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On point 1, Putin is a cowardly west-loving liberal who is forced against his will to defend Russia against western military build up, so I'm not sure if Russia would be ok with the US nuking Iran and then doing nothing, not because they don't want to, but because the west has forced their hand. It would be more of a "the west has fucked up again and created blowback from their actions" rather than "Russia wants to defend other nations and do something decent in the world."

And point 2 is a really good one I hadn't thought of. I know the west would never "play fair" but they probably would be quite eager to give an excuse to end the Ukraine war or else Russia gets nuked. Then maybe even have a "whoopsie the nuke we sent to Ukraine got lost and wound up in the hands of a Paramilitary NGO with no affiliation with Ukraine that launched it at Moscow." And Russia would know this, so they might rush to nuke Ukraine to speed up the war so they can quickly put an end to it before the west can do something like that, but again, that would make the west escalate, which would make Russia escalate and so on until we're all dead.

Regardless of how it plays out, if the US does actually drop a nuke on Iran, it's because they think that MAD isn't actually legitimate anymore, so the question ultimately would be whether Russia understands that or whether they will just sit around pretending they aren't waiting for the US to target them next/third/fourth. There's not really much of a way to deescalate anymore, which is horrifying.

Trump, as a gambler, might choose another high-risk high-reward gambit of using nuclear weapons to reestablish deterrence against Iran. Maybe they think Iran will yield in the face of nuclear might, but they already have seen the signs that Iran isn't the kind to yield.

There is something to be said for these people have absorbed propaganda that goes like this: Japan would not surrender, they were fanatical, a US invasion to force them to surrender would have cost a million American lives, America dropped two nukes and Japan surrendered, it sobered them up (please ignore the USSR cutting through Japanese forces in China like a red hot knife through butter causing them to panic).

If one believes this narrative as most Americans do as it is the revisionist history repeated a million times over to justify using nukes and to cast America as good guys. If one does then one might be tempted to say "hey it worked back then, why can't it work for us now, Iran is fanatical like Japan, surely nukes will sober them up, spare us a land invasion and Trump comes out a winner of a major unwinnable war going into the November elections with cheap oil for all it's a sure thing".

That's what worries me. That and the US after Ukraine has failed to destroy Russia, after all the anti-colonial stuff that has happened in Africa and so on might want to truly establish itself as a deranged monster. The thinking goes that if they nuke Iran anyone else on their shit list who isn't Russia or China will fall on their knees in fear when they come knocking with the fleet on their doorstep. The premise being even if we can't beat you conventionally we'll just nuke you so you still lose so why not make a deal.

Flaw in my argument. The US already has plenty of deterrence with their air superiority and the damage they are inflicting.

Yeah, that's the main reason why I can't see them actually dropping a nuke, they do have the capability to demolish Iran with conventional weapons, just not without consequences and a bloody nose. Nukes would be a pretty awful gambit since they would only increase the consequences and not really achieve any goals. A gambler only bets when they think they can win big, and I don't see them actually winning, even from their perspective, by dropping a nuke. If Israel was utterly destroyed and settlers were fleeing en-masse as the state collapses? Sure, I could see them launching a nuke then, they'd have nothing left to lose. But now? It's way too early for them to escalate to this level. Don't get me wrong, I do think they absolutely would drop a nuke if they thought they could get away with it, they just probably know they can't get away with it at the moment.

Also as an aside, the ignorant liberals I keep tabs on because their takes are always completely wrong all think that Trump is about to start dropping nukes, which is also part of the reason why I'm skeptical of the whole idea.

EDIT: Sorry, I also meant to say that your opening point is a good one, the US is a slowly crumbling empire and crumbling empires always seem to get into big devastating "high risk, high reward" wars as they collapse.