I was curious about this article so I did some digging. I learned a lot about gas imports and I'd like to share it with you.
First, this article and its numbers are factually correct. However, it lacks context ant thus paints a picture that's different from reality.
About gas imports in general:
-
Natural gas is imported in two ways: in its natural gaseous form by gas pipelines and in liquid form (LNG = liquified natural gas) by LNG ships.
-
LNG is much denser than the gas in its natural state, but also much more difficult to make. The natural gas needs to be chilled to below -161 Β°C (-258 Β°F) to become liquid. It is then transported by LNG ships. At its destination, it needs to be regasified to become natural gas again.
-
As import of natural gas via pipelines is much easier, import contracts tend to be short(er)-term. The much more complicated process of making and transporting LNG leads to long(er)-term import contracts to allow economic viability and stability for all involved parties.
About gas imports into the EU from Russia:
- Since Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022, the total amount of EU gas imports (natural gas via pipelines + LNG transported via ships and then regassified) from Russia has decreased significantly. Here are the imported amounts from Russia per year (in billion cubic meters = bcm):
- 2019: 203 bcm (186 bcm pipeline gas, 17 bcm LNG)
- 2020: 162 bcm (148 bcm pipeline gas, 14 bcm LNG)
- 2021: 157 bcm (144 bcm pipeline gas, 13 bcm LNG)
- 2022: 83 bcm (65 bcm pipeline gas, 18 bcm LNG)
- 2023: 46 bcm (27 bcm pipeline gas, 19 bcm LNG)
- 2024: 54 bcm (33 bcm pipeline gas, 21 bcm LNG)
- 2025: 38 bcm (18 bcm pipeline gas, 20 bcm LNG)
- 2026 (first half): 22 bcm (9 bcm pipeline gas, 13 bcm LNG)
- The Yamal facility in Russia is owned by different parties, thus financial interests are diverse:
- 50.1% belong to the Russian natural gas producer Novatek
- 20% belong to the French company Total Energies
- 20% belong to the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
- 9.9% belong to the Chinese 'Silk Road' fund.
- The EU put sanctions on importing gas from Russia. However, contracts for gas imports are legal agreements with repercussions if contracts are breached. Thus, abrupt total stop of importing gas in whichever form would lead to enormous penalty payments for breach of contract. Therefore, the EU put transitional periods in place so long-term contracts can be fulfilled while other sources for gas can be established.
- Before 2022, out of 100% of imported Russian gas more than 90% came in its natural form via pipelines, so less than 10% came as LNG. As pipeline gas contracts are short(er)-term and also made up the majority of imports, the EU went to cut those first. In fact, out of 4 natural gas pipelines from Russia to the EU (Nordstream, Turkstream, Ukraine Transit and Yamal natural gas), only Turkstream still delivers to Europe. The long(er)-term LNG contracts are still in place, thus LNG imports remained stable over the years, yet ending on January 1, 2027 as per the article.
So yes, the article states facts. That said, the total amount of gas imports from Russia has gone down by roughly 75% when comparing the pre-war to the post-war period, and it will decline further when the LNG import ban becomes effective on Jan 1, 2027. As per the article, pipeline imports from Russia are banned from September 2027. So it's not like the EU keeps happily buying Russian gas in droves as if nothing happened. Imports have already been reduced massively and will seize in 2027. Is this ideal? No. But this is the economic reality.
The article:
While factually correct, I find the article misleading when it states that "(...) Russian pipeline gas [imports] increased 7% year-on-year in January to May 2026, while Russian LNG imports rose by 11%, (...)". Yes, this is factually true as far as I can confirm it with the data I have. In Q1+Q2 2025, 8.3 bcm of pipeline gas were imported, in Q1+Q2 2026, 8.7 bcm were imported via pipeline. In in the same quarters of 2024 it was 15.8 bcm, 2023 it was 11.3 bcm, 2022 it was 48.4 bcm and so on. Before the war it was between 71 bcm and 94 bcm. In my opinion, picking these specific periods in 2025 and 2026 and stating percentages instead of total amounts is, while factually correct, questionable.
In a similar fashion, yes, LNG imports also have risen, even by more than 11% according to my data. The gas storage is quite low in the EU right now (lower than in the last 4 years at this time of year) and LNG shipments from the middle east are questionable right now due to the situation at the Strait of Hormuz. With LNG imports from Russia being banned by the end of this year, the EU countries will naturally ramp up their LNG imports, also from Russia, and not only because contracts still need to be fulfilled. Thus, yes, current LNG import from Russia is at a "record level", but pipeline gas import has decreased massively in the last years, thus overall gas imports from Russia are down. Since LNG imports always only made up less than 10% of the total gas imports from Russia, a "record level of LNG" is still a low overall amount of gas.
I recommend to read this article, it was my data source. It has interactive diagrams, also all data can be downloaded as XLSX/CSV files for further analysis. Very interesting insight.
