Also, fuck Micron and the loyalty I gave them
this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2026
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AI, in this case, refers to LLMs, GPT technology, and anything listed as "AI" meant to increase market valuations.
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Because a cutting edge semiconductor fab takes about $10 billion and 3-5 years to build. So when they made the plans in 2020 based on anticipated demand in 2023-2025, they started the process for manufacturing memory that would be useful for DDR5 specs. Then big orders came in later, during the AI boom of 2023 onward, to claim the cutting edge fabs' 2025 production, to manufacture that very fast memory to be connected directly to logic chips rather than standalone memory packages/DIMMs.
In other industries, production would just pick up to meet the new demand, faster, to claim all that money sloshing around. But when the bottleneck is with something that takes 5-10 years to finance and plan, sudden increases in demand usually result in crazy price volatility.
See also the whiskey market of 2015-2025, where the production of whiskeys that required 12+ years of aging hit a bottleneck, because 2005 producers couldn't have predicted just how much 12-year-old whiskey people would want in 2017.