True story: half the country doesn't even know she's in yet.
Had to tell 3 peeps at dinner yesterday what's up.
I'm not alone.
I get how there are people who don't follow politics, but man... how do you avoid news like this?
I mean, technically, she's not in until the convention... but you would think it would be common knowledge unless you're a recluse or a child who doesn't know most people by name.
Someone more famous than I (Meryl Streep?) once suggested that upon graduation, one should be mandated to drive a taxi for a year, just to see what it's "really like" out there.
You'll have to take my word for it, she's so right.
People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that'll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened...and, yet....
I just worked customer service for a decade. After awile you just take it in stride when an adult is functionally illiterate. Leaving aside the people who think Democrat and Republican have to do with the dictionary definitions of Democracy and Republic and nothing else.
People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that'll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened...and, yet....
...yet they find that one thread on Nextdoor where one person claimed that it happened in their child's classroom and a lot of self-righteous pearl clutching. Therefore, that must be the truth.
I honestly wish I could look away and just be blissfully ignorant. Fuck I'm not even American.
I think we are all in literal Hell. That's the only explanation that makes sense that other people are so clueless. We are all dead and in Hell; they are actors put here to torment us.
I'd like to remind everyone that 8 years ago, the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly. There was tons of discussion after the election about how the polls could be so wrong.
I think Fivethityeight's explanation went something like...
If a candidate is only polling 40% to their opponents's 60%, and you were to run the election 10 times with a different sampling of voters each time, it doesn't mean that the candidate will lose by 60% every time. It means they're going to win four times out of ten.
Don't let polls lull you into either complacency or despair. The only thing polls are really good for is giving pundits something to talk about in the 24 hour news cycle. Polls don't decide the election. Only actual votes on actual ballots that are actually submitted in time decide the election.
And this messaging is a large part of what led to low democrat turnout when Hillary was running for office. Her early campaign had basically been “lol don’t worry about this, he’s an idiot who doesn’t gave a chance of winning.” It wasn’t until about a month before the actual election that someone in her campaign team realized this would lull voters into a false sense of security. Suddenly, their entire tone changed from “he has no chance of winning” to “oh for fucks sake please go vote”. But it was too little, too late. Democrat voters stayed home, and handed the win to Trump.
Well this time Harris has been telling everyone that Trump is trying to end democracy from the beginning
Sounds like you're thinking of 538's election needle, not polling data. If a candidate has 60% of the votes in a poll, assuming the poll is accurate, they win 100% of the time. The standard deviation on a population this big is practically 0
Thats absolutely not how polling statistics would work.
There was an acknowledged gap in polling in 2016 that excluded likely trump voters. It has since been resolved and polling in 2020 and 2022 was highly accurate.
With that said, I am not advocating for taking polls as gospel, 2016 showed us there can be flaws and mistakes. At the end of the day, I don't give a fuck what the polls say, we all need to show up and vote. If Kamala had a 50 point lead in my state, I am still showing up and voting for her.
538 put Trump's 2016 chances at about 75%. That means Trump needed to flip two coins and have them both come up heads. It wasn't a ridiculous outside chance at all.
People have also let Comey and his last minute letter off the hook. Polls were really close, but favored Hillary. That letter came too late for any poll to absorb the new information, but it very likely tipped the scales. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that election--it never should have been so close in the first place--but that very likely shifted the outcome.
Very very true, I put time and money into Bernie Sanders second bid, the polling made it look like he was going to win the primary in a devistating landslide. It never materialized, his base, if they ever were serious weren't serious enough to actually make it to a polling place on the day of. Very disappointing. Never think the polling will match the voting, they can be very different animals.
Michigan fucking loves her. Damn.
also, Trump did nothing for them
What state could claim he did something for them? That this once again is a close race constantly boggled my mind.
state of dispair
State of deez nutz.
Ask Wisconsin how that Foxconn contract he helped secure for them turned out.
(For those not familiar, and disinclined to investigate further, the answer is "Not great.")
Wisconsin here. I'm really surprised that vocal trumpers in this state aren't strung by their balls by fellow citizens.
But then again people still vote for Ron Johnson and Robin Vos
A picture = 1K words:
Is there a source or context? Otherwise this is just a random graphic
Also, Trump's a rapist, convicted felon, and just plain weird.
I'm glad you went easy on the lying treasonous cowardly pedophile traitor, Fatty McFelon.
Warms me heart.
Yes, yes we do. We love women leaders, we keep voting for them.
Get your shit together PA. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is game over.
Kamala Harris is going to wipe the floor with Trump.
I need you to be right.
We are!
She can’t do it alone, and we can’t assume that she’ll win. Keep pushing until she’s sworn in Jan 2025.
This is Trump’s last chance. The republicans will literally stop at nothing to ensure he wins.
Those margins are all uncomfortably close - "wipes out" is needlessly bombastic.
I think that "wipes out" here is referring to the lead that Trump had in the polls previously. All the states went from a clear lead for Trump over Biden, to basically even, with one exception showing a clear lead.
I think that it suggests a competitive race, rather than one side coasting to victory. It is hard to draw concrete conclusions still, but the clear lead is definitely gone
I think it was John Stewart said we're happy to have gone from Trump lead to statistical tie.
I'm not sure the country is ready for a gay VP, but my god Pete would destroy JD in the debate.
Let's just get the orange turd defeated, we're already pushing boundaries enough here. Pick a safe VP that calms the boomers and carry on later.
I think Trump proved that literally anyone can be president.
This is awesome, the momentum looks like it’s going to keep up! The +11 point lead in MI is nothing to doubt, let’s go President Harris!
I hope her campaign keeps reminding voters everywhere of project 2025, and exactly how it’s going to negatively impact their lives.
Overall the polls have been encouraging for her, but that MI one look really wrong. 538 has her about down a point on average.
538 shows the same result, Kamala +11, for the specific Morning Consult poll cited in the chart.
But you are correct that this poll is an outlier compared to other polls, and we probably need more data and for the race to settle a bit before we have a sense of the actual margin.
I'm hesitant to put too much stock in any numbers a single week into her candidacy. It also bears repeating that no poll matters unless people vote.
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