Linux

The fact that I'm having more and more discussions with non tech people about what even Linux is, that they heard of GrapheneOS or /e/OS, makes me thing that yes, it's possible.

What also makes it potentially possible is that Microsoft is doing like NVIDIA alienating gamers. They are "just" gigantic corporations which only go where there is more money. There is no ideology except capturing whatever drives profit up for the next quarter. They currently see AI data center as they place to earn more so they are giving up on the rest.

Going with a definite maybe 🤔

Twenty years ago, we were speculating whether open source browsers would survive or catch on.

Now there aren't any closed source browsers left.

Vendors will find other forms of lock in, anyway, of course.

yes, fuck windows. Shitty fedware destined for rue dustbin of history. Execute bill gates.

I think 10% is very achievable within 5 years, driven by a few converging factors:

1. Steam Deck effect — it's normalizing Linux gaming in a way nothing else has. People who game on Deck start wondering "why not on my desktop too?"
2. Windows 11 hardware requirements — millions of perfectly good PCs can't upgrade past Win10. When support ends, Linux is the obvious path for those machines
3. Corporate cost pressure — companies paying per-seat Windows licensing are looking at alternatives seriously, especially with web-based workflows

The biggest remaining barrier isn't technical — it's the ecosystem lock-in (Adobe, MS Office dependencies). But even that's eroding with web apps replacing native ones.

Microslop is doing everything to promote Linux. So yes, I think 10% is possible.

If you look at OS on steam its about 3%, but filtered for English, its 7% in that market.

Its kinda on its way there already in some markets.

Ever is an extremely long time.

Yes. Not because Linux PCs become so much more common, but because Windows PCs become much less common.

More and more people (normies) don't own a desktop and only use tablets or phones. As the percentage of normies who own a desktop decreases, it will become more of just a nerd thing to have an actual desktop PC ... and those kinds of people are much more likely to run Linux.

Seeing as its the year of the Linux desktop, yes

I personally feel pretty confident we're gonna hit 10% in the coming years. 20% could be doable but i feel like it might take a lot longer to get there. But depending on how badly microslop keeps fucking up, who knows lol.

Yes, as long as Windows will keep getting worse.

Yes. It's already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years. There are several major external factors at play: Valve helping to push gaming on Linux, the continued and increasingly big enshittification of Windows, and the current deranged US regime (resulting in less trust and less users of US-company-produced proprietary operating systems). Remember that Linux or the open source BSD variants are the only (usable/practical) operating systems you can use if you want to achieve digital sovereignty. Plus, it's also getting even better over time by itself of course (that's the internal factor).

For the education sector and software developer sector these numbers are already met and well exceeded. For the consumer desktop, yes, I think so. I think some big company other than Valve and Google will sell a Linux desktop machine, be it x86 or ARM. When most of the stuff consumers use is through the browser, OEMs clinging to Windows is not going to last forever.

To my mind, Linux used to be a niche alternative to Windows, but it's grown a lot and I forsee it becoming the default alternative to MacOS. I think Windows is done as a platform in the short-medium term.

I see China going way beyond those numbers, US not so much. Lenovo and ASUS are already front loading Linux, so if more makers follow suit, who knows.

Yes I do, it seems to me Linux is beginning to grow a bit faster than it used to.
Desktop use is of course declining, so it will be a larger share of a smaller market.
But enthusiasts have seen Linux as the better options for decades now, and gamers are coming over too, and use cases that require optimal security, and even some workstation tasks are done better on Linux because Linux has a superior kernel for multi threading.

But it will take some time, probably at least 10 years.

With Windows 12 rumoured to be a subscription model, yes definitely. Enterprise will buy up the subscriptions, home users will look elsewhere. Apple will take its share of course, their products are too pricey for a lot of people though. Linux is the only real option for folks who value owning their data.

Yes, I think it's realistic if we look at how things in computing have changed even just within the last few decades.

https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#monthly-200901-202603 in early 2009, IE was at ~65%, Chrome at <2%, we've gone from that to "IE does not exist" and Chrome in the same spot IE was then

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202603 in early 2009, Windows was at ~94%, now it is at ~26% with Android having taken the top spot, even that is just at ~37%, so there is now no dominant operating system overall

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide#monthly-200901-202603 even disregarding mobile devices, Windows has fallen from ~95% to ~61% in that time frame

and maybe I'm just old but early 2009 doesn't seem an enormously long time ago somehow

The only reference people have for these kind of judgements is polling by browser.

You're talking about users of a specific OS who would spend time to not make that known. They would also opt-out if any reporting about there machine specifics for polls, should they be asked.

I can guarantee real world usage is always higher than these polls suggest. I don't know about 10%, but they are higher in actuality.

If vr and ar are optimized for Linux then definitely. But tech illiteracy will keep windows around

My bet is that Linux will get 10% Steam market share by the end of this year, at most.

Yeah its feasible. Linux mint is doing gods work in making linux accessible for personal use. the biggest hurdle is workspace use, so much poorly supported software barely works on windows, and was never designed for linux in the first place.

Only because the desktop market will shrink.

I think most people's computing will go to phones, tablets, or phone/tablet-like devices (like Chromebooks or the Macbook Neo) that don't really count as desktops. I think the PC hardware market will shrink.

What's left will be PC enthusiasts and gamers clinging to their existing hardware, and TBH I can see 15% of those moving to some linux flavor as Microsoft basically sunsets desktop Windows.

Business workstations will be stuck with Windows forever, though.

Yes. Linux plays the long game instead of seeking short-term profits. Linux isn't even an OS per se, neither is a unified product from one company, and that exactly why I think it will outlast the proprietary products because it's adaptable, resilient to changes. the only challenge linux faces is hardware getting locked down...

I converted two of my friends so I’m doing my part! Just think if everyone gets two people they know to switch well be there in no time.