Slop.

People don't believe things could get worse because they're so materially strained as-is that they can't afford for it to get worse. "Society didn't collapse with COVID", I say smugly as my cost of living has increased 50%~ while my wage has remained stagnant and the idea of home ownership has been all but erased.

The political economy and material fallout of this war is basically what we were expecting from peak oil. That's still coming if the war's crisis ends tomorrow. It's coming in terms of material limits of production and the electrification/renewable energy transition. If I overreact to this crisis in the ways I adjust my life for it, doubling down on being a cyclist and degrowth neo-luddite politics, awesome. Those are the same shifts I was making before the war and I'm more resilient when those systems get worse after it.

I thought COVID's supply chain shocks would impact cars more, transitioned to biking to insulate myself from those shocks, and the past 6 years of economic chaos in car markets hasn't impacted me. I can dodge the primary consumer impact of this crisis with money to spare for the secondary impacts. Now I know ebikes pretty well and am comfortable riding the ideal bike for my needs that I was able to buy before the trade war. I've had time to gently downsize the rest of my life to fit around cycling, something that's otherwise a disruptive change with a whole other set of rules. I saved so much mileage on my car as repairs, fuel, and replacements have only gone up in price during a worse consumer credit market. If I need to drive my car when fuel costs $10/gal, I still have a near-full tank from when it was $2.50/gal. Assuming the worst allowed me to handle anything up to the worst, and things will get worse even if this war ends three weeks ago.