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Let's see if this leads to 1) a planned succession, like in Venezuela, 2) a secular, Ataturk-style revolution, or 3) complete civilizational collapse in Iran. I would give it 90/10/0.01 percent odds for those three possibilities.

Will the IRGC sink ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Will they set the Saudi oil fields ablaze? All I know is that somewhere in hell, Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger are smiling up at us.

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[–] peeonyou@hexbear.net 50 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (2 children)

🇮🇷 IRAN OFFICIALLY DENIES KHAMENEI DEATH

Iranian FM spokesperson Esmail Baghaei to ABC News: "Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian are safe and sound."

"Everything is being done in accordance with our plans, and our armed forces are conducting their defensive actions."

Source: TRT World

I'm thinking they're pushing this to try to get some people to check on him so they can find out where he's hiding.

[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 28 points 14 hours ago

Possible. Both sides have reasons for lying. I fully believe the Iranians would Weekend at Bernie's the supreme leader for a week or more while deciding whether they want to admit he was killed in enemy action to rally the people or claim he died of some other health condition and to tend to order of succession and locking down the government. As a rule if people are trying to topple your government a good way to do it is take out the leader and set off a crisis of who is in charge, by denying that and having people close to him pretend to be him stability is preserved. On the other side to urge on your factional splits to destroy Iran you'd want people to think there is a power vacuum so they'll step up their game in disobeying central orders.

So we won't likely know for certain until he makes a crystal clear HD video appearance referencing these events and it's been checked for signs of AI. Or at least a few days.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 29 points 14 hours ago

I don't think it matters whether he is dead or alive.

The IRGC will simply takeover if he is dead.

[–] TankieTanuki@hexbear.net 40 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (2 children)

During the invasion of Venezuela it was reported that the US bombed Chavez's mausoleum but it later turned out to be a psyop

Edit: It could have been mistaken misreporting rather than an intentional psyop

[–] BanMeFromPosting@hexbear.net 27 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

Kill every western "journalist". These people jerk themselves off with movies about how brave they are for exposing the catholic pedophile ring everyone already knows about or movies about "war-correspondents" (some comfortable white-collar dickhead repeating state department talking points) while suppressing the actual people doing actual investigative work and severing ties with anyone who accidentally stumbles upon something substantial to report, and they do it all for some deranged fetishizing of an ideal objective Reporting that does not exist. Kill them all, they are hyperliberals.

[–] Infamousblt@hexbear.net 96 points 17 hours ago (2 children)
[–] MemesAreTheory@hexbear.net 5 points 10 hours ago

Hijacking comment to say that Iranian State Media has now confirmed it.

[–] SorosFootSoldier@hexbear.net 45 points 17 hours ago

CNN is running with it too, I wait to see actual images of his body.

[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 81 points 17 hours ago (2 children)

I'm not believing it just because Israel says so. Wait until Iran confirms it.

Even if he is dead, the Iranian government is not organized around or dependent upon a single leader. The Guardian Council can appoint a new Supreme Leader, and they probably already have a succession plan in place. And even if they didn't, the President, the Parliament, the rest of the Guardian Council, and the military could keep the government structure intact.

[–] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 21 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago) (2 children)

It’s still a massive loss if true. Just like the loss of President Raisi and Maduro and Solemaini and Nasrallah. Khamenei was the most hardline and anti-reformist and anti-Israel element in the entire Iranian government. Best case scenario we get another like him, but it’s also possible we get a softened and more reformist replacement like with Hezbollah and Venezuela

In his absence, the civil government of Pez might get up to some real treasonous and defeatist fuckery

It’s not great person theory of history to acknowledge that individual figureheads represent coalitions of power and that it can be effective to kill the ones you oppose and let the more squishy reformist and defeatist elements live and steer the direction of the government via assassinations. This is what Israel and the US do with their repeated strikes at the head.

[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 23 points 16 hours ago

I don't think that's true. I also don't think the Hezbollah and Venezuelan situations are comparable.

[–] GaveUp@hexbear.net 12 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (2 children)

Does anybody with more knowledge of Islam and the Arab world know if the whole martyr thing would make Khamenei dying a different reaction than other world leaders?

Dude is like 90 years old if he gets killed he gets to be a martyr defending his state against Satan in his people's eyes instead of dying of prostate cancer or something lol

[–] RedNajm@hexbear.net 11 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

Arab here . I can't speak for everyone but martyrdom it an important concept in politics and history here

If he died by the hands of Pissrael, he would be seen as a hero by much more people probably, and that's not mentioning the large shia minority populations regionally who largely support him/Iran

[–] Johnny_Arson@hexbear.net 2 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

Well looks like that is the case now, US/Israel got him.

[–] RedNajm@hexbear.net 1 points 2 hours ago

Oh my God. And I just woke up....

Rest in peace.

[–] NoGodsNoMasters@hexbear.net 4 points 14 hours ago

can't say what this would mean for khameini or a similar figure dying dying if anything so take this with a pile of salt but i think martyrdom is pretty relevant for shiʽis, especially that of the 3rd Imam ḥusayn (and his entourage) at karbala which is commemorated every year and involves the largest annual pilgrimage in the world (something like 20 million people). for twelvers (the kind of shiʽi Iran is) in particular this seems to be a big and pretty emotional affair so if i had to guess i'd say it could have some weight

[–] Monk3brain3@hexbear.net 49 points 17 hours ago (3 children)

The Zionazi team of amerikka and pissrael want him dead hoping that Iran falls apart. That's literally the plan. Absolutely insane.

[–] KurtVonnegut@hexbear.net 43 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

I think there is almost zero chance of Iran "falling apart" just because Kahmenei died. The man was 87 years old.

[–] Monk3brain3@hexbear.net 9 points 14 hours ago

I agree. And it will turn into a longer conflict which I desperately hope Iran can weather and without too many civilian casualties. But fucking America and the Zionazi entity love killing civilians. Already 90 children dead. We really do live in the world fucking world

[–] peeonyou@hexbear.net 18 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

I think it's more of a blow to morale for the people than anything that they're hoping for. But honestly I think this is just a ruse to try to sniff out where he's hiding. If some upper folks start to panic and call around to find out Israel can probably sniff out those communications.

[–] queermunist@lemmy.ml 15 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

Another good reason for Iran to develop its intranet.

[–] Johnny_Arson@hexbear.net 1 points 6 hours ago

No Iran confirmed it now. He's dead sadly.

[–] barrbaric@hexbear.net 16 points 15 hours ago (2 children)

They're likely feeling very emboldened by Venezuela (which, in fairness, I think most people predicted wouldn't go the way it did).

[–] kristina@hexbear.net 19 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

Imagine if Venezuela sent missiles at Miami

[–] Monk3brain3@hexbear.net 7 points 14 hours ago

Yeah thats what I'm thinking. They're really feeling themselves after some successful imperialism.

[–] Leegh@hexbear.net 58 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

Iranian Foreign Minister claims he's still alive. Schrodinger's Khamenei I guess.

Edit: Cat Box opened, Khamenei found dead RIP.

[–] CommCat@hexbear.net 15 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

I've been watching presstv and while not admitting that he's dead, they did touch on the possible scenario that he was killed, and the host goes on about how honorable martyrdom is. Iran has a bad track record of keeping their top generals and nuclear scientists safe, so it's possible that Khamenei was killed. Should've built the Nuke...

EDIT: Presstv just confirmed that Khamenei has been Martyred.

[–] supafuzz@hexbear.net 43 points 17 hours ago

We're about to find out if Iran has imported juche necromancy

[–] allthetimesivedied2@hexbear.net 15 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

I had no idea any of this shit was going on. Jesus Christ.

[–] LeninWeave@hexbear.net 7 points 13 hours ago

There was build up for a long time, but this has all happened very quickly.

[–] Trying2KnowMyself@hexbear.net 5 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Now being reported by western media that it’s being reported by Iranian state media, trying to find the actual report…

[–] SorosFootSoldier@hexbear.net 38 points 17 hours ago

Start sinking the boats in the straight right now.

[–] Staines@hexbear.net 10 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

The Iranians wouldn't know if he's dead, that's the point of keeping his location secret.

Personally I hope he's dead and replaced with someone who believes in nuclear sovereignty.

[–] StarkWolf@hexbear.net 11 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Incredibly disrespectful to wish him dead, despite any positives you might imagine coming from it. An entire country is mourning but at least you got your wish, right?

[–] Staines@hexbear.net 2 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

Yes. Let's find out together. And thank you, I hope my wish comes true.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 24 points 17 hours ago (1 children)

OP, did you mean for your layout to be like this?...


Key points:

  • Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, senior Israeli official tells Reuters

  • Israel and US launched strikes on Iran

  • President Donald Trump says action will give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers

  • Hits reported in Israel and Gulf states as Iran retaliates

  • Attack triggers fear and panic as Iranians flee cities

  • Global airlines have cancelled flights across the Middle East

Let's see if this leads to...

  1. a planned succession, like in Venezuela

or

  1. a secular, Ataturk-style revolution

or

  1. complete civilizational collapse in Iran. I would give it 90/10/0.01 percent odds for those three possibilities.

Will the IRGC sink ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Will they set the Saudi oil fields ablaze? All I know is that somewhere in hell, Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger are smiling up at us.

[–] KurtVonnegut@hexbear.net 19 points 17 hours ago

The "Key Points" were copy-pasted from the Reuters article.

[–] Saymaz@lemmygrad.ml 21 points 17 hours ago (3 children)
[–] Saymaz@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 6 hours ago
[–] Johnny_Arson@hexbear.net 1 points 6 hours ago

Unfortunately it is true. He is dead.

[–] MemesAreTheory@hexbear.net 3 points 10 hours ago

Iranian State Media now confirming it. Maybe some humility along with reasonable doubt in the future.