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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.


Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.


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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

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Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

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English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 57 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (6 children)

Larry Johnson, former CIA - Russian propagandist.

The US intelligence community is covering its ass here.

One of the comments:

https://sonar21.com/us-intelligence-community-is-covering-its-ass-what-is-really-going-on-with-the-us-war-on-iran/#comment-377013

George Galloway suggests a small yield nuke is on the way from Great Britain to hit the nuclear facility in Iran. I hope he is wrong but he rarely is.

~~# Can anyone confirm for me that Galloway said this? Urgent please.~~ Confirmed.

https://sonar21.com/us-intelligence-community-is-covering-its-ass-what-is-really-going-on-with-the-us-war-on-iran/

::: spoiler article: Let’s start with the big news from a US Intelligence Community leak to the Washington Post… John Hudson and Warren P. Strobel got the story:

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials sayhas “only just begun.”

The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.

The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.

This means the war in Iran is not going well and the US IC is beginning the Washington game of, “Don’t blame me, I warned you not to do it.” I don’t know if Tulsi Gabbard authorized this leak, or if it came from senior analysts from the four principal agencies that were involved in writing this classified report — i.e., the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and the National Security Agency. It is important to understand that this report was produced by the National Intelligence Council, aka the NIC, and it is under the direct control of Tulsi Gabbard. In any event I see this as a clear signal from people involved in producing this report that they will not be the scapegoats when the Iran war turns into a debacle for Donald Trump

I get dozens of emails a day from readers asking questions and offering commentary. I try to read and respond to all. Today I received a series of questions from one of my subscribers (you know who you are). Instead of responding to this person personally, I decided to save time and post for all to see. Hopefully this helps you plow thru the ton of propaganda being spewed by Trump and the Zionists.

1) I’ve read that Tehran is now being hit with gravity bombs. Does the US now have total air space control? What happened to S300-400 and super long range radar able to detect stealth aircraft?

The US does not have air supremacy. The US and Israeli planes are flying close to Iran’s western border and releasing primarily the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile aka JASSAMs, which have a range between 230 and 600 miles depending on the variant (AGM-158A JASSM (baseline): ~370 km [230 miles] and AGM-158B JASSM-ER (Extended Range): ~980 km [610 miles]). I don’t know how many, if any, S300-S400 are deployed in Iran. Iran has reportedly shot down 29 MQ9s and Hermes drones since 28 February, which represents a financial loss of $800 million.

2) What does it imply that Iran has apologized to its neighbors for attacking them?

That is a misreading of what the Iranian President said. Pezeshkian personally apologized to the neighboring countries (Gulf/Arab states) that had been affected by Iranian missile and drone strikes, saying something along the lines of: “I should apologize to the neighboring countries that were attacked by Iran, on my own behalf and on behalf of Iran.” However, Pezeshkian in later remarks emphasized that any de-escalation gesture was undermined by US actions (like Trump’s response framing it as capitulation). As long as the US continues to conduct military operations from the territories of the Gulf/Arab states Iran will (and has) continue to attack the US targets in those countries.

3) What are the targets of the new cluster bomb rockets? Airfields?

The most recent video evidence shows Iran has hit Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv, the oil refinery in Haifa. The clusters from the Iranian rocket are hitting ground targets in Tel Avi and Haifa at a minimum

4) Why can’t Iran stop the constant barrage they are under going? They seem as defenseless as Gaza. 

Iran does not have a perfect air defense system. Worth noting that despite Donald Trump’s threats, the number of US AGM strikes in Iran have declined by 80%. According to Simplicius:

US’s strikes have likewise fallen off from nearly 1,000 on the first day to an estimated 200-300 per day or less since then—and many if not most of those strikes are hitting superficial targets to “fluff up the score”, like a plane boneyard which surely added a couple dozen “points” to the “impressive” strike list

5) is the Iranian Air Force destroyed?

No. The strikes on Iranian combat planes have been largely confined to the Western part of Iran. They still have ample capability in the East. Iran maintains 17 Tactical Fighter Bases (TFBs), and in recent years several new airfields have been constructed in central and eastern Iran, with at least two becoming permanent TFBs — the first established since 1979. One known eastern base is TFB.14 near Mashhad, in the far northeast. To protect assets from preemptive strikes, Iran has moved much of its air power underground. The “Eagle 44” (Oghab 44) airbase, unveiled in 2023, is a massive facility carved into the Zagros Mountains, designed to withstand bunker-buster bombs and housing fighter jets, drones, and command facilities. As of February 28, 2026, reports indicate MiG-29s flying over Tehran and Su-24 strike aircraft being repositioned, suggesting active defensive preparations.

6) is it hard to put airfields out of service? For example send all fuel tanks up in flames. The conclusion I reach is that it requires high precision missiles and Iran doesn’t have enough of those types to expend them on that type of target. Meanwhile Tehran burns and some US radars are gone. 

Blowing up fuel tanks can create a fuel shortage, but it does not disable airfields. Cratering an airfield and putting it permanently out of commission is difficult because the runways can be repaired. You need to stop listening to the US propaganda claims about massive destruction. And how do you know how many high precision missiles Iran has? I don’t know, but what I continue to see is that Iran if firing several waves of precision missile attacks into Tel Aviv and Haifa as well as US bases/ installations throughout the Persian Gulf.

7) The fact that US has been blinded by radar loss hasn’t seemed to help Iran much. Newer Iranian missiles are getting through but that would have been true regardless of those radar stations status.

You answer your own question. Yes, the US loss of the advance radar systems has blinded it and, as a consequence, Iranian missiles are getting through. So what is your real question?

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 6 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

Unless Galloway has hard evidence it's hard to believe him. This guy has talked out his arse on stuff for years.

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 2 points 22 hours ago

Good to hear.

I always knew him as talking on the right side of history, and as a former MP I imagined he would quite connected.

[–] CriticalXipport@hexbear.net 41 points 1 day ago

Pairing this information with the doomsday plane that's otw oh-shit

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 34 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

I found it 15:31

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sgMlRShuv4M

Using the doomsday bomber flying out of England - they are going to drop a tactical nuke on Fordow.

18:00 Russia will take Iran under its nuclear umbrella following this attack.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 33 points 1 day ago (3 children)

18:00 Russia will take Iran under its nuclear umbrella following this attack.

Will it though?

This is wishful thinking. Russia would effectively be joining this war if it did so.

[–] Damarcusart@hexbear.net 24 points 1 day ago (3 children)

As far as I see it, and this is just my not particularly informed opinion, Russia has two options here:

  1. They can do "nothing" (diplomatic condemnations and such), and the US sees it can get away with a "small scale" nuking every now and then, and nukes end up becoming a regular part of the US military arsenal. Russia might even consider this normalisation a good thing, as it enables them to use tactical nukes as well (Though somehow I get a funny feeling the west would hold Russia to a different standard than the US). However, the US being able to use tactical nukes means that they can continue their global terror as they see fit and potentially use nuclear terror to extend the life of empire by a few decades, and being the US, will likely continue to escalate beyond just "tactical" nukes sooner or later. Not doing anything to materially prevent more future nuclear strikes means that Moscow is now counting down the days until the US nukes them, since MAD doctrine will no longer truly apply and the US isn't like to just drop one single (ultimately pointless) nuke and then never again. They couldn't hold back from a second one in WW2, they won't be able to hold back from dropping more now. Russia is 3rd, maybe 4th on the US's list of targets to nuke, so "strongly condemning" this or something probably wouldn't end well for them.

  2. Russia takes a more active stance to defend Iran, putting it under their nuclear umbrella and possibly even getting actively involved in the war. This would be a massive use of their resources and potentially could escalate things with the US into an active conflict between the two, instead of just proxy wars, which in turn, since the US has already dropped one nuclear weapon, means that nukes aren't fully off the table anymore, which means Russia could potentially put themselves into a war that turns into a full on nuclear apocalypse. On the other hand, if they make it clear they will be responding more aggressively towards nuclear strikes, it might get the US to back down, maybe even make Iran sign some "peace deal" or something and withdraw, since the US, if they're already resorting to nukes, have clearly bitten off more than they can chew with Iran and just want a big mission-accomplished moment to save face.

I'm not super confident in my analysis here, so I welcome criticism of it, and all of this hinges on the idea that the US will actually drop a tactical nuclear weapon on Iran, which I'm not really convince they will. I don't know much about Galloway, but I'm guessing he's not some prophet who is never wrong, he's just making predictions based on his own understanding. I just don't see the advantage the US has in dropping a tactical nuke on a site they were already able to bury using conventional weaponry in the 12 day war. Seems like a huge risk for no reward or benefit.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 16 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Counterpoints:

  1. Putin is a cowardly west-loving liberal.

  2. If Russia puts Iran under its nuclear umbrella it is totally fair for the US (or France or the UK) to put Ukraine under its nuclear umbrella. Russia is already making noise about a British/French plot to give Ukraine a nuke, claim it was domestically produced and use it to extract concessions/ceasefire from Russia. If Russia puts Iran under its nuclear umbrella the west will tut and say all is fair then put Ukraine under theirs, smuggle them a nuke, it'll get used on Russia, Ukraine will disavow, Russia will have to decide do they retaliate and test the west then making good on their umbrella either directly against Russia or nuking Iran instead for example if Russia strikes back and the whole thing unravels.

I just do not think it's so simple.

[–] Damarcusart@hexbear.net 13 points 1 day ago

On point 1, Putin is a cowardly west-loving liberal who is forced against his will to defend Russia against western military build up, so I'm not sure if Russia would be ok with the US nuking Iran and then doing nothing, not because they don't want to, but because the west has forced their hand. It would be more of a "the west has fucked up again and created blowback from their actions" rather than "Russia wants to defend other nations and do something decent in the world."

And point 2 is a really good one I hadn't thought of. I know the west would never "play fair" but they probably would be quite eager to give an excuse to end the Ukraine war or else Russia gets nuked. Then maybe even have a "whoopsie the nuke we sent to Ukraine got lost and wound up in the hands of a Paramilitary NGO with no affiliation with Ukraine that launched it at Moscow." And Russia would know this, so they might rush to nuke Ukraine to speed up the war so they can quickly put an end to it before the west can do something like that, but again, that would make the west escalate, which would make Russia escalate and so on until we're all dead.

Regardless of how it plays out, if the US does actually drop a nuke on Iran, it's because they think that MAD isn't actually legitimate anymore, so the question ultimately would be whether Russia understands that or whether they will just sit around pretending they aren't waiting for the US to target them next/third/fourth. There's not really much of a way to deescalate anymore, which is horrifying.

[–] BanMeFromPosting@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Doing nothing would just result in the use of nukes being escalated. It's fordow now, Tehran six months from now and Ukraine is armed with those fallout fatman launchers in about a year.
"Normalising" wouldn't matter either because, as you say, the west holds itself to a different standard.

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 22 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

This war was a high-risk high-reward gambit. If they win, they secure their future against China. If they lose, the US dies - starting with an economic death.

The US is losing.

Trump, as a gambler, might choose another high-risk high-reward gambit of using nuclear weapons to reestablish deterrence against Iran. Maybe they think Iran will yield in the face of nuclear might, but they already have seen the signs that Iran isn't the kind to yield.

Flaw in my argument. The US already has plenty of deterrence with their air superiority and the damage they are inflicting.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 15 points 1 day ago

Trump, as a gambler, might choose another high-risk high-reward gambit of using nuclear weapons to reestablish deterrence against Iran. Maybe they think Iran will yield in the face of nuclear might, but they already have seen the signs that Iran isn't the kind to yield.

There is something to be said for these people have absorbed propaganda that goes like this: Japan would not surrender, they were fanatical, a US invasion to force them to surrender would have cost a million American lives, America dropped two nukes and Japan surrendered, it sobered them up (please ignore the USSR cutting through Japanese forces in China like a red hot knife through butter causing them to panic).

If one believes this narrative as most Americans do as it is the revisionist history repeated a million times over to justify using nukes and to cast America as good guys. If one does then one might be tempted to say "hey it worked back then, why can't it work for us now, Iran is fanatical like Japan, surely nukes will sober them up, spare us a land invasion and Trump comes out a winner of a major unwinnable war going into the November elections with cheap oil for all it's a sure thing".

That's what worries me. That and the US after Ukraine has failed to destroy Russia, after all the anti-colonial stuff that has happened in Africa and so on might want to truly establish itself as a deranged monster. The thinking goes that if they nuke Iran anyone else on their shit list who isn't Russia or China will fall on their knees in fear when they come knocking with the fleet on their doorstep. The premise being even if we can't beat you conventionally we'll just nuke you so you still lose so why not make a deal.

[–] Damarcusart@hexbear.net 19 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Flaw in my argument. The US already has plenty of deterrence with their air superiority and the damage they are inflicting.

Yeah, that's the main reason why I can't see them actually dropping a nuke, they do have the capability to demolish Iran with conventional weapons, just not without consequences and a bloody nose. Nukes would be a pretty awful gambit since they would only increase the consequences and not really achieve any goals. A gambler only bets when they think they can win big, and I don't see them actually winning, even from their perspective, by dropping a nuke. If Israel was utterly destroyed and settlers were fleeing en-masse as the state collapses? Sure, I could see them launching a nuke then, they'd have nothing left to lose. But now? It's way too early for them to escalate to this level. Don't get me wrong, I do think they absolutely would drop a nuke if they thought they could get away with it, they just probably know they can't get away with it at the moment.

Also as an aside, the ignorant liberals I keep tabs on because their takes are always completely wrong all think that Trump is about to start dropping nukes, which is also part of the reason why I'm skeptical of the whole idea.

EDIT: Sorry, I also meant to say that your opening point is a good one, the US is a slowly crumbling empire and crumbling empires always seem to get into big devastating "high risk, high reward" wars as they collapse.

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 21 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

This was Jiang's prediction and former MP Galloway's claim after allegedly speaking to people in ~~China and~~ Russia.

[–] GaveUp@hexbear.net 18 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Would using Iran as a proxy for the war be that bad of a thing for them?

Imagine the money they'd make

[–] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

[–] TheFinalCapitalist@hexbear.net 23 points 1 day ago (1 children)

See its my own fault I read this so late at night and can no longer sleep.

It just fits for the mad king and his court to use nukes

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago

Endless psychic warfare on...

...Hexbear?

Sorry mate.

[–] take_five_moments@hexbear.net 17 points 1 day ago

ah fuck at least i don't have to work tomorrow

[–] oliveoil@hexbear.net 15 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

~~If anyone has time and is doomscrolling, please binge watch Galloway videos and let me know if you have found such a statement.~~