this post was submitted on 23 Mar 2026
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I think the problem here is people are confusing the immediate gas price fluctuations for the long term effects. So it’s easy to view it as similar to a temporary price spike like with a hurricane.
Problem is, the current price spikes aren’t the long term crisis, that’s the oil industry getting out in front of that crisis. Cushion the profits now. The knock on effects will hit later on this year when it extends to the ag industry, and shipping costs go through the roof because there isn’t enough oil to go around for all the cargo boats out there.
It's petroleum distillation products that I'm excited for. Every commercial/industrial lubricant I can think of is petroleum-based or comes from some kind of supply chain that is. Every modern house seems to be full of plastic and clad in vinyl siding, and I couldn't afford those houses before the war started because the cost of construction and supply shortages made the worst ones $400k+. I don't know how many different petroleum products go into the operation and maintenance of a truck/train/plane/ship, but more than just the specialised fuels. The kind of economic crisis I hate most is one where the effects are so chaotic that it's like firing buckshot through the real economy. Everything in my apartment uses some petroleum product in its production or distribution.
A whole lot of this just comes down to how inflated American real estate is, especially in large urban areas. The same house can sell for $500k or more in a HCOL area and $200k in a LCOL area.
At least here the influx of work-from-home digital nomads in 2020 was the thing that practically doubled housing prices overnight. They were still inflated over the national average in 2018, but not catastrophically so.