this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
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English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
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English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 27 points 40 minutes ago (2 children)

So the israelis are just obscuring all military casualties from the Iranian strikes, right? It's completely unbelievable with the number of confirmed hits on IDF/related institutions that no military personnel have been killed.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 20 points 27 minutes ago (1 children)

Western media just takes dictation. Every time I see "lightly injured" used for civilians I have doubts. Of course - Israel wants sympathy but they also don't want to seem like losers.

[–] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 10 points 15 minutes ago (1 children)

Western media just takes dictation.

If our comrades here learn nothing of media literacy other than this, they will still be doing OK. When we talk about the US government or bourgeoisie “controlling” the newsmedia, it’s not done by someone at the CIA calling up a newsroom producer and telling them to talk about how Iran is only 0.001 seconds away from having a nuke. It’s how an entire ecosystem of “experts” has been cultivated (just to pick one person as an example, look at Sam Vinograd) over the decades. These experts are the only people who are ever brought on, or the only people who are spoken to off-camera. These experts often have some sort of access or just air of authority that the media needs. So they just unquestioningly repeat what is said. If you question the narrative that’s being put out there, your connections get frozen and now when it comes time to get an inside scoop or have some former admiral on who looks like he knows what he’s talking about, there’s no one who will return your calls.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 6 points 9 minutes ago* (last edited 2 minutes ago)

What confirmed hits? All the footage we have is of bombing population centres. There have been attempts to hit military targets inside these areas, such as Mossad headquarters, IDF buildings, etc, but due to the relative inaccuracy of the missiles, these have missed by hundreds of meters.

The direct hit on the "Ministry of Interior" building didn't actually directly hit it.

Source with geolocation

[–] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 19 points 36 minutes ago (1 children)

How much will the Israeli war on Iran cost?

Hebrew Channel 13 wrote on its website about the cost of the Israeli war on Iran:

"Armament, compensation, and disruption of commercial life - how much will Israelis pay for the war on Iran?" Even if the war against Iran ends within days, its cost has become significant: security costs, property damage, disruption of economic life, and compensation for commercial interests and citizens. The total cost will be between 50-100 billion shekels, a price that every Israeli will feel.

Not clear whether that 50-100bn figure (approx $10-20bn USD) is simply totalling all the costs so far or a general estimate for the overall cost the war will have. Total GDP of the entity is around $500bn USD for context.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 11 points 30 minutes ago (1 children)

The total cost will be...

That reminds me of the first "total cost" estimates in the US for the Iraq War. I don't remember but I think the media first quoted $50+ billion.

[–] invo_rt@hexbear.net 5 points 14 minutes ago

Just about that cost. Doing some searching from things written at that time, the upper limit seems to be in the $100~$200B range. It turned out to be $3000B and that's probably a low-ball estimate.

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 54 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (3 children)

Trump..... Uses an MOAB in Afghanistan, used nuclear brinksmanship against north korea, just YESTERDAY mulls tactical nukes in Iran and libs wonder why those of us outside of the US would want nukes or some deterrent. Even your dems are bloodthirsty genocidal maniacs and a guy like trump or worse is one election away in a highly flawed democracy with racist gerrymandering...... And we should just trust this international "order". why-post-this These fuckers will lead us all into an abyss

[–] Monk3brain3@hexbear.net 24 points 47 minutes ago (3 children)

I honestly think the Dems would already have declared war

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 19 points 37 minutes ago* (last edited 36 minutes ago)

Harris might have even carried out strikes at the same time that Israel did, to show how they're "joint partners against Iranian authoritarianism and terror" or whatever word salad the finest in the Democratic Party can produce

And who knows if that would have had a different ultimate result but it would be unquestionably worse than Israel alone FAing and now FOing while Trump sits back and says "Two weeks, folks! Mr Khamenei, very bad guy, we want him to surrender! He doesn't want to, but he will! Fordow! Our beautiful bombers, people are saying they're the biggest and best bombers the world has ever seen, just yesterday a handsome general walked up to me and said it! Very powerful! But I'm a nice guy, I'll give them two weeks!"

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 16 points 44 minutes ago

The same dems that brag about or roll their eyes at the mention of countless dead on iraq? I'm shocked

[–] Wertheimer@hexbear.net 12 points 33 minutes ago (1 children)

The platform they approved (PDF) at the DNC last year attacked Trump from the right on Iran and insisted that Iran could develop nukes "in a matter of weeks." They criticized Trump for not bombing Iran:

In June 2019, when Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance aircraft operating in international airspace above the Straits of Hormuz, Trump responded by tweet and then abruptly called off any actual retaliation, causing confusion and concern among his own national security team.

[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 7 points 17 minutes ago

Thank you this is something I was looking for but I forgot which specifically

[–] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 8 points 25 minutes ago

i totally understand why Mao said all that stuff abt the atomic bomb now

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[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 29 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 2 minutes ago) (2 children)

C4I's actual location got hit 3 hours ago hamas-red-triangle

correction: it's C4I, not C41

[–] cinnaa42@hexbear.net 9 points 32 minutes ago* (last edited 31 minutes ago)

The report I saw on C14(?) being hit said it was in Haifa. Those locations marked on the map don't seem to correspond to any of their buildings, at least based on what I can see on google maps

[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 8 points 39 minutes ago (1 children)

Do you mean C14? Channel 14?

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 7 points 33 minutes ago (1 children)

I believe they mean C4I, not C41?

[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 4 points 30 minutes ago (1 children)

I have no idea what that is

[–] NinaPasadena@hexbear.net 7 points 29 minutes ago* (last edited 28 minutes ago)

Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence.

Though maybe they did mean channel 14 in this case

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 19 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

Closest footage yet of a David's Sling kinetic hit to kill interception, two Stunner interceptors hit the re entry vehicle/warhead of the ballistic missile.

Video

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[–] jack@hexbear.net 59 points 2 hours ago (5 children)
[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 15 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

Holy shit, how did I not make this connection. 5d chess on Xi's part once again, god damn.

[–] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 7 points 13 minutes ago

That’s it, I’m out. I’m no longer opining or speculating if China isn’t doing enough or if there’s some ways they are doing a lot but we just don’t know or. Nope, I’m just gonna Trust the Plan and assuming the My President (xigma-male ) is doing the right thing.

[–] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 36 points 1 hour ago

xi-square-up go ahead, use all your anti-missile munitions on Israel.

[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 18 points 1 hour ago (2 children)

There was news that China will send some rare earth minerals to the US around 10 days ago, but nothing specific since then. Does anyone have any real info?

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 8 points 48 minutes ago

Mofcom says they are currently accelerating the examination process to approve export permits for rare earth materials. I believe that they are exporting for civilian use but not military, but I’m not sure how they can track the usage once they have reached the other end.

[–] geikei@hexbear.net 12 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

They made some deal on extending existing export licences and loosening controls for 6 months but china has put up a lot of bureaucratic hurdles in aquiring licences, making excuses for not sending stuff and demanding proof of use and sensitive information. The deal wasnt anything concrete and binding, just "we'll look into it and let you get some more". So that the hole in inventories isnt and wont be replenished and scarcity will continue. Hell china has slowed down in the digging up, buying and refining volumes already and those havent even picked up post "deal"

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 36 points 2 hours ago (3 children)

Nothing ever happens crowd (in regards to China's involvement in military geopolitics) are in tatters, myself included.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 15 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (10 children)

Don’t write China off yet. As I have been saying, if China threatens to stop the global economy, the conflict WILL end before Monday. There is nothing the US can do about it except to watch Wall Street stock market crash when it opens, should they refuse to a truce.

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 12 points 1 hour ago (2 children)

I've come to realise that China isn't as uninvolved as it may first appear, but is there any weight behind China threatening to "stop the global economy"? That seems like it would be a massive thumb on the scales from China even if they're more invested than they'll admit.

[–] jack@hexbear.net 12 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

If they feel that Iran has a handle on the situation (which appears to be the case for the moment, albeit we have limited intel), then I don't think they'll see the need to take a drastic step. Keep supplying components for making weapons, intel, and diplomatic support. Iran hasn't exactly gone out of their way to cultivate that degree of Chinese support, either.

[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 11 points 59 minutes ago (1 children)

Yeah from what I can tell it's more bloomer by the day. Iran's people are untied, they're standing strong, and slowly whittling down Israel's supply of interceptors, striking even in the day time now. So long as TACO Trump maintains his end of the bargain Iran is in a very good place. Increasingly looking like Israel massively miscalculated. The Chinese strategy will be what it's always been, "never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake."

[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 6 points 35 minutes ago

Certainly one good sign is Iranians have united around the government. Even women activists in prison have done so. Still, if US gets directly involved I fear things will take an unpredictable turn.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 8 points 1 hour ago

China absolutely has the capacity to do that, but they probably won’t though.

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[–] Cowbee@hexbear.net 1 points 4 minutes ago

I don't really blame people for being upset at China not taking a more proactive role in assisting Iran in a way where we can see it obviously, but I do think there was a lot of doomerism with respect to China that happened far too quickly. Iran seems to have a handle on things, and wins if the war is drawn out, arguably even if the US gets involved, so China's involvement seems to be more in the background for now.

Obviously, the situation can change, but for now I don't see reason to write China off as entirely passive either.

[–] BynarsAreOk@hexbear.net 1 points 8 minutes ago

Their "involvement" matters when the Iranians and the Palestinians stop dying. IMO some YT grifter using western MSM headlines which we know more than half the time are made to justify the infinitely expanding US MIC spending is not serious narrative at this point.

Yes Israel is running out of bombs and missiles. So anyway another bomb dropped in Gaza and Iran is still about to get nuked.

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