this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 16th to June 22nd, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Heart
(hexbear.net)
Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Israel is running out of interceptor missiles. China’s export bans mean they can’t be replaced.
Hexbear Post
Me when China does something other than farming profits
My apologies to Xi Jingping, mercury was in retrograde.
So Trump deciding to trade war China just might lead to the death of the Zionist entity?
Holy shit, how did I not make this connection. 5d chess on Xi's part once again, god damn.
That’s it, I’m out. I’m no longer opining or speculating if China isn’t doing enough or if there’s some ways they are doing a lot but we just don’t know or. Nope, I’m just gonna Trust the Plan and assuming the My President (
) is doing the right thing.
Broke: get Russia to burn through all their equipment on Ukraine 🇺🇸🇪🇺😎
Woke: get Europe to burn through all their equipment on Ukraine 🇺🇸🇷🇺😎
Bespoke: get America to burn through all their equipment on Israel 🇨🇳🛠️
Nothing ever happens crowd (in regards to China's involvement in military geopolitics) are in tatters, myself included.
I don't really blame people for being upset at China not taking a more proactive role in assisting Iran in a way where we can see it obviously, but I do think there was a lot of doomerism with respect to China that happened far too quickly. Iran seems to have a handle on things, and wins if the war is drawn out, arguably even if the US gets involved, so China's involvement seems to be more in the background for now.
Obviously, the situation can change, but for now I don't see reason to write China off as entirely passive either.
Don’t write China off yet. As I have been saying, if China threatens to stop the global economy, the conflict WILL end before Monday. There is nothing the US can do about it except to watch Wall Street stock market crash when it opens, should they refuse to a truce.
I've come to realise that China isn't as uninvolved as it may first appear, but is there any weight behind China threatening to "stop the global economy"? That seems like it would be a massive thumb on the scales from China even if they're more invested than they'll admit.
If they feel that Iran has a handle on the situation (which appears to be the case for the moment, albeit we have limited intel), then I don't think they'll see the need to take a drastic step. Keep supplying components for making weapons, intel, and diplomatic support. Iran hasn't exactly gone out of their way to cultivate that degree of Chinese support, either.
Yeah from what I can tell it's more bloomer by the day. Iran's people are untied, they're standing strong, and slowly whittling down Israel's supply of interceptors, striking even in the day time now. So long as TACO Trump maintains his end of the bargain Iran is in a very good place. Increasingly looking like Israel massively miscalculated. The Chinese strategy will be what it's always been, "never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake."
Certainly one good sign is Iranians have united around the government. Even women activists in prison have done so. Still, if US gets directly involved I fear things will take an unpredictable turn.
China absolutely has the capacity to do that, but they probably won’t though.
This is true. They dominate samarium which is rare and important for guided missiles, smart bombs etc. Thats just one of the several. World ain't ready for if they pull that trigger
Wait so… is the US dependent on Chinese materials to make munitions that are ultimately supposed to defend against China? Because that seems like a really, really dumb idea
Welcome to capitalism, the most rational form of economic organization! If all you look at is the bottom line then it makes perfect sense to make yourself dependant on who is supposedly your biggest rival/next victim!
Yes.
Clearly, you understand neither Markets (pbut) nor Economy (pbut)....
Yes. Thanks to Cheney and Rumsfeld in particular, the MIC has privatized and outsourced so much that while I wouldn’t say it’s all a grift or that profit hasn’t always been the point anyway, it’s a situation of a quantitative change leading to a qualitative change. The pursuit of profit via military industry has become so desperate they are willing to sacrifice their ability to wage war for it.
Trust the Plan
“Capitalists will sell us the rope we hang them with” but it’s china exporting rare earth metals.
That’s the cost of getting cheap goods.
The US has stopped developing its uranium extraction industry following the Lisbon Protocol because Russia can supply tons of cheap uranium by dismantling their huge stockpile of nuclear warheads.
As a result, even with the Russia-Ukraine war going on and unprecedented Western sanctions against Russia, the US still continues to import uranium from Russia!
Having said that, I don’t think there will ever be a hot war with China. The post-1991 US military industrial complex is all about grifting and profit. The US is not under threat as long as it has nukes.
And the wars it sponsored are more about creating chaos and destabilization to reshape regional politics and economy to its interests rather than conquering land. And having an advanced enemy like during the Soviet times means trillions of dollars more funding for the military industrial complex and completes the loop of perpetual grifting for the defense contractors.
If China does something, the war will stop. Will China break the decades long street of not doing something?
Their "involvement" matters when the Iranians and the Palestinians stop dying. IMO some YT grifter using western MSM headlines which we know more than half the time are made to justify the infinitely expanding US MIC spending is not serious narrative at this point.
Yes Israel is running out of bombs and missiles. So anyway another bomb dropped in Gaza and Iran is still about to get nuked.
This guy talks a lot about Petrodollar nonsense and how China’s going to create their own dollar-denominated financial system to kill the US dollar lol. I don’t even know how these people can be taken seriously, but apparently it is quite easy to gather a following on Youtube and social media if you say what people want to hear.
For once 100% agreement here.
There was news that China will send some rare earth minerals to the US around 10 days ago, but nothing specific since then. Does anyone have any real info?
Mofcom says they are currently accelerating the examination process to approve export permits for rare earth materials. I believe that they are exporting for civilian use but not military, but I’m not sure how they can track the usage once they have reached the other end.
They made some deal on extending existing export licences and loosening controls for 6 months but china has put up a lot of bureaucratic hurdles in aquiring licences, making excuses for not sending stuff and demanding proof of use and sensitive information. The deal wasnt anything concrete and binding, just "we'll look into it and let you get some more". So that the hole in inventories isnt and wont be replenished and scarcity will continue. Hell china has slowed down in the digging up, buying and refining volumes already and those havent even picked up post "deal"
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: