politics

he certainly isn't going to ride in on a populist wave but I'm not convinced he'll lose either. People not knowing or caring about his pitiful policies is a double edged sword, they don't give a shit enough to know that his policies are terrible.

Not doing anything good is still better to most people than actively making things worse (not that biden isn't doing that, but it doesn't get covered like it did under trump), and frankly there's gotta be a contingent that just doesn't want to hear the media go back to full on trump derangement syndrome round-the-clock coverage.

I mean that's all true, but only American leftists care about that stuff, the vast plurality of the population are totally disengaged from politics and won't vote anyway, so none of the facts you mentioned matter to them

The actual freaks who vote like the fact Biden is a fascist, of course they don't use that word but to them Biden is "tough on crime", "tough on the ~~Arabs/muslims~~ terrorists", "doesn't take shit from the Kremlin Republicans"

And the the economy is doing good (line is up and housing is expensive), "the New York Times said so"

Old dude is gonna win it outright, it's 2004

Nah. Biden's numbers have returned to pre Oct 7 levels. The corporate donors and the new suburban members of Biden's coalition don't care about genocide; his defense of Israeli terror probably redounds to his benefit. The economy is working for the people the economy is supposed to work for, inflation has slowed, and the fed will ease rates in the coming year, spurring sentiment and allowing young people into homes. The student loan policy has discharged billions, and income driven repayment frees kids from snowballing debt. Labor participation is up, labor is crushing w public polling, labor is winning concessions. No one remembers about Biden and the railroad, but they will see him again and again in ad spots standing w the auto workers. He is hawkish on the border, which dampens one of the few possible salient conservative talking points (his position is also quite popular). Bidens serious mistake was arguably, if one squinted, his most progressive -- fleeing Afghanistan.

Trump has a hard ceiling and little room to grow. His refusal to accept the 2020 results, along with self destructive culture war overreach, led Republicans to the worst midterm showing in modern history. Both remain albatrosses on the party's neck. Referenda on abortion restrictions have lost literally everywhere, and the issue will mobilize otherwise unenthusiastic dems in November. Trump, avoiding news cycles thanks anemic Republican challengers and geopolitical drama, will again become the center of national attention, and remind the electorate of how tired it is of him. He is looking at serious criminal cases, which are seen as legitimate (at least outside of the New York state one), and which touch on serious issues of constitutional order and democratic values. The liberal media is staunchly against him, and will use their networks to underscore Trump as existential threat. He very well could be jailed, reducing enthusiasm among sober conservatives.

Dems have won the last three election cycles. Hillary is not on the menu, Trump is a known quantity and is deeply disliked, and the current legal cases, unlike the Mueller matter, are compelling and understandable and are being prosecuted and undertaken by adversarial institutions. Unless the economy tanks (not impossible surely, given some global shock) this is going to be a slim but comfortable Dem W.

Everything else is wishcasting, hoping you can dunk on libs for not listening, but there will be no karma at the ballot box; the libs never needed you.