this post was submitted on 23 May 2025
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[–] RaisedFistJoker@hexbear.net 74 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

I will never again make or believe a prediction about the duration of a war

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 48 points 2 weeks ago

Predictions like this are always tricky, but it's interesting to see how different the assessment of the situation is here compared to the propaganda in the mainstream media. These reports are far more rooted in material reality because people make financial decisions based on them.

[–] FALGSConaut@hexbear.net 30 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

My prediction: it'll last until it's over, but I could be wrong

[–] PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Eurocrats will just ignore the minor detail that it ended and won't change course nor rhetorics.

[–] Sinisterium@hexbear.net 51 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Damn so us involvement actually caused russia to win more than if they just accepted crimea as part of russia?

[–] nohaybanda@hexbear.net 43 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

That's not true. The war enabled the US to cannibalise Europe and put them on a very short leash for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure the four oblasts are nearly as valuable to Russia, even if they had not been absolutely wrecked by 11 years of war (so far).

[–] Grapho@lemmy.ml 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

On the other hand, the US has also cannibalized the economies of their strongest vassals in such a way that a pink wave is liable to break out at some point.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 1 points 1 week ago

Don't be so sure. Gladio never ended. The only ones allowed to make sense on Russia are the far-right reactionary parties. The left euro-coms are totally defanged NATO stans. Add in the huge anti-immigrant racism push by the bourgeois press and those parties are making continual massive gains year over year in France, Germany, elsewhere and I expect will sweep the continent within the next 10 years with a few hold-outs. Maybe in 20 years you could see some reaction to that, some rejection but between then and now IMO Europeans will experience horrible economies, being used as fodder against China, increased reaction, gutting of social services, scapegoating of minorities, etc. Europeans like Americans are so cooked in propaganda and white supremacy that they're not going to break out and go anti-capitalist in the near term.

[–] buh@hexbear.net 49 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

zelensky-pain he'll be in a small aircraft by september

[–] UmbraVivi@hexbear.net 43 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

funniest outcome would be zelensky fleeing to russia

[–] djsaskdja@reddthat.com 9 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Argentina would be way more funny.

[–] LoveWitch@hexbear.net 31 points 2 weeks ago

He will live in a villa mansion outside Kracov running a shadow government until the EU decides they want good relations with Russia again, which is when he will have a heart attack.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 48 points 2 weeks ago (8 children)

while it is nevertheless relevant as a major publication by a western bank, this is such a stupid and ill-informed report. july 2025 is 2 months away and there is absolutely no way a peace treaty is signed by then. negotiations literally haven't even started. anyone who believes otherwise should have a look at this article on the nuts and bolts of diplomacy in the current context.

further, this is entirely unfounded and does not reflect russian troop/materiel replenishment. the comment about 118 years is just accountant map brained bullshit

Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years

unbelievably poor analysis

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 33 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I agree there is a lot of stupid in the report, but there doesn't need to be a peace treaty signed for the war to end. It's not unthinkable that the US could walk away within two months if they decide that there's no path forward, or the AFU could start to visibly collapse. In either case, the war would be effectively over. It's obviously going to take more time for the hostilities to end and diplomacy to happen, but effectively the war would be over at that point.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 20 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

if you count scenarios where hostilities are ongoing as the war being over, the war is already over and has been since 2023. there's no outcome from here on out where ukraine isn't a failed state for at least the next generation, no matter what other territory changes hands or how many people die

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 24 points 2 weeks ago

I don't think there was any outcome where Ukraine could win from the start of the war, but what I'm talking about is the narrative collapse in the west. Right now we're still getting articles like this gem arguing that Ukraine is winning actually, and there is still popular belief in the west that the war can be won.

[–] Sinisterium@hexbear.net 23 points 2 weeks ago

Because war is always linear, right?

[–] forcefemjdwon@hexbear.net 22 points 2 weeks ago

Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years

We are living in an early Soviet cartoon where the largest capitalist institutions have to reject basic laws of the universe like quantity → quality because they are Bolshevist propaganda. Terrible.

[–] Bloobish@hexbear.net 13 points 2 weeks ago

Yeah this gives off the energy of a propaganda post to scare all of the capitalists and capitalist bootlickers about the conflict

[–] Infamousblt@hexbear.net 10 points 2 weeks ago

The only way this happens in this timeline is if there is an extremely rapid pro Russian coup of Ukraine. And even then it would have to be like this weekend

[–] Saeculum@hexbear.net 7 points 2 weeks ago

For all people like to compare it to WWI, they don't ever seem to think that it's probably going to end like it where one side eventually has its ability to maintain the front destroyed and then starts losing massive amounts of territory very quickly.

At the rate the western front was going it would have taken hundreds of years to get all of Germany, but that's not how wars of attrition work.

[–] Sebrof@hexbear.net 4 points 1 week ago

Russia will control all of Ukraine in about... 118 years

Do they believe their own bullshit? Because imagine only ever predicting shit with a straight line, where everything is linear, quantitive change is steady and predictable and qualities never evolve. There is no nonlinearity, there is no potential for collapse, chaos, or punctuated equilibrium. The small changes you see today will continue as they are for centuries.

I know it's nerd talk to discuss dialectics, or complexity, but it's mind boggling how undialectical these serious people are. Part of me thinks it just cope on their part to make their masters happy because how could one make that prediction without smelling your own bs and knowing its a completely meaningless number. But banks and think tanks do select for the smoothest of minds.

[–] Cimbazarov@hexbear.net 42 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Its going to be so tough to talk to liberals about this. They all have this hagiographic view of Zelesnky

[–] Sinisterium@hexbear.net 27 points 2 weeks ago

AKSHUALLY ukrainians killed a billion russians because smol bean ~~finnish~~ sniper of kiev

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 36 points 2 weeks ago

tails-pout Well well it's a Banker's war after all same-as-it-ever-was

[–] RION@hexbear.net 36 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Best case - "South Korea"

Still ok - "Israel"

Not great - "Georgia"

Worst case - "Belarus"

Hmm

[–] Sinisterium@hexbear.net 31 points 2 weeks ago

Best case = best case for the us

[–] Moss@hexbear.net 29 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

The financiers have lost interest in this war, so it's time for it to end

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 14 points 2 weeks ago

Next up AUKUS!

[–] TankieTanuki@hexbear.net 27 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

NATO's Adventures: Endgame (2025)

[–] crispy_lol@hexbear.net 10 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

It’s like the god dang avengers

[–] Staines@hexbear.net 14 points 2 weeks ago

I don't see Russia stopping until they drain Ukraine to breaking point and prove their point by exploiting it a little.

[–] PurrLure@hexbear.net 8 points 2 weeks ago

Yeah, I hear this one at work all the time. Sure thing boss. k-pain