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this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2024
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The russian army is entirely bound in its invasion into Ukraine. If it weren't for the threat of nuclear annihilation, NATO would get to Moscow within 3 days. A true 3-day military operation.
No, no, don't worry, they still have their secondary army of sad conscripts (poor people only, don't worry) who are ritually tortured for a year as a rite of adulthood.
I'm pretty sure that's the army they're using at the moment, I remember seeing news stories of elderly Farmers being conscripted over a year ago
There's a second, even-sadder army behind that one. In the Donbass, (previously? Not sure how it is now) legally distinct from Russia itself, they were just mass-conscripting people for the meat grinder. The actual Russian citizens in Ukraine, though, are overwhelmingly volunteers (and overwhelmingly impoverished ethnic minorities) who were bribed or tortured during their rite of adulthood until they said "Dying in Ukraine is better than this" and 'voluntarily' signed a service contract.
third times the charm right?
Implying western countries never invaded Moscow or something? Poland held it for a year, russians made it a national holiday when they finally got it back.
Too bad Poland didn't stay
Then what? Let us not fall into the Iraq trap
Even with nuclear annihilation, NATO could still get to Moscow in a three day operation. It's just a question of which cities back home are still standing.
Moscow is not the big prize you might think it is. Russia can just retreat hundreds of kilometers further east and carry on.
NATO can do the thunder run, but they are not equipped to win a massive land war in Asia. You really gotta listen to the Sicilian from Princess Bride on this one.
Into what, a wasteland full of snow and bears? Russia might be massive, but it works like Canada. Everybody is huddled into very specific regions for a reason.
Occupying Moscow is like occupying DC. The politicians will fly to safety and you are left occupying a city of low level administrative personnel and restaurants. Nothing of military value is manufactured in Moscow just like DC.
Except there isn't a California 1000 miles away, there is only Bumfuck Alabama.
Most of their industry is there, because it’s where most of people live.
No, it's in the Urals
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motovilikha_Plants
I'm just repeating what happened or what the plan was the last couple of go arounds, with Napoleon and Hitler.
Napoleon did occupy Moscow, but it didn't help him very much.
Hitler was turned back just short of Moscow, but the Russian government had all sorts of continuity plans that involved moving further east. Entire factories were uprooted and shipped into the Urals.
Try doing that now
Soviets would've gotten their ass handed to them without lend lease.
Because he was trying to wait for the Tsar's peace negotiations. Not because taking Moscow wasn't a major victory. The issue is that Napoleon had no intention of pursuing the war any further, but the Tsar was not willing to give up at the point they were at, because the Tsar realized that Napoleon wanted a quick surrender, not a chase across the Asian steppes.
If nukes started popping off, there'd be zero reason to send in ground forces until it was all over. Lastly, I'm not convinced Russia's nuclear program is much better off than NATO's. So many interviews with nuke watch officers talking about how old and decrepit our silos are. The DoD supposedly approved a modernization package a few years ago for all of them, but I'm still skeptical how efficient the targeting is on everything and how well they'll avoid missile defense systems.
None of the current ICBM platforms were designed for missile defense. Missile defense simply did not exist at the time.
Sentinel is busting its budget because it's renovating and rebuilding all of the ground segments: all of those decrepit silos and computer systems. It's still money well spent in my opinion.
Missile guidance is not a computationally hard problem, and it hasn't changed much since the 50s. Terminal missile defense is a fantastically hard problem, and wasn't mastered until the last decade or two. And the current generation missile defense capabilities still haven't all been demonstrated in combat.
Having said that, I would generally expect NATO's missiles to work as advertised in a hot war. And I would plan for Russia's missiles to be somewhat less effective than they advertise, but still a credible threat.
It's difficult to counter a MIRV regardless of how old it is.
All valid and fair points.
Regardless, I truly hope we never have to find out either way. The human species is capable of incredible things if we just set aside historical, cultural, and petty differences and worked towards a common goal of lifting everyone up. Wars of aggression are barbaric and unnecessary and I hope one day we all mentally evolve past such tendencies for mass violence. It's a naive pipe dream, but one can always dream.
Nobody has ever considered Russia a prize, or at least nobody that wasn't a complete idiot.
It's a festering shithole full of Russians, a nuke would improve it dramatically.
Nobody wants to win a war in Russia, but nobody has to.
Knock out Moscow, the rest of Russia hates them and will fracture instantly.
Many beautiful women that never smile.
I hate jingoistic bullshit. 3days? How many years were we in Afghanistan?
Ukraine troops are battle hardened and have NATO tanks and weapons. They are holding on but territory changes are tiny. Modern war isn't WW2 blitzkrieg.
The actual entry into Afghanistan and overwhelming of local forces was wildly fast? The majority of our time in Afghanistan wasn't slowly advancing on Kabul. It was failing miserably to build a coherent state sympathetic to US interests amidst a mad dash of privatized MIC interests maximally extracting revenues from the US.
Yup, doesn't help that Afghanistan is like 5 territories masquerading as one whole state. The only reason Afghanistan hasn't split is because of the Taliban holding it together.
Was answering a different comment
Yes, you take Moscow in 3 days like Kabul, then what? It has no military value.
How many will then die over the decades to road side bombs?
I think you're underestimating the importance of Moscow in today's Russia. It's not like it was in Napoleon's time or even Stalin's. Russia has become a much more centralized State and Moscow has become incredibly crucial to the way the country is run. To the point that there's widespread dissatisfaction with the power of Moscow. Speak to anyone in outlying areas and they speak of Moscow with resentment. There's a reason there's so many separatist movements in Russia.
I don't know anything about Moscow other than what I read. As to speaking about Moscow with resentment, that's exactly how all of the rural US talks about DC.
Other than a nuclear strike, all politicians would have plenty of time to evacuate. Modern communications makes their physical location irrelevant.
Most of their people and industry is there, you can’t just lift all your factories and move them east like it’s 1940
Well, you can. They just had more than 3 days.
They never left the Urals
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motovilikha_Plants
Edit for the downvoters: I did more googling.
Here's more
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ramping-up-war-production/32658857.html
One in the list is near Moscow.
If you want to downvote, show your list of weapon factories in Moscow.
What kind of troll are you?
I'm attempting to be realistic in a thread filled with young kids who aren't well educated on modern war.
Modern war isn't WW2 armor thrusts where you take the capital and the war is over.
NATO needs to supply Ukraine so they win. Then you can start talking about how NATO could defeat Russia in 3 days. Show that we can win first.