this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2026
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Image is of a Quds Day march in Bandar Abbas, Iran.


It now seems likely that, very soon, the US and the Zionists will attempt to bomb Iran. Compared to the buildup to the Iraq War, the stated goals of such a move are being kept a little more generalized - some say the point is to overthrow the government for "humanitarian" purposes (others are more honest and want to partition Iran into a dozen powerless statelets). Some people instead say the point is to get rid of the ballistic missile program, which is synonymous with outright surrender, as no matter the deal, bombers would be en route within 10 minutes of the last batch being handed over.

Still others say that the goal is to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, which, as the thread title implies, is now in a bizarre propaganda superposition: it is apparently simultaneously true to the Trump administration that the US obliterated the nuclear facilities and set back Iran's nuclear program years, if not decades, but also that Iran is mere days away from finishing a nuke and a new round of bombing is urgently required. This obviously casts newfound doubts on how effective US weapons even are at penetrating Iran's underground facilities (though it doesn't necessarily mean they didn't breach them, as Iran was almost certainly moving nuclear material out of Fordow and other sites in the days before the Twelve Day War). The sheer quantity of US anti-air defense equipment they're shifting into position also casts doubts on whether Iran's air defense was mostly destroyed during that conflict, as those who assert that the Zionists had total air supremacy over Iran seem to be implying.

I'm not a military guy, and so I have no novel insights on how such a war is likely to go, nor do I feel confident predicting either side's victory. I'm looking at most of the same sources that you're all looking at. Some confidently boast of the total destruction of Iran's air defense within hours, allowing US planes to fly directly over Iranian cities and drop bombs en masse; others cast doubts on whether this will ever occur, and say that the US's limited supply of Tomahawk missiles is the only major firepower they will be able to safely unleash. Some say this war will last mere days before state collapse; others say months, maybe even years. I have no idea.

I do at least feel somewhat bolstered by the fact that Russia and China finally appear to be pouring in meaningful information and matériel to help Iran this time around, though of course, one can still debate whether it's enough. I feel like we are at the culmination of decades of war planning by both the US and Iran, and the result could have deep ramifications indeed.


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Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
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https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
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https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 46 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (3 children)

https://archive.ph/U8hhm

Trump growing frustrated with limits of Iran military options, sources say

President Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with what aides describe as the limits of military leverage against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CBS News under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues.

more

Unlike previous targeted operations, including the recent one removing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power, Mr. Trump has been told that any strike on Tehran's assets would almost certainly not be a singular, decisive blow. Instead, limited strikes could open the door to a wider confrontation — one that risks drawing the United States into a protracted conflict in the Middle East. Axios first reported details of the president's frustrations. President Trump, in a social media post refuted any reports that Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, "is against us going to War with Iran." Caine, he said, "would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won." Mr. Trump said Caine "has not spoken of not doing Iran, or even the fake limited strikes that I have been reading about, he only knows one thing, how to WIN and, if he is told to do so, he will be leading the pack." A senior military official told CBS News that military planners are providing unbiased advice. The White House referred CBS News to the president's social media post. At the heart of the president's impatience is a desire for a forceful action that would reset the diplomatic table. He has pressed advisers for options that would deliver a punishing strike — one substantial enough, in his view, to compel Iranian leaders to return to negotiations under more favorable terms for Washington. But military planners have cautioned that such an outcome cannot be guaranteed. In private meetings, Caine has advised Mr. Trump that a sustained military campaign against Iran could carry significant repercussions, such as retaliation from Tehran and its proxies against U.S. forces and allies, and it could spiral into a drawn-out engagement requiring additional American troops and resources.

Over the weekend, special envoy Steve Witkoff told Lara Trump in an interview on Fox News that Mr. Trump is "curious" about why Iranians "haven't capitulated." "Why, under this sort of pressure, with the amount of sea power, naval power that we have over there, why they haven't come to us and said, 'We profess that we don't want to be — we don't want a weapon. So, here's what we're prepared to do.' And yet, it's hard to sort of get them to that place," Witkoff said.

tito-laugh

In recent weeks, the U.S. has greatly expanded its military posture across the region. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group and its flotilla of warships are expected to position themselves within range of Iranian territory, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and other aircraft squadrons stationed at bases throughout the Persian Gulf. Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems have been reinforced to protect American troops and regional allies from potential retaliation. Pentagon officials say the deployments are defensive and designed to deter escalation, yet the scale and tempo of the build up underscore that any strike in Iran would almost certainly trigger a response whether through missile attacks, maritime harassment in the Strait of Hormuz, or proxy forces operating in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere. The meetings unfolding inside the White House regarding Iran reflect a broader tension between political objectives and military realities. While the president seeks a dramatic show of force to strengthen his hand in negotiations, senior commanders have emphasized that wars rarely unfold according to script and that even carefully calibrated strikes can produce unpredictable consequences. For now, the buildup of U.S. military hardware continues as contingency plans are refined. Whether it culminates in a limited strike or remains a posture of deterrence may depend less on the president's frustration than on Tehran's next move and ultimately on how much risk Washington is prepared to bear.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 24 points 7 hours ago

I think the root of Trump's frustration is that there is no "limited strike option". Any US airstike at this point would have to be accompanied by left of launch defeat of Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and one way attack drones. That is an enormous effort. The US set up to do a "limited strike" in January, and then pulled out/bluffed at the last minute once they realised that they were open to retaliation they could not prevent. The US military buildup since then is an admission that just using cruise missiles for left of launch defeat was insufficient, they need air superiority for whatever's planned, planes and drones in Iranian airspace hunting down launchers.

I think all these concerns about Iranian defence or retaliation, US stockpiles of interceptors, etc are valid of course, but sources in the Trump admin leaking this at the last minute is not going to move the needle much in terms of planning. This would've all been discussed weeks ago before everything started moving.

[–] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 42 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

Trump is upset because he can't just give orders to sovereign nations. How frustrating and sad. His victory in Venezuela might legitimately be the worst thing to happen recently, in terms of emboldening the US imperialists to such a high that they think they can literally order the entire planet at their whims

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 39 points 11 hours ago (3 children)

I don't know, they might be placing misleading news in the media while the decision has already been made. Even fucking Schumer looked a bit worried around ~30 minutes ago when he came from his briefing. He just said something like "this is serious and the administration needs to make its case to the people".

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 41 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago) (1 children)

It could be that these articles are coming out precisely because a decision has been made, and people who were opposed to it are now desperately turning to trying to drum up media attention after they've been shut out of discussions. There's a common tendency to assume that the US deep state must somehow be fully united and single-minded, but no grouping of people past a certain size can truly be such - different factions developing is inevitable (that's why democratic centralism is so important for socialist parties, you need a mechanism to actually manage this conundrum instead of doing the liberal thing of "yeah, we have a guy in the party who just consistently sabotages us on every agenda we try in the legislature. are we going to do something about it? no, what do you think we are, Stalin?")

I gave this example in another comment, but we can reflect back on Nazi planning of Barbarossa, and the fact that logistics officers specifically pointed out that Germany did not have the means to actually sustain a constant offensive over a long period, and would run into trouble if the operation didn't conclude quickly - they were simply ignored with the argument of "it will never come to that, we'll just beat the Soviets in a short campaign!". Now, those guys just shut up and dutifully planned for an operation that they knew could turn into a disaster, but the political and social environment in America is rather different, and seems to lead to lots of relatively high-ranking people who are very media-hungry and love to not shut up and dutifully do their job, but rather start leaking shit (an ironic phrase in this particular moment, heh) left and right upon the slightest obstacle to their agenda.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 4 points 3 hours ago

different factions developing is inevitable (that's why democratic centralism is so important for socialist parties, you need a mechanism to actually manage this conundrum instead of doing the liberal thing of "yeah, we have a guy in the party who just consistently sabotages us on every agenda we try in the legislature. are we going to do something about it? no, what do you think we are, Stalin?")

Doing something in a united way is always better than doing nothing in a divided way.

Or in videogame terms, it's always better for the team to fully commit to a bad plan when 1 person goes in, rather than for others to hold back due to disagreement with it and for the team to split.

Make the decision, then fully commit.

[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 28 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

The US not having the means to accomplish its goals in Iran and it trying anyway are not mutually exclusive

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 24 points 9 hours ago (2 children)

They do have the means to accomplish their goals. My fear is that this admin is crazy enough to actually use them.

nuke

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 13 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

I really don't think nuclear weapons are on the table, even though there's always a non zero chance of nuclear weapons use. The US and Israel have a high degree of conventional military superiority, there's no need for nuclear weapons.

The only way I see the US or Israel nuking Iran is if:

  • Widespread use of chemical or biological weapons delivered by Iranian ballistic missiles.
  • Iran carries out a countervalue attack on Israel that kills thousands.

Both are extremely, extremely unlikely and would be suicidal for Iran to even think about, yet alone carry out. I also highly doubt Iran could or would do either, of even has the capability. It's one thing to make a propaganda poster of Tel Aviv burning to the ground, it's another thing entirely to actually do it and launch thousands of missiles simultaneously.

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 4 points 3 hours ago

Yeah, I'm not arguing that they are absolutely going to use them. I'm worried that we are closer to them being used than basically any point since Reagan. Trump and several of the other psychos around him strike me as the type of people to ask "What's the point of having these if we don't use them?" Reagan didn't realize how bad nuclear war would be until ABC made The Day After and Trump strikes me in very much the same vein of moron. There's a lot of military assets now sitting in the Gulf. My concern is what the US reaction will be the first time an aircraft carrier is sunk since WW2, and this is the closest we have been to that in a long time. I also wouldn't just write off the Iranians as bluffing when they say that they would view this attack as existential, unlike the prior attacks. I think the risk of attack extends beyond just Israel or US assets to other US allies in the region.

[–] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 19 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

Despite the media frenzy around Putin's "nuclear brinkmanship" in 2022-2023, Israel or the US will clearly be the first to use a nuke (well, US already did but you get my point)

The option to use a "tactical" nuke to destroy underground facilities must be on the table

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 9 points 6 hours ago

And they'll of course deny using a nuke as a bunker buster and call it propaganda and western media will run with it being some secret, classified never before heard of bunker buster model that just looks like a nuke on seismographs 1000 miles away.

[–] spectre@hexbear.net 20 points 11 hours ago

I don't really disagree with you but I don't see this headline/article working to their advantage in any way.