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submitted 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is of fires in northern Israel set off by Hezbollah, to force settlers to retreat from their occupied areas, in response to attacks on civilians in Lebanon.


I'm not gonna lie to you - I thought Israel would have started shit with Hezbollah by now which would have derailed whatever megathread theme I had planned, so I didn't bother planning one.

If you want a decent couple pieces going over what Hezbollah has done to Israel, then have a look at How 'Israel' Has Lost The North and Hezbollah's Quarterly Report. It's not exactly the most professional analysis, as you'll see if you read it, but it gets the point across and relies on evidence. In essence, Hezbollah has pushed the Israelis back tens of kilometers and decimated their border infrastructure, all while unveiling anti-aircraft missiles that have forced Israel to reconsider bombing runs. They still probably have the ability to turn various towns and cities in Lebanon to rubble, but Hezbollah can do massive damage back to Israel in turn. This has gone on so long with so little meaningful opposition by Israel that border settlements are going a little haywire and tentatively declaring independence from Israel and saying they don't want IDF troops there anymore. I don't take these terribly seriously from a military standpoint but it is indicative of the Zionist settler mindset crumbling over the last 9 months.

We're now at the point where Israel kinda has to go to war against Hezbollah or the entire Zionist ideology of military deterrence and expansion via illegal settlements simply no longer functions, but that war will also lead to massive destruction for military and civilian facilities (ports, power stations, war factories, etc) which is a massive problem for Israel's continued existence. Hamas continues to function inside Gaza despite the surface occupation of significant areas, including the Gaza-Egypt border, and attrition there is leading to big materiel and psychological losses for Israel too. And Yemen has, for all intents and purposes, prevailed against America's failed attempt to thwart their blockade - with some in the army claiming it's the most intense naval battle America has faced since WW2 - and missile strikes are tentatively beginning to hit or at least threaten ships in the Mediterranean Sea.

Nukes are still lurking quietly in the background, of course, but the Resistance is perfectly aware of that and still seems confident to go ahead with operations, so I can't really do anything but shrug and say that I trust them to do what's right.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Lebanon! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 123 points 6 months ago

Never turn off this website again. I saw the Bolivia news, rushed to the news mega and saw the gates of heaven locked. My hands started trembling as I realised that I had nobody to talk to about internal Bolivian politics. Out of desperation, and may Allah forgive me for these words, I started tweeting. Astaghfirullah wa atoub ilayh

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[-] Greenleaf@hexbear.net 103 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Just citing Biden’s twitter account here… he is “appalled” at the protest of land being auctioned off in occupied Palestine (where all the violence came from the Zionist side) but merely “disturbed” that a white American woman tried to drown a Palestine child in a pool recently.

Fuck you Genocide Joe

[-] MolotovHalfEmpty@hexbear.net 102 points 6 months ago

In a bid to increase productivity in its economy (now mostly owned by Northern Europe after the financial crisis) and 'fill gaps in skilled work' Greece is now moving to a 6 Day Work Week in many sectors.

Congratulations European technocrats, you've managed to roll back hard won progress by almost 200 years.

eu-cool

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[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 98 points 6 months ago

Gotta say that coups these days are embarrassing. What happened to taking the TV station, having a guy with a goofy military hat deliver a speech on live TV, shooting the president, shutting down the capital, making calls to Washington DC and suspending the constitution. The real pros of the 60s are all dead.

any officer after 1991 can't coup. all they know is cia, declare martial law, post on twitter, be white, eat shit and die

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[-] Greenleaf@hexbear.net 97 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Violence outside L.A. synagogue taxed LAPD, sparks condemnation from Biden, Newsom, Bass

Sharing this article only to highlight how the propaganda machine works.

The article first talks about how all these very important people (Biden, Newsom, Bass) are condemning pro-Palestine protestors for targeting a Jewish synagogue.

The last part includes several sympathetic interviews with members of the congregation.

Sandwiched in there is a brief mention of why that specific synagogue was protested at the specific time: there was a presentation/meeting going on about buying up land in Gaza. So… just a little “how can we take advantage of the genocide and ethnic cleansing going on?” shindig. Never is anyone on the pro-Palestine side even interviewed to give their side.

The way it is written gives the uncritical reader (most readers) the impression that Jewish congregants are being targeted just for being Jewish. That they give a mention of the stated reason is irrelevant when you soak your article in condemnations from government officials and when you only provide statements from one side.

Edit: turned on Hasan a moment ago, he’s discussing the protest. Pretty awful stuff coming from the Zionist side that was never mentioned in the LA Times article like “sand n-words go home!” And the violence was entirely one-sided (Zionists attacking protestors) but the article never mentions that, it conveniently focuses on “arrests”.

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[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 91 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

My country is COTW again let's goooooooooooooooooooo

Free AMA for all the Hexbearians today. Ask me anything about Lebanon (and Syria, hell even Iraq because my wife is from there and I've spent lots of time there)

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[-] sisatici@hexbear.net 91 points 5 months ago

Arab league no longer designates hezbollah as terrorists

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[-] somename@hexbear.net 90 points 6 months ago

In some non-Biden related news, the Supreme Court ruled that cities are allowed to make sleeping outside illegal.

This is such a giant leap in criminalizing homelessness. Like, this has been in the works for a while, and in a lot of ways municipalities have been making homelessness de-facto illegal, but now they can just ticket or arrest people for a basic part of living, a fundamental need of continuing existence.

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[-] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 87 points 6 months ago

Now Reddit Frontpage is filled with Democrat gaslighting about how Biden actually won the debate and was tough on Trump.

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[-] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 87 points 6 months ago

Biden is gonna come on stage loaded with Drugs lol. He refused a drug test.

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[-] Dessa@hexbear.net 87 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

An interesting comment posted on Naked Capitalism by a traveler to occupied Palestine who sheds a little light on what it looks like far from the front:

spoilerI just returned yesterday from a business trip to Israel. Some anecdata to share:

  • the flight there was three-quarters full; the return was entirely full. Lots of families on both. At passport control on the US side of the return most of the people on the flight went through the Israeli passport line, not the US passport line. So it was mostly Israelis leaving, not tourists.
  • news in Tel Aviv does not show much about what is going on in Gaza. The nightly news was more focused on the fires at the Lebanon border and the death of multiple IDF soldier in a Rafah attack. Nothing really about the counter-attacks and communal responses.
  • there are protests almost nightly in front of the IDF headquarters and many nights in front of Netanyahu’s personal residence in Jerusalem. The protesters are mostly the secular types (or “State of Israel” types as defined in the Pappe piece linked here yesterday).
  • even the secular types are rabidly racist against anyone deemed ‘arab’. Was subjected to a six-hour tour of Jerusalem organized by work where the tour guide ranted about ‘the arab mindset’ and went to great pains to point out how Israel was not an apartheid state because a single muslim woman was working as a tour bus driver. Israeli execs at company dinner made multiple casually racist comments about employees at a vendor with Persian surnames being arab terrorists (the vendor and employees are canadian, didn’t matter).
  • People in Tel Aviv are partying and behaving like nothing bad is going on. If you had been there since last October and were only exposed to local news I doubt you’d have any idea of how bad the situation in Gaza really was. And this feeds into the paranoid/delusional mindset around ‘the arabs’ and ‘antisemitism’.
  • the touristic industries have completely collapsed. There were no lines in Jerusalem for the big religious sites, we walked right into the Church of the Holy Sepulchre and there were maybe 30 people inside the entire complex and no real lines on the tomb and site of the crucifixion. The tour guide said it had been like this since the war started and many in his line of work had gone bankrupt.
  • most of the big tourist hotels are being propped up by direct payments from the government in exchange for housing settlers from the north who were evacuated. Our hotel, right on the Tel Aviv beach, was at least half full of these people who had been living there full time for months. On the weekends Israelis from outside of Tel Aviv would fill up the hotel for beach going but during the week it was empty except for the housing. We only realized this because there were tons of children during the week who were being shuttled to and from schools and it didn’t make sense that would be happening for tourists.
  • as an American what stood out to me was the lack of homeless people in Israel because this is utterly inescapable in the US. I guess I’m glad my taxes are ensuring people somewhere are staying off the streets but it made me angry that my taxes are being used to prop up a foreign social safety net at the expense of mine here. The housing market in Tel Aviv is grossly overpriced relative to wages. Most of the people I talked to wanted to immigrate to the US for the higher salaries.
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[-] geikei@hexbear.net 86 points 6 months ago

Funny to remember how widespread making fun of the "Soviet Gerontocracy" was in the 70s and 80s in western media and politics. This is so so so much worse. Suslov, Brezhnev and Chernenko at their worst and most decrepit state were monsters of vitality and intellect compared to what we are seeing from Amerikkka these days.

You can put renal failure induced encephalopathy Andropov on the debate stage 5 minutes before he died and Biden would still seem barely sentient comperatively

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[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 86 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)
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[-] FALGSConaut@hexbear.net 86 points 5 months ago

Armoured vehicles donated to Ukraine by Canada not suitable for driving off road

Lmao what a joke, the MIC can't even make an off road vehicle anymore. They break down when you try to take them cross country. Good thing all war takes place on paved roads then right?

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 85 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Convinced this tiktok phillipines shit is feds.

The "their flag upside down" shit reads as cia to me. If this was on twitter you'd do a search for the phrase and find it in dozens of very slightly differently worded posts by fake accounts.

EDIT:

I'm also convinced that the posts about it on /r/thedeprogram are also feds.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TheDeprogram/comments/1do86bb/america_what_the_fuck_are_you_doing_what_is_this/

20day old sus account.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TheDeprogram/comments/1doiylu/am_i_the_only_one_being_bombarded_with_content/

Account with similar karma quantity, hasn't posted in 1 month, before that it didn't post in 1 year.

Call me tinfoil hat my fed-dar is going off.

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[-] sempersigh@hexbear.net 84 points 5 months ago

lol blueanon does it again folks

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[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 84 points 6 months ago

bah gawd its TIME magazine with the steel chair

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[-] Rx_Hawk@hexbear.net 83 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

In case anybody forgot, the Biden campaign signaled he would only run for one term in 2019.

Campaign advisers argue that announcing his intention to only serve one term and signalling that he will choose a younger running mate and cabinet would increase Biden's chances of being the Democratic nominee.

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 83 points 6 months ago

One of the most interesting aspects of a declining empire is the anxiety it creates in those administrating it. There are many factions seeking to undo the decline and they all disagree heavily on how to go about that, the result of this division is that they are tearing it apart even more.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 83 points 5 months ago

The BBC is now editing out scenes in shows that reference non-binary people existing.

https://nitter.poast.org/KaskaJessica/status/1806793749886033933

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[-] Rx_Hawk@hexbear.net 82 points 6 months ago

A few media outlets are using this pic, I’m sure to make him look more vigorous. I’m just getting violent fascist vibes.

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[-] Xx_Aru_xX@hexbear.net 82 points 6 months ago
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[-] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 81 points 6 months ago

Macron in a lot of ways seems to be following the Obama playbook. He's a young, by most accounts competent manager of an empire in decline wedded to his neoliberal ways while espousing hope and change. Due to the fact that neoliberalism can't actually do anything besides make a small circle of people an immense amount of money, the state atrophies anyway and brings about mass support for the far-right as the only viable alternative. Macron and Obama both will leave office having done their best to make sure a fascist government gets elected.

[-] DanicaTheRebel@hexbear.net 80 points 6 months ago

NGL, watching insufferable radlibs and BlueMAGA types eat their own shit is pretty enjoyable. data-laughing

This is what you get you you rally behind the decrepit husk in charge of a decaying genocidal empire.

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 78 points 5 months ago
[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 78 points 6 months ago

Are we back? Yes we're

Gigachad Chad Neutral Beta (Fe)Male Virgin Cuck
Prigozhin (gotta remember him fondly on the 1 year anniversary of his rebellion) Putin (lil downgrade for uncle Vlad despite the North Korea visit, he's allowing too many security Ls in Russia these days) Zelensky (just hanging around surviving, respect) FPV drone operators (heartless freaks) TCC (accelerating the population collapse by rounding up every 23 year old car mechanic)
Hamas, PIJ, Qassam, PFLP and all resistance groups in Gaza (Allah's bravest soliders) Hezbollah (accelerating the collapse of pissrael by pounding their north) My soon to be born son (I hope he doesn't rebel and become a cuck) Ukraine peace summit attempts (so funny that the try to make a peace agreement while speaking ONLY to the losing side) UAE (such a deranged nation, hate them as much as the US and Israel)
The people of Gaza (bravest people ever) Houthis (defeated the great satan in a naval war and still shooting Israel ships like true chads) Euro 2024 (great football, but seeing European circlejerk about European greatness makes me seeth) Western journalists (thank you for proving that this is the least honorable profession) Sunni islamists (unironically supporting Israel against Hezbollah because of muh Ahlul Sunnah)
Yahya Sinwar (still undefeated) Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah (always speaking from a position of strength, showing the "peaceful protest" cucks how it's done) Fidias (random Cypriot youtuber who won an EU parliament seat, this is how much respect the EU parliament deserves) Emmanuel Macron (very happy that he has initiated the collapse of the cuck European centre-right) Netanyahu (eat shit cuck)
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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 77 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

US mobilisation is occurring. Ignore the bullshit about evacuations, the fleet will be used as a floating base for special forces operations to deploy from under the cover story of evacuations.

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[-] JamesConeZone@hexbear.net 77 points 6 months ago
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[-] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 76 points 6 months ago

Shit's going down in Kenya:

Of the Kenyan protestors killed by Kenyan pigs so far, at least 8 were cadre from the Communist Party of Kenya:
https://twitter.com/BookerBiro/status/1805632212609458629?mx=1
https://twitter.com/BookerBiro/status/1805713069127221381?mx=1

The government threatened to shut down a Kenyan news channel: https://twitter.com/KTNNewsKE/status/1805592519507374399?mx=1

Kenyans throwing rocks at some fancy club that is owned by a Kenyan MP:
https://twitter.com/africansinnews/status/1805631555450106142?mx=1

Kenyans storming the Parliament and burning shit:
https://twitter.com/redstreamnet/status/1805597168377483624?mx=1

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[-] ShimmeringKoi@hexbear.net 76 points 6 months ago

Okay, so we're all eyerollingly familiar with the "revolution betrayed, same as the old boss" trope in media and pop history, usually aimed at anything leftist to imply that nobody can ever escape recreating the nightmarish qualities of the status quo, because it turns out that the way things are is just The Way Things Are, for good reason, as nature and your wise betters ordained. It's the natural order, and naive radicals who think they can build something different are destined to be seduced by wealth and power into becoming the very despots they blah blah blah, we know how it goes.

As a cultural artifact of capitalist realism and a method of control, it's a well-examined phenomenon. But I want to examine it as an artifact of liberal guilt. Specifically, guilt for supplanting feudalism and then immediately overseeing the horrors of the industrial revolution both inside the core and without. Seeing the way liberals now are sealing their eyes and ears to any evidence of their ideology's culpability in what's going on in the world, and having observed their Quixotic "cannot fail, only be failed" attitude for some time, the Revolution Betrayed narrative now so obviously aligns with other liberal copes that I'm kind of embarrassed I didn't see it before. They believe that they are the best (only) "realistic" option, that if they can't do it then it can't be done. If their ideology and mode of production has failed to deliver a better world after four hundred years, then that means a better world simply is not possible, and anyone who says otherwise is either lying or stupid.

I think the fact that they think this is inevitable also goes a long way to explaining their semi-mystical view of power. "Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely" Everyone bows sagely. I don't even necessarily disagree with the basic take here, but they just leave it at this vague truism that is inevitably leveled at those seeking the power to liberate themselves, but not at those from whom people need liberating. Because their power is ordained by law, by the natural order. It turns the phrase into a masochistic civility fetish (literally, like a totem) that whispers to you that it's okay not to fight, that it's "evil" to fight dirty even for your life, and that the most morally pure thing you can experience is defeat. Secular Calvinism and lack of education have done a number on us all here in the states and resulted in generations of ~~highly propagandized "too smart for politics" rubes who are narrow-minded about most things but shockingly credulous about state enemies, utterly sanctimonious but completely lacking knowledge of past and present,~~ liberals, I realized I was just describing liberals, this post is getting away from me.

Anyway, thoughts on "Revolution Betrayed narratives as Liberalism's Pyramid Head"?

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[-] batsforpeace@hexbear.net 76 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

been slacking on posting in the newsmega but I can't let this shitpost in verbal form from the Polish president during the Swiss Ukraine summit go unposted:

In the part of the world which I represent, Russia is often called 'the prison of nations', and for good reason, because it is home to almost 200 ethnic groups, most of which became residents of Russia as a result of the methods used in Ukraine today. Russia remains the largest colonial empire, in a world which unlike European powers has never undergone the process of decolonization, and has never been able to deal with the demons of its past. As members of the international community we have to finally say there is no more space for colonialism in the modern world.

badeline-yeah-right

[-] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 80 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

You can really feel the Western intelligence agents going "Oh shit. Oh fuck. The anti-colonialism rhetoric is coming back and Russia and China is using it against us. Okay, let's keep calm: if we just portray Russia and China as the colonialists so that the developing world won't side with them, then our soft power will remain intact."

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 76 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Starmer is going to put Israel lobbyists in every single senior government position.

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 74 points 6 months ago

Julian Assange expected to be freed after 5 years in UK prison under US plea deal

Article

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has accepted a plea deal with the US government that will allow him to avoid jail time in the states over his leaking of top secret military information.

Assange is expected to plead guilty to violating the Espionage Act and receive credit for time served for the five years he spent behind bars in the UK while fighting extradition to the US, according to court documents and reports.

Assange, of Australia, was charged with conspiracy to obtain and disclose national defense information for releasing classified reports of the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq on his WikiLeaks site, according to the documents.

He’s expected to be released from UK custody after he pleads guilty during a federal US court hearing in the Northern Mariana Islands, a commonwealth of the US this week.

[-] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 74 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

guilty during a federal US court hearing in the Northern Mariana Islands

What the backwards fuck? Kangaroo court bullshit. He exposed crimes. Willful war crimes.

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[-] HelltakerHomosexual@hexbear.net 74 points 6 months ago

i haven't seen anyone mention this, but New Caledonia is rebelling against french rule right now

french settlers are forming paramilitaries to continue their occupation and colonialism at any cost, france refuses to grant independence, shit is getting heated

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[-] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 74 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Thank god liberals have started talking about replacing Biden. They’re just in time for it to be only 5 years too late

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[-] SorosFootSoldier@hexbear.net 74 points 6 months ago

Military general does worst coup in color revolution history, is immediately arrested.

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[-] GenderIsOpSec@hexbear.net 73 points 6 months ago

Watched the Debate for fun and giggles and was not disappointed. It's real Falling Roman Empire hours, all we need is for Trump to pay the secret service to make him the president and history has repeated itself as a farce marx-ok

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[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 73 points 6 months ago
[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 72 points 6 months ago

https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1805450204541284734

I've pointed out on many occasions that the Russians have the capability to launch a strategic offensive in Ukraine basically any time they want to.

But what I have not addressed is conditions. What would they want it to look like? How would they know when to "roll tanks?"⬇️

Critical to this analysis is just how successful the Russian decision to adopt a "ground and pound" approach to destroying the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been. Despite the full and enthusiastic backing of NATO and a Ukrainian numerical advantage for much of the war, the Russians have maintained a lopsidedly positive loss-exchange ratio against their enemies throughout. Ukraine is going into demographic collapse while Russian society at large has barely noticed the war.

@MNormanDavies pointed out some time ago that the Stavka has placed a heavy emphasis on efficiency in this war. Many Russian decisions at the operational-strategic level can be explained simply by their seeking the most efficient means to inflict mass casualties on the AFU with the lowest risk to themselves. Thus, any decision to transition to high-speed, mobile warfare from low-speed, positional war can be expected to follow that rubric. In other words, the Russians will launch an offensive to rout the AFU after its back is broken in positional war, rather than attack seeking to "change the game" and defeat the Ukrainians in mobile war. The "game" heavily favors the Russians and they're not in a rush to change it!

The difference between these scenarios can be seen quite easily by comparing two very successful offensives: Operation Bagration in 1944 and the 1975 Ho Chi Minh Offensive. Bagration routed the once-mighty Army Group Center - at the cost of 180,000 killed in action, three times the total Russian death toll of this war. I'm sure the Russians would much prefer the 8,000-strong butcher's bill of North Vietnam's war-ending 1975 operation - and they have the strategic insight to see that modern Ukraine, as a corrupt and deeply dysfunctional garrison state propped up by endless foreign aid, is far more akin to South Vietnam than Nazi Germany.

So what does this look like in practice? The Russians are going to keep poking and prodding in their usual methodical way until part of the line collapses "in depth," and then all hell is going to break loose. That could actually be quite soon - for instance, the recent Russian maneuver in Kharkov was likely intended to accelerate this timeline - but regardless, the State Department will be warming up their helicopters shortly afterwards.

As an addendum, it's just occurred to me that the Ukrainian Hundred Days Offensive of summer 2023 could be likened to Lam Son 719 as a poorly conceived and executed offensive maneuver by an army that had no real idea what it was actually getting itself into... perhaps a topic for examination later.

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[-] FLAMING_AUBURN_LOCKS@hexbear.net 72 points 6 months ago

Something I wonder about when I post in threads like this is the possibility of it being sifted through one day by historians, of some sort. Whether that’s internet archivists digging around the wreckage of the old worldwide web for lost media 20 years from now, or scholars from a post-internet empire 5 centuries from now trying to salvage whatever data they can from what they view as the height of human civilisation. Just as the tiniest Roman shopping list carved onto stone would give us insight into what life was like for a distant ancestor of ours, our posts could give our descendants a glimpse into our world.

If you are a curious scholar or even a passionate amateur sifting through the digital detritus of the 2020s to learn what life was like in the leadup to the third world war, i have only one message for you: MARG BAR ISRAEL

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[-] healthkick@hexbear.net 72 points 6 months ago

More debate commentary because I’m watching it late:

Biden: it’s the finest military in the world. No one wants to [inaudible] mess with us [inaudible]

No one wants to mess with the US navy? Is there someone you forgot to ask??

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[-] VILenin@hexbear.net 72 points 6 months ago

Guys I don’t think Biden has the ability to actually form his own sentences anymore. Even about cornpop. They are all pre-scripted by his staffers and all he can do is robotically repeat a version of the script that has undergone some demented transformation in his swiss cheese brain regardless of the relevancy to the topic at hand, and if you try to ask him anything off-script or a follow-up question, or press him on anything he just short circuits like a “choose your own adventure” game that’s really just railroading you into only one possible ending

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 72 points 6 months ago

Luis Arce normally: cheems

Luis Arce when the US tries to coup him: swole-doge

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[-] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 72 points 6 months ago

Adoptee diaspora are often some of the most insufferable people. In Guatemala a lot of them get adopted by bougie liberals who fill their heads with US/ white superiority complexes. Then they occasionally come here with their white partners and tell us we’re stupid and backwards for not doing things their way like embracing neoliberalism more.

I bring them up because one of them got into our org and began his NATO-leftist bullshit almost immediately. Tried to purge me for being “imperialist” because of my positions on Russia/Ukraine war.

He ended up getting purged instead. He now lives in a gated community with his white wife where he continues to post about how our org has been compromised by Russia.

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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2024
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