Biden is going to run. It's July, he should have announced he wasn't seeking a second term but he didn't and it's too late to swap.
Biden is going to win because Trump has gone full mask off as a fascist and the competition could be a potato.
Then we'll be stuck with a sunsetting neoliberal and vaguely hoping he steps down at some point so his ACAB-proving VP can take over.
Then she's going to lose 2028 because literally no one likes her and the Republic falls anyways.
Yeah like imagine if 4 years ago he pledged to be one term president, that he viewed himself as a “transition president” and as a “bridge” to the next leader “not as anything else”.
Much like Bidens pier, his bridge led to lies as well.
It's not too late until the convention is over. That's literally what it's for. Biden can direct his pledged delegates to vote for his chosen successor, whoever that might be.
It's too late. Dropping out now practically guarantees Trump wins in November.
I don't know that he's actually significantly worse off than he was before, but he may be heading to the point where, regardless of his health, he has lost the confidence of the electorate in his health.
This debate, and all of his post-debate has hurt him, surely. But its detached from reality to suggest that Biden wasn't "severely injured" going into this debate. The difference was that we saw an energized, verbal, focused, able to maintain eye contact and remember the first half of his sentence Joe Biden during the SOTU back in March. Bidens debate was a geriatric who is clearly "sunsetting". Bidens post debate interviews re-enforced that.
Biden needs to be leading by 5 (50-55%) in the polls nationally to demonstrate that he had the "confidence" of the electorate. He was leading by 5 in 2020 and barely managed a victory in the EC by 40k net votes. If Biden is at 45% in the polls, he's not winning the election. Biden is at 35% and dropping.
Biden hasn't had the confidence of the electorate, basically ever, in this election cycle. At no point has he been "winning" or even really viable in this campaign. This is just purely what the data show us. Its what Nate Silvers been saying for over a year, its what Ezra Klein has been saying for a long time. The apologists around Biden protected him from any kind of real primary, or significant criticism in what has been the most critical period for evaluating his sufficiency around him as candidate. We were prevented from doing the kind of due diligence required.
Main points, Biden wasn't winning this when it wasn't about his health. Layer in the appallingly clear indications around his health and extrapolate. Biden was doing way better in terms of demonstrating his ability to "be the president" with the SOTU back in March. Draw a line from then to now, and then see where that line puts you 3 months from now. If you've ever had an elderly family member "sunset" on you, it is like, shocking how fast it happens.
“It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010,” Clooney wrote. “He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”
Biden is going to make some snide remark about him now...
Just like he has to every other supporter who didn't give 100% loyalty forever.
Remember when we all made fun of trump for shit like this?
People are burying their heads in the sand and will act shocked and point fingers when Biden loses rather than actually try to do something about it while there's still time.
Biden is going to make some snide remark about him now…
"Listen, folks, you gotta understand, this guy, he’s just... well, y'know, he's a real... um, like a, uh, y'know, a complete... ah, c'mon man, he’s a real knucklehead, can't even... y'know, get it right, it's just... malarkey."
If actors want to have an opinion that’s fine. But commenting like they have any clout or authority to ask something like this? Screw that. I’m tired of the entertainment crowd messing around in politics.
I thought the people saying vote blue no matter who wouldn't care who the nominee would be.
In the booth, on election day, sure.
But that's still months away. No reason to not spend today trying to find someone people want to vote for. Someone who's actually likely to finish the term.
Besides, you have to rememeber there's a large segment of left(ish) voters who may not show up on election day unless there is a leadership change. Keeping Biden would almost guarantee they stay home.
I wonder if this is just like how we knew shit was getting real when Tom Hanks spoke out about catching Covid
I'm not sure Biden dropping out is such a great idea. Biden has a lot of supporters among Democratic voters. I'm not sure there is another democrat with his same level of support. There were a lot of contenders for the nomination in 2020, Biden beat 'em all. I think there are a fair number of independents who are motivated by preventing a second Trump term, so they'd vote for anyone who isn't Trump. Biden meets that criteria. I get why Biden makes people nervous, but who would be better? Who has the same level of support among the diverse democratic voter base?
Did you watch the debate? I was all on board with Biden until he shit the bed. We needed someone with the stamina to stand up to Trump's gish gallop, and instead Joe finally beat Medicare.
If he is on the ballot I will vote for him, knowing that I am really voting for his advisers and staff to run the country after 8 pm. But any of the names being thrown about that have experience as Governor or in national politics will be acceptable. Harris, yes, but also Newsom, Whitmer, and any of the others. Harris would be easiest to slot in, since she is technically on the same ballot.
Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say "I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I'm staying home?" It's more likely the opposite, that people aren't looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.
Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say "I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I'm staying home?"
I mean, yeah, I kinda do. There are a lot of democratic voters who don't know who Newsom or Whitmer are, but they know Uncle Joe, the guy who was Obama's vice for eight years.
It's more likely the opposite, that people aren't looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.
Is it? I don't know.
Like you said, if Biden's on the ticket you'll vote for him. I think a lot of people will do the same.
The problem with this argument is it only works for people who show up to vote, and if the Dems don't get people, particularly young people, inspired enough to do so, then they'll lose. Fear only works as a motivator for so long, at some point, you need to provide a carrot and not just the stick.
if Biden's on the ticket you'll vote for him.
I know I'd vote for a cat if it was on the ticket. Even an orange one. And I'd feel better about it than voting for Biden, since I'd know nobody was lying to me about it's ability to do the job.
It would be more entertaining than sad anyway.
Why don't Biden's supporters just VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO like they tell everyone else to?
Right? All of the sudden Democrats are really concerned about who the Dem candidate is, even though I thought that didn't matter.
I don't think you're taking into account the dynamics of Biden's situation here. He no longer has the support he once had. Almost anyone would do at least as well as Biden is doing now. And it'll only get worse for him.
The Democrats need to switch to a contested convention as fast as possible. Other hopefuls need to start talking as though Biden is already out, and make their case for the nomination.
I think it's the exact opposite. With biden or kamala trump has the best chance. Any biden supporting group who would jump over to trump or not vote if biden pulled out, I think would be minimal. Nobody is energized for biden, everyone is worried about trump.
If he did drop out for someone else, younger and able to speak clearly, I think we'd have a wave of enthusiasm. Imagine another debate with trump and a younger well spoke replacement, trump would be trounced.
Bring in any of the potentials mentioned (except kamala, I can't stress this enough), and I'd feel way more excited for the election. It ain't gonna happen now, but just saying. With biden staying in people are righteously nervous.
The problem is (for me at least) he's recently shown he can't campaign like he did in 2020, and he needs to surpass that effort right now.
rich actor says something dumb, news at 11.
Fuck you George, I was tired.
Nobody begins to tackle the constitutionality of Biden leaving after some of the primaries have closed. Every primary that has closed will not have had the opportunity to vote for whoever replaces Biden. The right will rip us a new one for installing a candidate without voting for them and for once they'd be right. With democracy on the line we cannot forgo democracy.
A contested convention, while rare, would be legal.
I've never heard of this. If Biden does win the primary would this still be an option or is it dependent on him coming up short?
It's still an option.
America doesn't have legal constructs around political parties so whatever the fuck the democrats do won't go against US law - its all just "tradition".
It's not entirely democratic at the convention, even in a typical election cycle. Recall that 15% of the delegates are "unpledged party leaders and elected officials" (superdelegates).
That aside, I don't think there's a constitutional issue here with respect to replacing Biden. If Dems decided to select the candidate via musical chairs or Parcheesi, to my knowledge that's a party matter (though voters would undoubtedly take a dim view of such antics).
They changed the superdelegate rules years ago. They don't get to vote on the first ballot.
It depends on how things are run, but unless there's a pre-decided consensus choice, multiple ballots would be likely.
And for this choice I'm not entirely sure it's wrong for party leaders and elected officials to have a vote. It's not like the Biden delegates were selected at random from the public to represent it in a momentous decision. No one thought the delegates would be anything other than a formality. They were likely selected as a reward for service to Biden or as a favor to some local official.
There are no constitutional implications to a party's nomination process so long as it doesn't violate the law with regard to discrimination and the like. If Biden withdrew you get a brokered convention. If he withdrew after being nominated, the party's rules would place his VP nominee at the top of the ticket (although ballots would likely still have his name due to state laws and logistics).
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