I think the problem here is people are confusing the immediate gas price fluctuations for the long term effects. So it’s easy to view it as similar to a temporary price spike like with a hurricane.

Problem is, the current price spikes aren’t the long term crisis, that’s the oil industry getting out in front of that crisis. Cushion the profits now. The knock on effects will hit later on this year when it extends to the ag industry, and shipping costs go through the roof because there isn’t enough oil to go around for all the cargo boats out there.

[–] happybadger@hexbear.net 28 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It's petroleum distillation products that I'm excited for. Every commercial/industrial lubricant I can think of is petroleum-based or comes from some kind of supply chain that is. Every modern house seems to be full of plastic and clad in vinyl siding, and I couldn't afford those houses before the war started because the cost of construction and supply shortages made the worst ones $400k+. I don't know how many different petroleum products go into the operation and maintenance of a truck/train/plane/ship, but more than just the specialised fuels. The kind of economic crisis I hate most is one where the effects are so chaotic that it's like firing buckshot through the real economy. Everything in my apartment uses some petroleum product in its production or distribution.

[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I couldn't afford those houses before the war started because the cost of construction and supply shortages made the worst ones $400k+.

A whole lot of this just comes down to how inflated American real estate is, especially in large urban areas. The same house can sell for $500k or more in a HCOL area and $200k in a LCOL area.

[–] happybadger@hexbear.net 2 points 1 day ago

At least here the influx of work-from-home digital nomads in 2020 was the thing that practically doubled housing prices overnight. They were still inflated over the national average in 2018, but not catastrophically so.

[–] happybadger@hexbear.net 34 points 1 day ago (2 children)

People don't believe things could get worse because they're so materially strained as-is that they can't afford for it to get worse. "Society didn't collapse with COVID", I say smugly as my cost of living has increased 50%~ while my wage has remained stagnant and the idea of home ownership has been all but erased.

The political economy and material fallout of this war is basically what we were expecting from peak oil. That's still coming if the war's crisis ends tomorrow. It's coming in terms of material limits of production and the electrification/renewable energy transition. If I overreact to this crisis in the ways I adjust my life for it, doubling down on being a cyclist and degrowth neo-luddite politics, awesome. Those are the same shifts I was making before the war and I'm more resilient when those systems get worse after it.

I thought COVID's supply chain shocks would impact cars more, transitioned to biking to insulate myself from those shocks, and the past 6 years of economic chaos in car markets hasn't impacted me. I can dodge the primary consumer impact of this crisis with money to spare for the secondary impacts. Now I know ebikes pretty well and am comfortable riding the ideal bike for my needs that I was able to buy before the trade war. I've had time to gently downsize the rest of my life to fit around cycling, something that's otherwise a disruptive change with a whole other set of rules. I saved so much mileage on my car as repairs, fuel, and replacements have only gone up in price during a worse consumer credit market. If I need to drive my car when fuel costs $10/gal, I still have a near-full tank from when it was $2.50/gal. Assuming the worst allowed me to handle anything up to the worst, and things will get worse even if this war ends three weeks ago.

[–] Le_Wokisme@hexbear.net 20 points 1 day ago (1 children)

If I need to drive my car when fuel costs $10/gal, I still have a near-full tank from when it was $2.50/gal.

might need some stabalizer

[–] happybadger@hexbear.net 18 points 1 day ago

The battery went dead from not using it too long. After that I started doing weekly starts to keep it running and try to plan for a way to use a tank of fuel within 6 months so that doesn't go bad.

[–] Athena5898@hexbear.net 12 points 1 day ago

I got a ebike and then my disabilities have gotten worse. It's pissing me off tbh. It wouldn't be so bad if we didn't live in the mountains in America Appalachia.

We have a hybrid and there is a shitty bus system (doesn't even run on weekends) but fuck me I want to bike dammit. I hope to build back to it.

[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

They're not saying it's going to be fine, they're saying that even when it's bad you have to keep living your life. Don't let it consume you. Which is good advice

[–] WokePalpatine@hexbear.net 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

They're are in fact saying everything will be fine because they think COVID went fine.

[–] WokePalpatine@hexbear.net 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

'Keep going to your job" implies there will still be jobs. Etc.

[–] AF_R@hexbear.net 8 points 1 day ago

The comments are overwhelmingly supportive of anti-COVID measures. There is no wave of support in that post saying COVID went fine. They are clearly stating that essential workers were abused and only the privileged got to quarantine.

I’m not sure why you’re deliberately misleading people here.

“Keep going to your job” and you asserting that there are no jobs are not ideas that are in conflict. Why are you intentionally misconstruing the message that, no, you shouldn’t quit your previously limited job and kill your landlord and lose all agency and income because your boss won’t wear a mask? How does there being no jobs contradict the point of keeping your job and stability instead of throwing it away?

Yes, Covid is bad. We get it. We get the data that shows it’s a horrific gateway to disability and disease. Nobody is disputing the data. But so is homelessness. Thus, the saying, what are you going to do, quit and kill your landlord?

“Hold a job” isn’t some condemnation of people who get laid off, or are having a tough time in the market. It’s to counter the online left narrative that yes, you should definitely kill your boss and search for the mythical unicorn job that totally will pay you $200k for crafting artisanal leftist smoothies.

Encouraging people to do this is equivalent to promoting self-harm. I’ve seen too many accounts just on Hexbear of people who fall into the echo chamber you are encouraging, ruining their lives and making a post going “well I guess I’m homeless now.”

So, if you’re not going to kill your boss and execute your landlord and personally start the communist revolution, you need to live first. That’s what this is about. It doesn’t have to be 24/7 shit.

[–] GrouchyGrouse@hexbear.net 9 points 1 day ago

Almost every institution is interested in downplaying the risks. They are terrified of the consequences escaping control.

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