this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2026
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You're making the mistake of comparing general rape accusations to highly political ones. They are not equivalent in any way.
By far the vast majority of rape accusations are not fake. And if this accusation had come out in a way that didn't make it highly likely to be politically motivated, then I would assume the same probability applies. But we're not talking about a typical rape accusation here. False rape accusations due occur in politics. It's a tool Republicans have used before.
The nature of elections make false rape accusations to be massively more likely than the usual case. In the case of elections, you're not trying to create a case convincing enough to convince a jury; all you need to do is to dominate the headlines for a few days. Drop the accusation at the right time, and the candidate won't have time to properly investigate or debunk it.
You can make it a percentage of accusations on political candidates. I'm not gonna gotcha here, I just want to know what you think the percentage is, and what about this accusation you think is false. The only thing you're saying is that it came out so late, but that's not particularly weird for rape accusations, even those not against political candidates, so if there was more to why you think it's fake, you should point out those details and how they differ from a normal accusation.
You're overthinking this. It's just a matter of having a proper bullshit detector. Historically, these kinds of October surprises often turn out false. Republicans have used false rape allegations against Democrats before. You're portraying this as me thinking the victim is lying, but all I want is for this to be properly adjudicated. I don't support crucifying people without trial.
You're obsessing over a percentage because you're playing a gotcha game, and honestly I just don't have the patience for that nonsense.
I think you're over thinking this. If you don't want to give a percentage, and you don't want to point out what is different about this accusation from any other one... Then it just feels like you don't care about the accusation. You say you have a bullshit detector, but you haven't really brought up what part is bullshit other than the timing.