this post was submitted on 09 Feb 2025
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Not just aluminum, but building factories for anything takes years nowadays. The sheer amount of equipment needed alone is staggering, not to mention that such equipment is usually made from steel and aluminum and is often foreign made.
And this is presuming that the owners want to build the factory as fast as possible. There's quite a few from Biden's incentives that are still not anywhere near ready to start producing anything. And that's presuming that anybody has confidence that the economic environment will stay stable enough to make such a multi-decade investment worthwhile and won't be reversed because of unexpected tariffs.
The thing is that you invest and build things like factories with a long-term time horizon. One of the things that makes stable western democracies rich is that we have stable governments and a rule of law that makes planning these large, long-term investments easier. With Trump, you have no idea what is happening next month, never mind next decade. And you can assume that most of this crazy stuff will be repealed in 4 years max. So, it is not worth building most of the factories you would need if this were going to be the policy for decades.
As you say, the supply chain is unlikely to shift that much. What will happen are changes in demand. It will hurt both sides.
There is a reason that The Depression was global. You cannot tariff your way to prosperity.