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submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
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Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] anaesidemus@hexbear.net 34 points 2 hours ago

Very cool photo from the latest eruption in Iceland

Lava flowing over the Blue Lagoon parking lot | RÚV – Ragnar Visage

fuck parking lots amirite?

[-] FnordPrefect@hexbear.net 13 points 2 hours ago

They paved parking lot to put up a Perdition party-sicko

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 17 points 2 hours ago

Critical support to lava rat-salute-2

[-] estii@hexbear.net 14 points 2 hours ago

nature is healing or whatever

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[-] SoyViking@hexbear.net 35 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

So, the yanks put on a fake Ukrainian moustache and attacked Russian territory with ATACMS missiles in clear violation of russian red lines. Then the British put on another fake Ukrainian moustache and attacked a Russian presidential command bunker with Storm Shadow missiles.

Then Russia responded by firing an ICBM against an Ukrainian arms manufacturing plant in Dnepropetrovsk (the first time in military history that an ICBM has been fired in anger?). Ukrainian air defences were unable to stop the ICBM.

I saw some westoid "expert" say that firing the ICBM was "irresponsible" since it could have scared the yanks into a nuclear exchange. That might be but I think this sends a very clear message to the west. I hope they get it.

I wonder what other messages Russia has prepared.

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 27 points 2 hours ago

The reaction of the Ukrainian media has been wild. I'll just post two screenshots from the Kyiv Post.

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[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 23 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

With Russia's missile strike last night involving an ICBM or IRBM with a conventional payload, there has been a lot of talk about the potential nuclear threat or nuclear capabilities. Which is valid of course, such weapons usually carry nuclear warheads.

However, I managed to find this interesting quote from 2012 from Sergey Karakaev, commander of the Russian strategic missile forces, on the development and construction of Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) or Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) weapons. Such weapons are intended to deliver a precision guided conventional weapons strike anywhere on the globe, within an hour from launch. It is a capability that the US in particular has been pursuing since the Bush Jr administration, first looking to convert a Trident SLBM to a conventional payload, and then on the development of hypersonic weapons. This caused tensions between Obama and Putin in 2013. Anyways, here is the quote from Sergey Karakaev from 2012.

In addition, according to Sergey Karakaev, commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, a liquid fuelled rocket, with its greater payload potential, will allow Russia "to realize such opportunities as the creation of high precision strategic weapons with non-nuclear warheads and a practically global range".

Russia can create non-nuclear, high precision weapons based on intercontinental rockets in the event that the USA also works on designing such a weapon", Karakaev points out.

It seems as if Russia has demonstrated this capability. This existence and deployment of this potential CPS system by Russia changes a lot of calculations around escalation in a potential NATO - Russia conflict.

From videos and pictures of the strike, which I'll post below in a spoiler tag, we can see six seperate re-entries into the earth's atmosphere, and each re-entry contains multiple submunitions, based on screenshots of the video, about six submunitions per re-entry event. So six re-entries with 6 submunitions each, for 36 hits total. That's quite a payload if it came from one missile. If being the keyword.

videos and screenshotsVideo 1, alternative xcancel link

Video 2, alternative xcancel link

Video 3 alternative xcancel link

Video 4 alternative xcancel link

Video 5 on Reddit

[-] kittin@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago

Literally the last thing you’ll see before the world ends

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 9 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

Yeah, if it's striking an underground bunker or hardened asset you'll see this kind of thing before the nuclear blast. If it's an air burst explosion thousands of metres in the sky , you won't even see this, you'll just see the nuclear blast...

It's terrifying.

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[-] plinky@hexbear.net 42 points 3 hours ago

to employ 5 thousand people we need 31 gw of power 😥

[-] merthyr1831@lemmy.ml 7 points 1 hour ago

MFG'ING actually stands for motherfucking gooning

[-] john_browns_beard@hexbear.net 10 points 2 hours ago

We crave treats so much that we're turning the whole earth into an oven

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 8 points 2 hours ago

Its not even treats, its idk what. Unlimited tech war on consulting and creative class?

[-] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 23 points 3 hours ago

It seems Chinese LLM models have caught up to western ones, even though they have inferior hardware. Also they say they're going to open source it.

DeepSeek’s first reasoning model R1-Lite-Preview turns heads, beating OpenAI o1 performance

https://venturebeat.com/ai/deepseeks-first-reasoning-model-r1-lite-preview-turns-heads-beating-openai-o1-performance/

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 11 points 2 hours ago

inferior hardware but cheap as shit free energy to train them

[-] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 12 points 2 hours ago

True, wouldn't surprise me if they also developed more efficient training and better data selection/curating to improve training

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[-] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 28 points 3 hours ago

Is there a good summary any of you all have regarding how badly Javier Milei and his government have fucked things up in Argentina (so far)?

[-] Karma_404@hexbear.net 22 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

A bloomer take on the recent news of China issuing USD-dominated sovereign bond to Saudi here.

Am close to illiterate on finance and economy but how solid is his first hypothetical scenario of China issuing ~100 billions of bond? Also, doesn't it changes the whole question of re/de-dollarization ?

[-] geikei@hexbear.net 7 points 2 hours ago

The 2 billion they issued was snapped up immediately by international buyers and over-subscribed by a factor of x15. So there is demand. I was positive but not too freaked out over it in my comments earlier. It’s a good thing to keep an eye on but there’s no guarantee this is what will happen at massive scales. The mechanism seems quite plausible in washing USD back to the US, helping countries with USD depts and advancing Chinese (non USD) trade and intergration with RoW. But there are always ways this mechanism gets nixed. The broader theme is correct though i think, a main motivation behind this is to experiment with ways to decrease US(D) dependency, level the global financial playing field and calm down the starving levels of demand for USD liquidity that holds a firm grasp in many if not most countries. It does have big "find out potencial" but there is no singular thing or move to uproot USD hegemony. More so China and maybe more importantly the US to slowly bleed it enough with a thousand cuts

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 9 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

I've been busy so haven't posted much lately, but I have been thinking about this a bit, and I think this is a pretty decent analysis, and in line with what I have said before about China's seeming reluctance to dedollarize at the moment. China's huge dollar surplus benefits their foreign policy/development plans. The dollar spends more farther than any other currency. They have a giant pit of dollars that they access very cheaply that they can throw at all sorts of BRI projects that foreign countries are going to be more than happy to accept. He's also right, IMO, that the US is kind of in a bind in that any way they attempt to fight China on this is going to hurt the US a lot, as well.

[-] Halloweenbean@hexbear.net 5 points 1 hour ago

The higher the usd goes, the more cost effective chinese exports are. That is all that matters to China.

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 5 points 2 hours ago

I mean global south also issues dollar debt shrug-outta-hecks

At best they could issue roughly their holdings in treasuries to create parity on the asset seizing front, but still meh

[-] Torenico@hexbear.net 25 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

Friendly Fire Incident

‘Closer to the caste’ – Milei slams his own vice-president

President Javier Milei opens up on relationship with Vice-President Victoria Villarruel, declaring in an interview that she has “no influence on decision-making” in his government and doesn’t take part in Cabinet meetings.

President Javier Milei has laid bare his dissatisfaction with Vice-President Victoria Villarruel, declaring that she has “no influence” on decision-making in his government and criticising her proximity to business leaders and politicians. Milei let rip at Villarruel directly in a television interview, stating that she had “decided not to participate” in Cabinet meetings and implying that their relationship is at its worst moment.

In the past, the La Libertad Avanza has refrained from criticising his second-in-command, but for the first time, he challenged her directly. “We have the relationship that is needed institutionally to fulfil our roles,” Milei said when asked about their relationship during an extensive interview with the LN+ news channel.

“Villarruel has no influence whatsoever in the decision-making process. She does not participate in Cabinet meetings. She decided not to participate. She has long since decided not to take part in Cabinet meetings,” he revealed. “In her vision, in many of the things we do… she is closer to the red circle, to what she calls high politics, and what we call ‘the caste,’” declared Milei.

It’s not the first time that reports of tensions between La Libertad Avanza’s top two have emerged. Earlier this year, Villarruel described Milei as a “poor little ham” sandwiched between herself and his sister, presidential chief-of-staff Karina Milei – whom he describes as “the boss.”

Villarruel, a hard-right conservative, made a name for herself as the founder of a non-profit organisation that denounced the crimes of leftist guerrilla groups during the right-wing dictatorship that seized power in 1976. In her public appearances, she often focuses on more traditional priorities of the Argentine right, championing cases against abortion, LGBTQ education in schools and prison terms she regards as too lax.

She's an insane piece of shit, ardent supporter of the 1976-1983 dictatorship. Her father was in the military and her only focus in life is to create a false equivalency between the guerrillas and the military who had the State at their disposal, which they used to torture, kill, disappear people and steal babies. It goes without saying she's a massive transphobe and a zionist.

Tensions between Villarruel, 49, and Milei, 53, flared too during attempts to pass legislation and presidential decrees through the Senate, which the vice-president heads. Allies of the President accused Villarruel of not doing enough to resist opposition pressure. She was also criticised for approving pay hikes for lawmakers and staff in Congress.

Many commentators say their relationship was severely damaged by Milei’s decision to hand control of the Defence and Security Ministries – Villarruel’s preferred areas of government – to his former campaign rival-turned-ally Patricia Bullrich and her vice-presidential pick, Luis Petri. “I didn’t like it,” Villarruel said previously of Milei’s decision. “But I respect it.”

The two leaders are hardly the first presidential pair to clash. Milei’s predecessor in office, Alberto Fernández, was at loggerheads with his vice-president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, during their 2019-2023 government, with the duo reportedly going months without talking.

They're not even a year into their administration and they're already ripping each other apart lmao. Not sure what they're trying to do, but institutionally it's not looking very good. This tells you a lot about milei's mental instability, because he's not well. You can't just lash out at your VP like that, there are other channels and institutions you can use if you want to purge your VP or something I guess. I mean, there will be some consequences for shit like that you know?

It makes less sense when you consider Villarruel has some commanding power within the military. If there's anything she has done lately is attend to military barracks to speak up with people, something she's not really allowed to do because she ain't CiC, but whatever, not that like it even matters. It's not that the entire military is at her disposal, I think most military men don't really pay attention to her, but some officers might have connections with her deceased father (who was in the military and achieved a high rank) and might see her as one of their own, more specifically as part of the "Military Party", an old-fashioned coup-friendly group of people whose main ideology can be loosely described as rabid anti-peronism and anti-communism and who, over the last three decades, have lost power to the more efficient compradors coming from other areas of society (business, political parties, unions, etc). In other words, the Military Party was the US' way of getting shit done in Argentina, but in the 90s the method of carrying out constant coups to steer the country at their will became less efficient than just installing civilian neoliberal governments instead and therefore the Military Party was ditched, even though it still exists.

If anything, this exposes a deeper conflict within milei's government. I think the unwanted presence of his sister in decision-making is causing a lot of harm, after all, she's an absolute nobody but has extreme control over policy. It reminds me of the late Qing Dynasty politics, when the Emperor was surrounded by insanely incompetent advisors which had to handle extremely sensitive topics like foreign policy and stuff like supressing of the Taiping Rebellion, which they did but only after a massive bloodbath. This is more or less the same, super unqualified people are taking key posts in government and are colliding with other ministers who are more or less better qualified to hold their posts. Sure, Villarruel is a nazi lunatic, but she is a professional, she doesn't belong to that band of loudmouths like the milei siblings and the many "libertarian" trolls that now occupy State institutions.

They can kill each other for all I care.

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[-] SoyViking@hexbear.net 46 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Two headlines from the website of centre-lib mainstream state media DR:

  • The ICC issues arrest warrant for "Israel's" prime minister
  • The terror organisation Hamas applauds arrest warrant

I fucking hate western journalism

Edit: In one of their news updates these spineless slimeballs writes that the arrest warrant is likely to "complicate the efforts to negotiate a ceasefire to end the 13 month long conflict".

[-] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 25 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

What is actually likely to complicate the efforts to negotiate a ceasefire to end the 13 month long conflict:

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 18 points 3 hours ago

We need german speakers to see truly galaxy brain takes

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 50 points 5 hours ago

walrus man bloodfeast checking-in

[-] Voidance@hexbear.net 27 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

a difficult event in the hague

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 49 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

ICC woke up wowee

russian guidance for icbm so shit they missed kiev by 1000 kms.

Weird news all around

*big brainy take, maybe iran gave them one of their thingies with shorter range

[-] kittin@hexbear.net 15 points 3 hours ago

Ivan you forgot load nuclear warhead

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago

low effort jokeprigo-pog "Shoigu, Gerasimov, where’s my ~~ammo~~ nuclear warheads" prigo-pog

[-] kleeon@hexbear.net 26 points 5 hours ago

russian guidance for icbm so shit they missed kiev by 1000 kms

missed washington by 8000 kms*

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 34 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

More funny shit from the failed assassination attempt against Lula da Silva, Geraldo Alckmin (VP, probably known for posting Wojak and other memes on his twitter account) and Supreme Court Judges Alexandre de Moraes (The one that fucked with Elon Musk) and Flavio Dino (Brazilian Communist Party Member and Former Governor). They were using their whatsapp group (yes, they were using this shit to plot a coup), they named their group "Copa 2022", to pretend it was a World Cup group but also because Copa sounds like Coup. Coup 2022. Holy fucking shit these people are fucking stupid, they fucking had a document with the whole coup only changing some of the names of people they wanted to kill/arrest, they left the files on the printer, and the printer was literally inside Lula's Office (which was Bolsonaro's office before). No fucking wonder they couldn't do shit, and the US/CIA was against this.

[-] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 26 points 5 hours ago

So the ICBM was there to tell NAFO that Russian ICBMs actually work. They will probably do a nuclear test as well.

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this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
149 points (96.9% liked)

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