate espionage and theft)
fuck IP, knowledge belongs to the world not imaginary borders created by hairless apes.
honestly. the reason 3D printing didnt take off until 2012? IP We could have been making progress in this technology since the 90s. but no.... Imagine where we could be today if greed didnt keep that tech locked up for decades.
We have been stifling progress in the name of IP while China is starting to gain ground faster and faster.
I bought a chinese made phone, oneplus open, and it blew me away. US foldable phones are 2 years behind, despite being created by TRILLION dollar US companies. If the US is so afraid of competition maybe we should start competing!?
Everything you said I agree.
!RemindMe 2100 Did China do this?
Heard they don't know how to build the Su-34 any longer (old forgotten Soviet stuff), only service and upgrade them.
Putin us really thinking with his ass now, they haven't lost the battle but they sure seems to have lost the war.
Ffs.
Yeah, even if it ends tomorrow (which it will not, not even close) this has totally screwed over Russia.