this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2026
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I was looking at the production numbers for stuff like thaad missiles and tomahawks. They're all in the dozens annually and seemingly have been for ages.

Given the staggering numbers these are used in, and how it seems like the way the usa fights wars now is to launch stupid amounts at people, like multiple years worth in a day. What happens when they can't? How close are they to that, interceptors are low atm but given there are hilarious announcements like: https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/over_1000_tomahawks_1900_aim_120s_500_sm_6s_per_year_us_moves_to_multiply_missile_production-17408.html I assume many offensive rockets are running low.

Is that level of production feasible? I know the usa has a surprising industrial base but a 20x increase in even one armament seems ambitious, do they have the factories mothballed? The skilled workers? The raw materials?

If they don't is there any inkling of what their military people intend to do when they can't realistically threaten to park a fleet off your coast and level your cities?

I'm not a military nerd, just a random person if I'm missing sometimes obvious or said sometimes funny.

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[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 1 points 1 hour ago

I wouldn't be surprised if they switched to a hyper-aggressive, Korean War-style approach if their defensive weapons ran out.

[–] deforestgump@hexbear.net 14 points 11 hours ago

Tell the American taxpayer we are winning the war. Then place an order for more.

[–] D61@hexbear.net 16 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

No... no its not.

There definitely isn't enough time to build out the facilities to ramp up production. These aren't fin stabilized bombs. These are very technically advanced doohickies and require lots of specialized equipment, personnel, and facilities to manufacture.

Most of these munitions are going to require a network of radar installations to have any shot of functioning, everything from early warning to target acquisition. Having more munitions but them being blind... is a bit of a problem.

As munitions get low, the launchers are going to start showing signs of wear and tear, being damaged in attacks, or being outright destroyed. So having more fancy missiles stops being useful. Maybe its easier to build more launchers than the missiles but if the USA is balking at having more manufacturing capacity for the missiles why wouldn't this also apply to the launchers.

All the while, somebody has got to figure out how to get all the stuff from the USA or Europe to the Western Asia area to be installed in the countries who are being attacked by Iran and other resistance groups. With Iran and those other resistance groups being pretty open about why these USA aligned countries are being attacked, "Stop working with the USA/Israel, who are attacking us, and we will leave you alone." At some point, the math is going to work out for some countries where "Hey, the USA has already failed to protect us once when they had all sorts of fancy radar installations, launchers and munitions for the launchers... now that they are rushing to rebuild the radar sites, launchers and munitions... why not take those resistance groups up on their offer of "we'll stop the attacks when you stop letting the USA/Israel do {insert thing here} on your country's soil?"

Im eating all the guns and ammo and missilea mmmm yim yumny

[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 36 points 16 hours ago (4 children)

I mean the long and short of it is we have no idea. We think the interceptors are running out. Movements of THAAD batteries from South Korea to West Asia seem to imply that. B52s strapped with cruise missiles are replacing a lot of Tomahawk strikes, which again implies they're running out of those missiles. It seems Iran launches fewer drones and missiles, but more get through, again implying lack of interceptors. But we really don't know what their stockpiles are, the fog of war is thick.

As for manufacturing, it's functionally impossible to scale up manufacturing in the United States in a way that would make any difference for this current war. It is possible that they do so after, realising it is a fool's errand to fight China without having any real weapons manufacturing base, especially when they depleted their stockpiles in this farcical "special military operation," but that would require rejecting the God of Short Term Profit. Unlikely that the current rulers of the USAmerican Empire would make such a choice.

Thr long term effects of this is worldwide rearmament. Users like @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net have been predicting this for a long while, and I think after this war it's even more likely. Countries within the empire are seeing the United States cannot protect them. They do not have the arms nor the will to do so. The obvious answer is you need to develop your own arms industry, your own defensive platforms, your own missiles, etc. The empire is always gonna prioritise Israel (look at Ukraine rn, or the Gulf, both of which, despite being more "important," are getting no arms).

[–] Sam@hexbear.net 14 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

Users like @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net have been predicting this for a long while

Gone when we needed them most, RIP. Would have loved to read a 5 paragraph effort post on the 15th 5 year plan outline that just came out.

[–] MLRL_Commie@hexbear.net 7 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (2 children)

What happened to xiaohongshu?

[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 12 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

XHS just logs off for long stretches sometimes

[–] SkingradGuard@hexbear.net 3 points 8 hours ago

Gets sick of our liberalism smh

[–] TreadOnMe@hexbear.net 7 points 10 hours ago

Something happened, so the head of the 'Nothing ever happens' gang has gone into hiding.

[–] iByteABit@hexbear.net 15 points 14 hours ago (5 children)

The empire is always gonna prioritise Israel (look at Ukraine rn, or the Gulf, both of which, despite being more "important," are getting no arms).

Why do they put so much weight on Israel though? I know their sole existence is being the USA's feral dog in the Middle East so they are always a good bet for the USA, but don't Gulf states also matter a lot to them since they're already puppet states that unlike Israel also have a ton of oil to provide them?

Ideally for the USA they would spread power to Israel and also a number of their protectorates in the area so there isn't a single point of failure and is also easier for the US to surround Iran.

I suppose the reason is that they lack the resources to do this efficiently so they fully commit to keeping Israel powerful instead.

[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 17 points 12 hours ago

It's because the folks running the empire don't understand how the empire works anymore. Israeli propaganda is very very very good, as is American propaganda about the importance of Israel. Combine this with lack of understanding of how power actually flows, white supremacy (Israelis are definitely more "white" than Arabs), and apocalyptic Christian shit and boom you get this insane focus on Israel at the expense of the far more important vassal states in the Gulf that actually matter economically.

[–] MLRL_Commie@hexbear.net 9 points 11 hours ago

I think its something to do with the limitations of reach towards periphery from imperial core. Israel is utilized as an extension of the imperial core, and has been designed for that role, in order to more effectively enact fascistic expropriation through the periphery from the rest of the global south. Seemingly, distance is important

[–] supafuzz@hexbear.net 20 points 14 hours ago

Book of Revelation doesn't say nothin' about the gulf states

[–] miz@hexbear.net 16 points 13 hours ago
[–] LeeeroooyJeeenkiiins@hexbear.net 9 points 12 hours ago

Yeah i'm pretty sure it's because of all the epstein shit

[–] LeeeroooyJeeenkiiins@hexbear.net 7 points 12 hours ago

The empire is always gonna prioritise Israel (look at Ukraine rn, or the Gulf, both of which, despite being more "important," are getting no arms).

Just normal vassal treatment here, sacrificing every other vassal for them

[–] insurgentrat@hexbear.net 14 points 15 hours ago (2 children)

I don't mean just this war, in general the usa has been using bombs at rates that it seems are above production for 25 years. The state of foreverwar they've been in seems unsustainable to say the least.

Am I just wildly underestimating the arms manufacturing power?

[–] WhatDoYouMeanPodcast@hexbear.net 12 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

What the fuck? It's a trillion dollar government program. Is it just so rotten with corruption that you can't keep it stocked? I heard there was just in time production of supplies even there? I guess I just imagined it an oasis in the desert. There are trillion dollar companies, but there's a trillion in liquid money going to a concentrated number of people. If a trillion dollars doesn't buy you forever war then a dollar ain't what it used to be

[–] Lussy@hexbear.net 13 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

Is it just so rotten with corruption that you can't keep it stocked?

Yes.

Remember when Jon Stewart went viral for that time he was chewing into some bureaucrat about the military not being able to pass an audit? Seems like the bureaucrat should be the one interested in making sure that money is well spent.

It seems like it would serve bourgeoisie interests to have a good war machine especially if you intend to use it to do violent extraction. Wanting to profit from corruption and also profit from violent extraction seems removed a contradiction that is currently hightening. Has anyone looked into this? Thank you for your attention on this matter

[–] ZWQbpkzl@hexbear.net 8 points 14 hours ago (2 children)

in general the usa has been using bombs at rates that it seems are above production for 25 years

That doesn't add up. I think you're confusing JDAMs and hellfires for patriots and THAADs here.

[–] insurgentrat@hexbear.net 1 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 16 minutes ago)

In Iraq they used 800 tomahawks, that's around 16 years production. a few hundred in Syria/against the houthies etc. A bunch elsewhere.

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 5 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago) (1 children)

No it does, in one of the articles tervell posted on the Ukraine war, they said the botleneck was explosives production. Then someone argued that the lack of artillery production didn't matter because the us uses some acronym bombs that are better(they are not, canon artillery delivers orders of magnitude more volume), without addressing that the botleneck was chemical precursors to explosives, and that acronym bombs are presumably also made of explosives.

[–] ZWQbpkzl@hexbear.net 1 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

Chemical shortages explains why the US hasn't scaled up artillery production. That shortage can be explained by the US's shift to expensive "smart bombs" which are allegedly more efficient with their explosives. You can't conclude from that the US has been under producing smart bombs for 25 years.

[–] Formerlyfarman@hexbear.net 1 points 7 hours ago

It's an issue of volume. The explosives, can be made into bombs, artillery, missiles, etc, but the volume of whatever is made is limited. They can't produce enough volume of whatever is the end product. The claim that bombs are better than a trusty cannon, is a way to justify the lack of production. But there is a still a lack of production, due to problems in the chemical industry.