Not saying bikes aren't the most dangerous, but comparing against the distance skews this. A plane trip is usually quite a bit longer than any other.
Not sure how else to measure it though, maybe against number of trips traveled?
this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2025
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Number of trips sounds more reasonable. It will show the odds of completing a trip for different means of transport
Hours of travel time would likely be a good fit too.
hours doesn’t come as close to the metric that you’d like though
the purpose of travel is to get from point a to point b, so you want to measure the likelihood of death when travelling the comparable trips
hours doesn’t really work because different modes of transport complete the trip in very different times. distance however is relatively similar
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Go go gadget spitball math!
Sources for average transit mode speed
Source 1:
These are the average speeds of some common modes of transportation:
Commercial passenger aircraft: 547 to 575 miles per hour Private jet: 400 to 711 miles per hour Europe high-speed rail: 155 to 217 miles per hour Shinkansen (Japanese bullet trains): 150 to 200 miles per hour Modern cruise ship: 23 to 27 miles per hour Bicycle: 10 to 24 miles per hour Sailboat: 4.5 to 7 miles per hour Walking: 3 miles per hour
Source 2:
Source 3:
https://wonderlearning.blog/real-average-speed-us-train-facts
When people think of passenger trains, they often envision swift, efficient travel. However, the operational reality for Amtrak, the primary passenger rail operator in the United States, is far more nuanced. While its locomotives are capable of impressive speeds, the average journey speed for most passengers is surprisingly modest, often hovering between 50 and 60 miles per hour, with long-distance routes averaging even less.
Ok, I'm USAsian, gonna be US-centric, and I'm gonna make some spitball roundings for easier math:
Average Actual Travel Speed:
Motorcycle: 50 mph
Car: 50 mph
Ferry: 25 mph
Train: 50 mph (long/medium distance)
Bus: 25 mph
Subway/Lightrail: 25 mph
Aircraft: 550 mph
Attempt at Conveying Math Proof
So we have:
D = deaths per billion miles. S = speed in miles per hour.
If we first solve for and find the time taken to travel one billion miles at speed S, we would do:
T = 1,000,000,000 / S
(T is time in hours)
What we want is D / T
D / T = D / ( 1,000,000,000 / S)
->
D / T = (D * S) / 1,000,000,000
So, that's our rough conversion.
Using (D * S) / 1,000,000,000 , the OP graph becomes:
Deaths per hour of transit, by transit mode, for every billion miles travelled:
Motorcycles: 10,628.5
Car: 364
Ferry: 79.25
Train: 21.5
Subway/Lightrail: 6
Bus: 2.75
Aircraft: 38.5
So... thats basically deaths per billion hours spent using said transit mode.
Notes
You may have noticed that Aircraft are now more dangerous than Buses, Subways, med/long distance Trains, and are only ~2x safer than Ferries, not ~45x times safer, as they are with the OP metric.
One hour of Motorcycles transit, on the other hand, is now ~29x more deadly than an hour of car transit, ~276x more deadly than an hour of aircraft transit...
... as opposed to the OP metric, where a billion miles of motorcycle travel is again ~29x more deadly than a billion miles of car travel, but is ~3039x more deadly than a billion miles of aircraft travel.
tl;dr:
Basically, take travel speed into account, and aircraft become significantly more deadly per hour spent travelling in them, but the ratios between terrestrial and aquatic craft stay pretty similar, due to no one having yet proposed the ikranoplan as a mass transit solution.
(Historically minded readers may note the absence from these numbers of the 'revolutionary' hyperloop, as well as monorail, due to basically not fucking existing in real life.)
You may quibble about the actual average speeds of various transit modes as you please.
More Notes
Probably also worth noting that this is only deaths, not injuries, say, requiring hospitalization.
I imagine doing deaths + serious injuries would also change this graph significantly.
Also also, this doesn't take into account road rage that does not directly involve the vehicle, I don't think.
It does not include injuries or deaths on some form of public or mass transit where say, you get assaulted by another passenger, or something like that.
That could also tweak things, potentially, but I have no strong instinct about if it would really matter, or how... and, you could again do deaths vs deaths + serious injuries.
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I feel like measuring this data based on miles is bad. This data would be much more relevant if it was measured in passenger travel hours instead.
A plane can travel like 500 miles in an hour. I feel that this skews the data significantly since its being compared to vehicles that should not typically be covering over 100 miles per hour.
I was thinking the same thing, but if the goal is to get from point a to point b then the real question is what gets you there the safest.
For example, if you wanted to know what the safest way to get from Los Angeles to San Francisco was or what the relative danger of each travel method was, this would be the right way to frame the data. The fact that it takes longer to travel with a car than a plane doesn't factor into the safety of the travel. You still go the same distance.
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RIP my co worker and friend. It was 2001. You were the OG Bay Area techie. Empty pepsi cans and pizza delivery stacked sloppily on your desk. Smart AF and hard working, always laughing. Earning money loving living .
Riding your slim machine between lanes of SF traffic. Someone opened his car door for Lord knows what reason.
Your girlfriend was inconsolable at your funeral
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What country? Why is bicycle missing?
America, because nobody else has nearly the fatality rate per mile. SEA has more fatalities per capita, but that's because they have 100x more bikes per capita.
The average american motorcyclist only rides as a hobby, they drive a car the rest of the time, and they're either driving a racing bike or a 900 lb Harley. This isn't a recipe for competent riding.
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Didn't realise deaths were so frequent on ferries.
My guess is part of what’s throwing that statistic off is the relatively short journeys of most ferries.
Maybe per hours of travel would be better? It would also make airplanes less of an outlier.
Airplanes should then be split to “general aviation” and “commercial aviation” to assuage people’s fears. General aviation is a lot riskier than flying commercial.
If you've seen Steven Spielberg's 'War of the Worlds', you'll know ferries can be quite perilous.
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It would be interesting to see different motorcycle stats. Those 100+ horsepower beasts are probably in another ballpark than regular commuter bikes (e.g. 125cc).
Other vehicles on the roads and not wearing helmets are the two biggest dangers for motorcyclists.
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Silverado running a red light smears both equally
I'll be honest, this will be skewed heavily by most motorcycles are not designed for two or more people
And most motorcyclists know that, and NEVER have any passengers, which self-selects for the risk takers heavily.
Also heavily skewed by the fact that most motorcycle deaths are not caused by the driver, but by other road users not looking, and doing stupid shit like taking a turn blind at 50mph then running the motorcyclist over.
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But how do they die? How many are killed by other drivers?
I've wanted a motorcycle for decades. NHTSA's stats on motorcycle accidents send very mixed signals:
- Thirty-four percent of motorcycle riders in fatal crashes in 2023 had no valid motorcycle licenses. -In 2023 motorcycle riders in fatal crashes had higher percentages of alcohol impairment than drivers of any other motor vehicle type (26% for motorcycles, 24% for passenger cars, 20% for light trucks, and 4% for large trucks).
- Forty-one percent of motorcycle riders who died in single-vehicle crashes in 2023 were alcohol-impaired
- Motorcycle riders killed in traffic crashes at night were two and a half times more frequently alcohol-impaired than those killed during the day (38% and 15%) in 2023.
- In States without universal helmet laws, based on known helmet use, 51 percent of motorcyclists killed in 2023 were not wearing helmets, as compared to 10 percent in States with universal helmet law
So basically, have a license and training and don't drink. Helmets are good for your health.
...
Twenty-four percent of motorcycles in fatal traffic crashes in 2023 collided with fixed objects, compared to 16 percent for passenger cars, 12 percent for light trucks, and 4 percent for large trucks.
Don't ride with a loonitick.
In 2023 there were 3,419 fatal two-vehicle crashes each involving a motorcycle and another type of vehicle. In 46 percent (1,588) of these crashes, the other vehicles were turning left while the motorcycles were going straight, passing, or overtaking other vehicles.
Well, that sucks :(
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Yeah that's always key to these stats and it's never reported. If you're not drunk when you get behind the wheel of a vehicle the safety by a lot.
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Fairies are 3rd on the list.
Shhh! They prefer Fey-Folk.
What percentage of plane deaths are snake related?
I wonder how these stats would change if there weren’t cars on the road. I mean its pretty obvious if a car and a motorcycle crash the motorcycle’s gonna have it worst.
The numbers would go down by half, which is meaningful, but also way less than you'd want it to. I can't be arsed to pull up the NHTSA data url right now, but I use the factoid all the time when I talk to people about my riding: give or take 54% of motorcycle deaths are single vehicle accidents. Of those, the vast majority involve alcohol or speeding. So if I avoid alcohol I cut my chances by a large factor.
Speeding is slightly fuzzier, because the statistics are built from crash reports by police, and you can never know if they take the word of a witness that a motorcycle passed at a 4mph difference in speed, which, c'mon, is not the same as someone whizzing down a canyon road at 20mph or more over the limit.
but I use the factoid all the time
My favorite "factoid" is that the -oid part originally means "resembling," like a humanoid is something that only looks human, so technically a factoid would be something that only resembles fact. However, I'm not a dirty prescriptivist and I understood perfectly what you meant, so please carry on.
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How is a bus less than a train?
Suicides?
Haven't you seen Murder of the Orient Express?
Murder mysteries are the #1 cause of railway-relsted deaths.
Just guessing, the lower speed might help.
Edit: found a statistic that says otherwise. Translated from german. Original source
-
Car: 1.57
→ 2.53 per billion miles -
Bus: 0.13
→ 0.21 per billion miles -
Train: 0.03
→ 0.048 per billion miles -
Airplane: 0.01
→ 0.016 per billion miles -
Bicycle: 9.8
→ 15.77 per billion miles -
Ship: 0.1
→ 0.16 per billion miles -
Tram: 0.19
→ 0.31 per billion miles -
Motorcycle: 46.5
→ 74.83 per billion miles
Edit 2: Interesting how my german statistic shows way lower numbers than the original statistic.
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I was in a bike accident once. I walked away with cartilage inflammation but the driver ended up breaking a different bone in 3 out of 4 limbs, he spent a month in the hospital. I told myself I was too old for that shit and definitely too young to die from it.
Scariest moment of my life and I'm never ever getting on a motorcycle again. Fact is I got very very lucky. Wasn't even our fault, an other motorcycle came into our lane and hit us. They were drunk but if it would have been a car or if we were going faster, we would be dead.
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I'd consider those driving motorcycles to be more prone to take risky maneuvers.
Wonder how the graph would change if they drove like regular commuters to the destinations (e.g. not weaving at traffic lights, not speeding for the thrill, no wheelies and other stunts).
I'd be interested to know if motor scooters/Vespas were lumped in with motorcycles. I'd wager a 99cc scooter has a lower mortality rate than a crotch rocket or a Harley.
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