askchapo

Right now your consumer usage is subsidised by venture capital funding, especially from Gulf States parking oil money. If they don't offer you more than the cost of token generation for free or near-free, you have plenty of competing models that do the same thing for free. If none of them are free, there are plenty of locally-run models that are. The AI bubble popping is when the investor funds dry up and the cost of token generation is passed onto consumers. It will try to follow the same enshittification process that streaming services have, but with a less valuable product. Trying to pass those costs onto businesses that are using AI to cut costs is so contradictory that the bottom falls out for the entire market.

Copilot won't leave your computer, it will just become like Office. I remember using Word and Excel for free but now they expect a subscription that's almost as obscene as Adobe's. Basic functionality of your computer will be paywalled to make up for the costs these companies sunk into AI bullshit, during the depression they caused where nobody can afford their products.

It means copilot will stay in your computer but do even worse, and cost your company 3 times as much.

It means Copilot will be abandoned by Microsoft but will still be on every PC and be used as a backdoor for easy hacking.

Copilot will never go away. The only way you can get that thing off your computer is by removing Windows. The AI bubble is gonna burst but Microsoft is still gonna have LLMs baked into their OS.

Much of this is just speculation, but still…

What you should understand is that the technology isn’t going to go away. Chatbots generally won’t be going away. What we’ll likely see is consolidation and bailouts. In a perfect world, the companies would just go under, but governments have shown a total willingness to buy into the technology.

All a bubble really is, is a market or industry that is overvalued due to speculation. What we will likely see is the biggest companies swallowing up the smaller ones and AI technology becoming some kind of software-as-a-service offered by a handful of companies. Microsoft, Google, OpenAI… We can’t know which companies, and that’s part of what is keeping this bubble going. I know I’m oversimplifying, but we’re not talking about what caused the bubble, just what will happen when it pops. The shoehorning won’t stop, but it will become less obnoxious. The tech will find its place to live, and in some of those places, it won’t seem that bad. I’d guess in the form of an AI agent assistant.

I think Microsoft’s dream model is actually the future that we’re looking at. That is, some kind of AI-integrated OS or web browser (or both) that is feeding you information as filtered through the AI. Meaning all information you get from the internet would be fed to you, not directly from the host source, but from whatever company runs your AI OS or browser. That’s a little theoretical right now, granted, but the dream seems to be that for these companies.

AI integration is garbage, but at the front end, your average user isn’t going to know that. I suspect that’s how they wanted it. We are seeing the foundations of a redesign of the internet and the digital age in real time. It’s not just companies wanting to get a return on value from these LLMs. It’s also the gamble that when the various competitors collapse, they’ll be able to swoop in, grab the competing tech for pennies, and implement it themselves.

When the bubble pops, we will likely see huge collapses in the tech sector as all the companies that invested in it directly get swallowed up. Something something too big to fail. Some of those sectors will get bailed out, and the US will likely suffer a massive depression from the various costs. There is concern about the potential for AI being used to create a software and hardware-as-a-service model, and I can see that being something that gets pushed. Because then, the data center infrastructure that is getting built serves a new purpose.

So it’s GOING to pop, but "deflate" might be more accurate. I know that most of us don’t want it and that it’s pretty hard to see right now, but all the pieces of the puzzle are present or being built.

I don’t actually see much changing on the hardware side. Computer components manufacturers have all been shifting to producing for AI data centers. So anyway, let me make bullet points of my thoughts because all this is messy.

• AI doesn’t go away; it becomes the new front end of the internet and home computing.
• AI companies consolidate and maybe specialize into various parts of the market (think Google offering web browsing, and Windows offering home computing).
• Home computing will become virtualized, with the home computer becoming something of an access point for a rented VM, which meets their needs based on what they pay for. We’ve seen this fail with cloud gaming, but only because there are still other options for access to things like games and software.
• Access to information is controlled and obfuscated as websites and hosting become more expensive. (This is already happening now, but with the consumer market shrinking for computer parts, the only viable option may be for users to buy into this model.)

There’s more, but really, that’s my big picture, and why pretty much everyone ignores the general public's hate for it. They don't see it as a fun new fade, they see it as an innovation that his going to take over the world. as much as I hate it I think they're right, If only because at the same time that all of this is happening we are seeing industry captures through legislation and corruption.

The bubble popping is going to hurt consumer markets not commerical ones and all the tech they've developed and hardware they've developed will be used to help absorb costs and take over those markets which the bubble itself destroyed. We'll all suffer for it.

It's going to become a new Bonzi Buddy, but it's going to be embedded into the kernel.

It won't be as clean and permanent as the NFT crash was. Hard to say for sure if you'll get the specific wins you're looking for.

The real estate bubble popped. Houses are still here.

The dotcom bubble popped. The internet is still here.

The AI bubble might pop - but those datacenters will get put to use. (Probably state-sponsored surveillance and analysis.)